Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

[J.C.]

It seems like the GFS runs keep trending with deeper troughs in the East, if anything like this remotely happens its going to be an extremely cold middle of the month.  There is some energy there like others have mentioned, but with it coming from the northwest, it duds out over the apps.

[South_MountainWX]

Didnt our last storm that gave CHS 20" of fantasy snow 8 days out or so, only show up on the GFS ? All these dud threats get confusing!? I think I remember people saying the wished the Euro would come on board, then it just turned into a dry cold front??

Euro flip floped around showed 12in of fantasy snow at one time for mby.

[GaWx]

The correlation of cold to wintry precip. at ATL appears like it may be highest in Feb. (of DJF). Out of 24 Feb's colder than 42 F or about 4-5+ colder than norm (we'll have a shot at this), a whopping 19 of the 24 had measurable SN/IP (other 5 had a T) and one other had a major ZR. Three of the 24 had major ZR's. Only one Feb. major ZR was in a noncold Feb. (2014).

In contrast, only just over 20% of those 42+ F had measurable SN/IP vs. the near 80% for the cold ones!

During the 24 coldest ones, there were 15 major winter storms incl. ZR: three had two majors; nine had one major...so, an impressive 12 of 24 had 1-2 majors. Compare this 50% rate to the other 112 Feb's. which had a mere 3 with a major...3%!! They were in 1894 (Feb near normal), 1952 (a weak Nino with Feb. a bit warmer than normal) and 2014 (Feb. near normal). So out of 18 Feb. ATL majors, 15 were within the 24 coldest of 136 Feb's! So, the warmest Feb. with a major was 1952 at 48.5. So, there were no majors during the 40 Feb's warmer than 48.5. Only 3 of 34 (9%) warmer than 48.5 with known exact SN/IP had measurable SN/IP compared to 80% for those colder than 42! That is an amazingly strong correlation!

The colder the better for major potential. When Feb. was colder than 40, a whopping 7 of 11 had 1+ major winter storms with a total of 9! That's in the stratosphere vs. Feb. climo, folks! For the Feb.'s that were 40-41.9 (where we may be headed if the cold models are right), 5 of 13 had 1+ majors (still an impressive 38%, way above climo...remember that only 3% that were 42+ F had a major) for a total of 6 majors.

Moral of the story: with this Feb. looking cold, there is reason for lots of hope at least. If we were not looking cold, I'd be very pessimistic. The colder the better for wintry precip. chances. Let's hope the cold models are correct! Keep in mind that 13 of the 24 coldest Feb's were during El Nino vs only ~8 if were proportional to overall climo. So, with our weak Nino, we have that on our side for cold chances.

I wrote the above before the 18Z GFS was out. Note that I was saying that if the cold model consensus were to verify, ATL would have a good shot at a 40-42 Feb., which has had a very impressive 5 of 13 with at least one major winter storm (38%, which is WAY above climo). However, what I still didn't think was that ATL would have a shot at sub 40 F due to the near normal ~45 F first 12 or so days. However, IF anything resembling the very cold 18Z GFS 6-16 were to somehow occur for 2/13-23 (~34 F for those 11 days), ATL would be near or even a little colder than 40 F for 2/1-23. That would obviously put ATL into a position of getting a sub 40 F Feb. Now, look at the stats I stated for the 12 sub 40 F ATL Feb.'s: a whopping 7 of 12 (58%) (stratospherically high vs overall Feb. climo) had 1 or 2 major winter storms (total of 9)!! The is one reason to root for a frigid solution like the 18Z GFS to somehow verify even though the odds are obviously low at this time (an outlier) and when considering how recent models have performed. Just think of the history based chances for major wintry wx if it were to occur though!

 

**Edited for one correction. There were 12 sub 40 F Feb.'s rather than 11. So, 7 of 12 had 1+ majors rather than 7 of 11. Regardless, the % is still way, way above the overall Feb. climo %.

[jburns]

 The correlation of cold to wintry precip. at ATL appears like it may be highest in Feb. (of DJF). Out of 24 Feb's colder than 42 F or about 4-5+ colder than norm (we'll have a shot at this), a whopping 19 of the 24 had measurable SN/IP (other 5 had a T) and one other had a major ZR. Three of the 24 had major ZR's. Only one Feb. major ZR was in a noncold Feb. (2014).

  In contrast, only just over 20% of those 42+ F  had measurable SN/IP vs. the near 80% for the cold ones!

 During the 24 coldest ones, there were 15 major winter storms incl. ZR: three had two majors; nine had one major...so, an impressive 12 of 24 had 1-2 majors. Compare this 50% rate to the other 112 Feb's. which had a mere 3 with a major...3%!! They were in 1894 (Feb near normal), 1952 (a weak Nino with Feb. a bit warmer than normal) and 2014 (Feb. near normal). So out of 18 Feb. ATL majors, 15 were within the 24 coldest of 136 Feb's! So, the warmest Feb. with a major was 1952 at 48.5. So, there were no majors during the 40 Feb's warmer than 48.5. Only 3 of 34 (9%) warmer than 48.5 with known exact SN/IP had measurable SN/IP compared to 80% for those colder than 42! That is an amazingly strong correlation!

 The colder the better for major potential. When Feb. was colder than 40, a whopping 7 of 11 had 1+ major winter storms with a total of 9! That's in the stratosphere vs. Feb. climo, folks! For the Feb.'s that were 40-41.9 (where we may be headed if the cold models are right), 5 of 13 had 1+ majors (still an impressive 38%, way above climo...remember that only 3% that were 42+ F had a major) for a total of 6 majors.

 

 Moral of the story: with this Feb. looking cold, there is reason for lots of hope at least. If we were not looking cold, I'd be very pessimistic. The colder the better for wintry precip. chances. Let's hope the cold models are correct! Keep in mind that 13 of the 24 coldest Feb's were during El Nino vs only ~8 if were proportional to overall climo. So, with our weak Nino, we have that on our side for cold chances.

 

I wrote the above before the 18Z GFS was out. Note that I was saying that if the cold model consensus were to verify, ATL would have a good shot at a 40-42 Feb., which has had a very impressive 5 of 13 with at least one major winter storm (38%, which is WAY above climo). However, what I still didn't think was that ATL would have a shot at sub 40 F due to the near normal ~45 F first 12 or so days. However, IF anything resembling the very cold 18Z GFS 6-16 were to somehow occur for 2/13-23 (~34 F for those 11 days), ATL would be near or even a little colder than 40 F for 2/1-23. That would obviously put ATL into a position of getting a sub 40 F Feb. Now, look at the stats I stated for the 11 sub 40 F ATL Feb.'s: a whopping 7 of 11 (64%) (stratospherically high vs overall Feb. climo) had 1 or 2 major winter storms (total of 9)!! The is one reason to root for a frigid solution like the 18Z GFS to somehow verify even though the odds are obviously low at this time (an outlier) and when considering how recent models have performed. Just think of the history based chances for major wintry wx if it were to occur though!

 

My head is spinning.  I'm not sure, but I think it would be easier just to take the ring back to Mt. Doom.  Less conditions and obstacles.  

[Cold Rain]

My head is spinning. I'm not sure, but I think it would be easier just to take the ring back to Mt. Doom. Less conditions and obstacles.

Hahahaha!

[GaWx]

My head is spinning. I'm not sure, but I think it would be easier just to take the ring back to Mt. Doom. Less conditions and obstacles.

Hehehe. I included the detailed historical facts to backup my assertion that there has been quite a strong correlation between solid cold and wintry chances in Feb in ATL (as a rep. for the SE). Simply put: IF the model consensus were to verify, the bulk of the SE would get a solidly cold Feb, which alone is a valid reason to be quite hopeful about wintry precip. later this month. Furthermore, the current weak Niño only helps the chances for a cold Feb.

[NCSNOW]

If yall get bored you can go read the new England thread. Another 12 to 18 event is getting underway. Unbeleivable

[Met1985]

If yall get bored you can go read the new England thread. Another 12 to 18 event is getting underway. Unbeleivable

lol I know right. Crazy turnaround for them. From nothing to historical.

[Cold Rain]

lol I know right. Crazy turnaround for them. From nothing to historical.

Good lesson for us.

[Met1985]

Good lesson for us.

We can only wish right! Hey we still have time.

[mackerel_sky]

Good lesson for us.

What lesson? Move to Boston?

Can't wait for GFS to bring the heartache in mere minutes!

[Stormsfury]

And pretty much these storm systems aren't being handled until virtually last minute. If we get one this winter down South, it'll be a last minute model sniff out.

[Jon]

And pretty much these storm systems aren't being handled until virtually last minute. If we get one this winter down South, it'll be a last minute model sniff out.

There's a pretty good indication on the OP's and means for a system rolling through mid month, sometime around the 15th-17th or so...If it happens, I wouldn't say it will be last minute...I think we'll be tracking it a good 5+ days out up until the event, aka lots of fantasy maps.

[mackerel_sky]

There's a pretty good indication on the OP's and means for a system rolling through mid month, sometime around the 15th-17th or so...If it happens, I wouldn't say it will be last minute...I think we'll be tracking it a good 5+ days out up until the event, aka lots of fantasy maps.

With the 0z showing alot warmer around the 15th, that's probly what will happen, cold , then warm storm, followed by more cold! Don't see any reason for that to change now! Longer wavelengths, snowpack, ssw, and unicorns. They were suppose to save us all winter, look at us now!?

[metalicwx366]

And pretty much these storm systems aren't being handled until virtually last minute. If we get one this winter down South, it'll be a last minute model sniff out.

Lol. Those storms up there are not being handled at the last minute. These Boston storms have been showing up Day 7+ except Juno which showed up at Day 4.

[buckeyefan1]

  

 

 

 

[superjames1992]

The SE ridge that is that isn't? Oh, no!

[franklin NCwx]

ridge.jpg

is that from this year?

[buckeyefan1]

is that from this year?

Yep...they just posted it on their fb page   

[mackerel_sky]

The SE ridge that is that isn't? Oh, no!

That's a dumb post from NOAA. If the ridge was that constant, we wouldn't have cold either

[franklin NCwx]

Yep...they just posted it on their fb page

lol.. weekend shift.

[Batman]

That's a dumb post from NOAA. If the ridge was that constant, we wouldn't have cold either

Agree. Nor would we have had a few storms directly through where they have their "ridge" located on that map. Many of us have been colder than normal and many of us have been wetter than normal. We have had bad fortune WRT timing and lack of blocking to get the two to come together properly. One could also argue that we have either had no PNA ridge or not enough of one to get an eastern trough that would steer the storm track properly with the old in place for us to score.

All of that is probably too much to explain on their weather page to the general public, but they still could have come with something better than the graphic and explanation posted.

[NRVwxfan.]

Agree. Nor would we have had a few storms directly through where they have their "ridge" located on that map. Many of us have been colder than normal and many of us have been wetter than normal. We have had bad fortune WRT timing and lack of blocking to get the two to come together properly. One could also argue that we have either had no PNA ridge or not enough of one to get an eastern trough that would steer the storm track properly with the old in place for us to score.

All of that is probably too much to explain on their weather page to the general public, but they still could have come with something better than the graphic and explanation posted.

I agree. The lack of blocking is letting the storms move to the north. A persistant ridge in that area would've brought constant warmth and very dry conditions.

[buckeyefan1]

That's a dumb post from NOAA. If the ridge was that constant, we wouldn't have cold either

Not true  

 

lol.. weekend shift.

It doesn't matter what shift posted it.....it speaks for itself   

 

Agree. Nor would we have had a few storms directly through where they have their "ridge" located on that map. Many of us have been colder than normal and many of us have been wetter than normal. We have had bad fortune WRT timing and lack of blocking to get the two to come together properly. One could also argue that we have either had no PNA ridge or not enough of one to get an eastern trough that would steer the storm track properly with the old in place for us to score.

All of that is probably too much to explain on their weather page to the general public, but they still could have come with something better than the graphic and explanation posted.

Just because the "ridge" gets displaced from time to time, doesn't mean it's not a persistent feature. 

 

I agree. The lack of blocking is letting the storms move to the north. A persistant ridge in that area would've brought constant warmth and very dry conditions.

Not true as seen during this fall/winter  

[J.C.]

ridge.jpg

This actually makes a lot of sense. We have been slightly above average temperatures (mainly December), and below average precipitation (mainly January, and February continues to be dry).

All of these people complaining about a cold and wet winter must have mysteriously had much colder and wetter than we have in South Carolina. Rainfall amounts 5 inches or less per winter month is anything but remarkable for this area. This winter has seemed nothing like an El Niño winter overall. Sure, there have been some moments.

Thanks for posting.

[mackerel_sky]

It's not there yet, but hr 324 on 18 z GFS is our storm! It's gonna be the one and don't worry about the cold air, it will be there as we get closer, the track now is money!

[NRVwxfan.]

Well, we better hope that high is gone by summer, or its gonna be a long, hot, and dry summer...

[NC_hailstorm]

That map looks just like a -QBO,solar max signal which I said back in September.Throw in low ozone too and that's a perfect match.

 

The temps have been close to average but the ridge has deflected any winter storm threat.

 

Carry on.

[mackerel_sky]

Well, we better hope that high is gone by summer, or its gonna be a long, hot, and dry summer...

I don't care if its hot, just as long as it's wet!

[Webberweather53]

This actually makes a lot of sense. We have been slightly above average temperatures (mainly December), and below average precipitation (mainly January, and February continues to be dry).

All of these people complaining about a cold and wet winter must have mysteriously had much colder and wetter than we have in South Carolina. Rainfall amounts 5 inches or less per winter month is anything but remarkable for this area. This winter has seemed nothing like an El Niño winter overall. Sure, there have been some moments.

Thanks for posting.

 

 

This has definitely been a classic El Nino winter in terms of temperature & precipitation, December & January are fairly typical looks for a traditional, east-based El Nino...

 

& it's actually been wetter than normal in your region & the precipitation distribution is about as classic as it gets for an El Nino, w/ wetter than normal conditions east of the Appalchians & thru the coastal southeast & w/ drier than normal conditions over the Tennessee & Ohio Valleys