Smoked Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Cold is usually the missing ingredient down here. I'll take my chances with consistent below average (in some cases well below) temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Just read his tweets, just pure stupidity...he essentially is saying everyone east of Colorado is going to see big snows rest of winter. LOL, he is just flailing trying to save his winter forecast. Or maybe he sees something he likes. Everyone's winter forecast has bust around here. But one thing is showing. Cold. We have had all these storms but no cold. Maybe he's right. He's missed badly wide right. But he never mentions us. We just need one snow to be above climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Cold is usually the missing ingredient down here. I'll take my chances with consistent below average (in some cases well below) temps Yep, cold is much more crucial than wet. Looking back at actual history, one doesn't at all need a wet month for a cold month to result in a month with multiple widespread SE winter events. Near normal is fine, Also, Feb. 1895 and Feb. 1968 are two great examples of dry months that were very wintry. All we need is WSW or SW 500 mb flow at just the right time with cold enough surface air. It obviously isn't ever easy to get this. SE climo tells us that. When it doesn't happen, it isn't that the SE is getting "screwed". It is perfectly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Cold is usually the missing ingredient down here. I'll take my chances with consistent below average (in some cases well below) tempsYep I agree. The gfs looks great to me. Let's get the cold in here and sustained even if it is a NW flow cold then we can look at potential events. One thing the gfs has been showing very consistently is a much more colder pattern taking shape right around valentine's day. It has been showing this for several days know and has not been backing up either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Or maybe he sees something he likes. Everyone's winter forecast has bust around here. But one thing is showing. Cold. We have had all these storms but no cold. Maybe he's right. He's missed badly wide right. But he never mentions us. We just need one snow to be above climo.Just read his latest post on WB and he readily admits he hopes the southern stream awakens while the cold is entrenched to save his forecast, with the notion that he rushed things. What pure garbage he spits out. Although, I guess his apologists will say atleast he admitted it. He also thinks the 17-20th potential will be a plains to the NE big winter storm, not SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Fwiw, the 12Z GEFS' 2/17-19 has a decent signal for cold precip. though not necessarily Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol! At the JB tweet! We are about to go into OT and score, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Just read his latest post on WB and he readily admits he hopes the southern stream awakens while the cold is entrenched to save his forecast, with the notion that he rushed things. What pure garbage he spits out. Although, I guess his apologists will say atleast he admitted it. He also thinks the 17-20th potential will be a plains to the NE big winter storm, not SE. lol wow you hate you some JB. Everyone busted this winter and not everyone constantly does Saturday Summaries available to the public and blog posts and is open to get ripped apart like he is...so while I agree he is trying to save his forecast (who isn't?) this month the models have looked the best they have all winter for the SE, so I wouldn't call it nonsense, garbage, etc. We all know he's the most optimistic when it comes to snow so you just have to understand that and take it with a grain, I'm not his #1 fan but I don't think he's wrong with his thinking for the last half of Feb. He's not the only one. We'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Fwiw, the 12Z GEFS' 2/17-19 has a decent signal for cold precip. though not necessarily Miller A. The GEFS mean is the snowiest yet, has 1-2" across n-GA most of SC and 2-3" across bulk of NC. This is the day 9-16 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 lol wow you hate you some JB. Everyone busted this winter and not everyone constantly does Saturday Summaries available to the public and blog posts and is open to get ripped apart like he is...so while I agree he is trying to save his forecast (who isn't?) this month the models have looked the best they have all winter for the SE, so I wouldn't call it nonsense, garbage, etc. We all know he's the most optimistic when it comes to snow so you just have to understand that and take it with a grain, I'm not his #1 fan but I don't think he's wrong with his thinking for the last half of Feb. He's not the only one. We'll wait and see. He's been calling for a wild winter since last year and the U.S. is at a decade low snow cover. It's like taking a 100 free throws and if he makes 1 he declares victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Fwiw, the 12Z GEFS' 2/17-19 has a decent signal for cold precip. though not necessarily Miller A.looks similar to the euro ensembles once that cutoff ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 lol wow you hate you some JB. Everyone busted this winter and not everyone constantly does Saturday Summaries available to the public and blog posts and is open to get ripped apart like he is...so while I agree he is trying to save his forecast (who isn't?) this month the models have looked the best they have all winter for the SE, so I wouldn't call it nonsense, garbage, etc. We all know he's the most optimistic when it comes to snow so you just have to understand that and take it with a grain, I'm not his #1 fan but I don't think he's wrong with his thinking for the last half of Feb. He's not the only one. We'll wait and see.Great post Jon. who wouldn't want save face. Who has not busted this winter. The great Judah Cohen has even busted mighty. I do think this month is the best time for the SE to see some for of winter weather outside the mountains. The gfs continues to look optimistic to me when looking at the whole picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 He's been calling for a wild winter since last year and the U.S. is at a decade low snow cover. It's like taking a 100 free throws and if he makes 1 he declares victory.I thought most above i-70 are at or above average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 He's been calling for a wild winter since last year and the U.S. is at a decade low snow cover. It's like taking a 100 free throws and if he makes 1 he declares victory.well pack good thing he is calling for a couple mild winters in the future. Hope he busts on them also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 well pack good thing he is calling for a couple mild winters in the future. Hope he busts on them also. It does seem that the opposite winter forecast usually prevails. And not just from JB. What was the prevailing thought for last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It does seem that the opposite winter forecast usually prevails. And not just from JB. What was the prevailing thought for last winter?cold and snowy lol. Pretty much like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 JB's analysis of what the 6z GEFS is showing is correct. If it turns out like that, he'll be spot on. But it won't, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Webber and JB mention the seasonal mode of the jet stream. I'm not sure why the drivers of the pattern are suddenly going to change to a more favorable state for the rest of the winter. So assuming the maintain the status quo, if there is validity to the jet wavelengths changing, that could be the variable that allows the US, and particularly the SE, to benefit as we head into the 4th quarter. I like the pattern the LR GFS is showing as good as I have liked any of the LR guidance this year. The problem is getting it to actually verify. Maybe the jet mode variable will be the catalyst for this time being different. I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Webber? You looking at his Twitter page or something? I never get on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I thought most above i-70 are at or above average? 40 north is above average, maybe just north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Webber? You looking at his Twitter page or something? I never get on Twitter. No, sorry. He said that earlier this winter about Feb. when it looked like Jan. was going down the tubes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 No, sorry. He said that earlier this winter about Feb. when it looked like Jan. was going down the tubes. Oh. Well, in any case January did go down the tubes and it appears the first half of Fab Feb will, as well. Hopefully, the D10 Euro fantasy storm is on target by some miracle and we can have a Fab late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The correlation of cold to wintry precip. at ATL appears like it may be highest in Feb. (of DJF). Out of 25 Feb's colder than 42 F or about 4-5+ colder than norm (we'll have a shot at this), a whopping 20 of the 25 had measurable SN/IP (other 5 had a T) and one other had a major ZR. Three of the 25 had major ZR's. Only one Feb. major ZR was in a noncold Feb. (2014). In contrast, only just over 20% of those 42+ F had measurable SN/IP vs. the 80% for the cold ones! During the 25 coldest ones, there were 15 major winter storms incl. ZR: three had two majors; nine had one major...so, an impressive 12 of 25 had 1-2 majors. Compare this near 50% rate to the other 111 Feb's. which had a mere 3 with a major...3%!! They were in 1894 (Feb near normal), 1952 (a weak Nino with Feb. a bit warmer than normal) and 2014 (Feb. near normal). So out of 18 Feb. ATL majors, 15 were within the 25 coldest of 136 Feb's! So, the warmest Feb. with a major was 1952 at 48.5. So, there were no majors during the 40 Feb's warmer than 48.5. Only 3 of 34 (9%) warmer than 48.5 with known exact SN/IP had measurable SN/IP compared to 80% for those colder than 42! That is an amazingly strong correlation! The colder the better for major potential. When Feb. was colder than 40, a whopping 7 of 12 had 1+ major winter storms with a total of 9! That's in the stratosphere vs. Feb. climo, folks! For the Feb.'s that were 40-41.9 (where we may be headed if the cold models are right), 5 of 13 had 1+ majors (still an impressive 38%, way above climo...remember that only 3% that were 42+ F had a major) for a total of 6 majors. Moral of the story: with this Feb. looking cold, there is reason for lots of hope at least. If we were not looking cold, I'd be very pessimistic. The colder the better for wintry precip. chances. Let's hope the cold models are correct! Keep in mind that 13 of the 24 coldest Feb's were during El Nino vs only ~8 if were proportional to overall climo. So, with our weak Nino, we have that on our side for cold chances. **Edited for one correction. There were 12 sub 40 F Feb.'s rather than 11. So, 7 of 12 had 1+ majors rather than 7 of 11. Regardless, the % is still way, way above the overall Feb. climo %. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 18z GFS is cold to brutally cold from D5 on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 18z GFS is cold to brutally cold from D5 on out. 18z also has the day 9/10 energy that the euro had. Does not not do much with it but it's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 18z GFS is cold to brutally cold from D5 on out.Yeah that is crazy cold from the 18z gfs. I doubt it happens but that would be pipe busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah that is crazy cold from the 18z gfs. I doubt it happens but that would be pipe busting. I'm going all in on UGAZ if that gets within 2 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 18z also has the day 9/10 energy that the euro had. Does not not do much with it but it's there Yeah, the flow looks pretty dry to me, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yep, cold is much more crucial than wet. Looking back at actual history, one doesn't at all need a wet month for a cold month to result in a month with multiple widespread SE winter events. Near normal is fine, Also, Feb. 1895 and Feb. 1968 are two great examples of dry months that were very wintry. All we need is WSW or SW 500 mb flow at just the right time with cold enough surface air. It obviously isn't ever easy to get this. SE climo tells us that. When it doesn't happen, it isn't that the SE is getting "screwed". It is perfectly normal. Nice stats, especially a couple of your more recent posts. Definitely promising, though as others have alluded to it would be nice to shift that trough a bit further south and west - though its hard to ask for more considering that most other patterns would be less favorable in regards to winter storms. Yep I agree. The gfs looks great to me. Let's get the cold in here and sustained even if it is a NW flow cold then we can look at potential events. One thing the gfs has been showing very consistently is a much more colder pattern taking shape right around valentine's day. It has been showing this for several days know and has not been backing up either. Yep. I like the pattern too. Though things tend to modify at least a bit past the 5-7 day period for extreme solutions. I really like how in the mid to long range the Euro and GFS have hinted at cold air pooling to our West and North which would be a great set up for a larger event should a piece of short wave energy round the base of the trough at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Didnt our last storm that gave CHS 20" of fantasy snow 8 days out or so, only show up on the GFS ? All these dud threats get confusing!? I think I remember people saying the wished the Euro would come on board, then it just turned into a dry cold front?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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