packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Both the GEFS and EPS show it more active day after day 10...the post Valentines Day massacre...thats what we will title of our next storm thread. Yes, I am in full hype mode, we got 3 weeks left of Fab Feb and after the first few days of March RDU's snow climo comes to a screeching halt. Ride it out strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Today's telecon report is brought to you by Chrysler Automotive, and the brand new 1974 Chrysler Cordoba with rich Corinthian leather: GS-007-01.jpg ao_sprd2.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg 814temp_new.jpg 814prcp_new.jpg Great stuff CR, We fixing to have the best weather we could possible have, VERY COLD & DRY. #unrealwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Basically (if your looking for wintery precip) everything is canceled out because of the last thing you show --- a dry forecast. Kind of like when I was in 3rd grade and the teacher put a long math problem like 23 + 45 - 18 x 3 ............... x 0 We worked the problem to the last calculation to find that the x 0 canceled out everything before it. Very frustrating that we're looking to really lock into a colder pattern for a while, and at the same exact time, everything dries up. As wet as it's been this year, soon as it gets cold....it dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We have to either hope for something on the front or the back of this big cold stretch. Something has to give but the overall pattern just doesn't look great outside of a clipper which never do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I looked back at the last 60 years or so of all the winters below 3" of seasonal snowfall, for RDU, and not one of them had Jan-Feb below average for temps. We are almost certain to have this Jan-Feb average below normal, possibly -3F or lower. There's just no way we are going to finish below 3" for snow....or could we...it just doesn't happen. Edit: We will finish DJF below normal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Someone in the SE will get a good snow before spring breaks, probably at the end of the cold & dry spell.... I predict we end winter with a big SE snow storm, Then warmer weather sets in a couple days after it... That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it!!! #endwithabang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I looked back at the last 60 years or so of all the winters below 3" of seasonal snowfall, for RDU, and not one of them had Jan-Feb below average for temps. We are almost certain to have this Jan-Feb average below normal, possibly -3F or lower. There's just no way we are going to finish below 3" for snow....or could we...it just doesn't happen. Edit: We will finish DJF below normal too. Probably so with the way our luck has been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I looked back at the last 60 years or so of all the winters below 3" of seasonal snowfall, for RDU, and not one of them had Jan-Feb below average for temps. We are almost certain to have this Jan-Feb average below normal, possibly -3F or lower. There's just no way we are going to finish below 3" for snow....or could we...it just doesn't happen. Edit: We will finish DJF below normal too. It simply means it has hasn't happened in the short time of 60 years. It most certainly will, and this could definitely be the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Probably so with the way our luck has been this winter. It simply means it has hasn't happened in the short time of 60 years. It most certainly will, and this could definitely be the year. Won't you get some satisfaction with doing something that hasn't been done, I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Basically (if your looking for wintery precip) everything is canceled out because of the last thing you show --- a dry forecast. Kind of like when I was in 3rd grade and the teacher put a long math problem like 23 + 45 - 18 x 3 ............... x 0 We worked the problem to the last calculation to find that the x 0 canceled out everything before it. Lol that's funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Today's telecon report is brought to you by Chrysler Automotive, and the brand new 1974 Chrysler Cordoba with rich Corinthian leather: GS-007-01.jpg ao_sprd2.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg 814temp_new.jpg 814prcp_new.jpg Fantastic. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Fantastic. Well done. Thanks! Hopefully, Pack is right, and the GEFS and ENS is right about getting some precipitation in here so that it isn't bone dry and Brick goes crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Cold and dry? Dry maybe. Accuweather long range has me in the mid to upper 50's through the rest of Feb. They might be looking at different models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'm trying to be a bit lenient due to nothing really going on, but lets try and keep things here about the pattern and move the banter into the proper thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Cold and dry? Dry maybe. Accuweather long range has me in the mid to upper 50's through the rest of Feb. They might be looking at different models? AccuWeather LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks! Hopefully, Pack is right, and the GEFS and ENS is right about getting some precipitation in here so that it isn't bone dry and Brick goes crazy. Went back a 100 years and I found 3 winters that were under 3" with below avg Jan-Feb temps. All three winters did have measurable snow, roughly avg 1.50". Interestingly enough 1941 and 1942 were both +ENSO/+PDO, . So in 100 years we have never had Jan-Feb with below avg temps and not had measurable snow, only 3 times has it been under 3". So 1-3" looks like a given sometime in the next few weeks... A theme of the crappy winters below is the much colder NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So 1-3" looks like a given sometime in the next few weeks... Until then, we'll continue to admire our tracemen as the shutout* continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Until then, we'll continue to admire our tracemen as the shutout* continues. LOL...and we get to watch BOS get buried, again and again and again the rest of this winter. I will get some enjoyment out of watching them get event after event this winter. This will be there 3rd well above avg winter in a row, 4 out of the past 5,....but you have to pay the piper eventually. Over the past 8 years they are running 130% of climo, including this winter, and they are going to add onto it, a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Maybe this winter will be like shooting the moon in hearts. Only if we get shut out to the end we don't get all of the points. The shame of warm ups like this weekend is that they release the moisture in the ground making yard work or play very unenjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Euro is actually kind of close to a little something for some areas of NC around D4-5, BTW... Anyways, in more realistic news, the CFS is looking colder and colder for March. Marvelous March, here we come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Euro is actually kind of close to a little something for some areas of NC around D4-5, BTW... Anyways, in more realistic news, the CFS is looking colder and colder for March. Marvelous March, here we come... I think our best bet is right at the end of the cold snap. You can see on the Euro and GFS when it's trying to break it down day 10 moisture is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I've strayed away from the forums and model watching in general over the past couple days, if for no other reason a mental break for what has been a disappointing winter (precip-wise). But...my attention was focused today on the cold that the GFS is advertising for Day 7-10...the kind of cold that could put East Tennessee, SoApps, Western North Carolina at or below freezing for a 3-4 day period. I see major western ridge amplification on the GFS, why should I buy that given how it has shown that numerous times in the last 6 weeks only for it to get beaten down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Won't you get some satisfaction with doing something that hasn't been done, I will. Pack, I've been meaning to ask you, when you look at RDU years with snow less than an inch (or in the most recent case, 3"), are you looking at things like ice events or sleet events too? You usually only mention snow. Reason I mention it is because, even if we get less than an inch of snow, if we had a few sleet or zr events, it would still seem like a winter. If this winter goes snowless, it will fall into the category of your RDU less than an inch winters. But I wonder how many of those winters featured not just no snow but also no wintry weather whatsoever, like this one is shaping up to do? Cause right now, this has to be near the top of the list in the "no winter weather at all" category. Is what I'm saying making sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Cold and dry? Dry maybe. Accuweather long range has me in the mid to upper 50's through the rest of Feb. They might be looking at different models? Accuweather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Pack, I've been meaning to ask you, when you look at RDU years with snow less than an inch (or in the most recent case, 3"), are you looking at things like ice events or sleet events too? You usually only mention snow. Reason I mention it is because, even if we get less than an inch of snow, if we had a few sleet or zr events, it would still seem like a winter. If this winter goes snowless, it will fall into the category of your RDU less than an inch winters. But I wonder how many of those winters featured not just no snow but also no wintry weather whatsoever, like this one is shaping up to do? Cause right now, this has to be near the top of the list in the "no winter weather at all" category. Is what I'm saying making sense?The numbers I have is just snow. This rivals a 90's winter with the lack of any wintery precip, there is no doubting this is the worst winter I can remember. If this cold comes to fruition for Feb and we finish Jan/Feb solidly below avg for temps and don't get measurable snow then it would be at the top of worst winters. RDU saw a few flakes in Dec but that's been it. I guess we had a trace of freezing drizzle in Jan. Edit: one reason I do hope we get nothing the rest of the way, just suck it up and hope we are bottoming. It can't get worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Pack, I think sleet is usually included in the "snow" totals, though ZR isn't. For example, GSO recorded 15.4" of "snow" last year, but a significant amount of that (3-4"+) was in the form of sleet/ice pellets/pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Pack, I've been meaning to ask you, when you look at RDU years with snow less than an inch (or in the most recent case, 3"), are you looking at things like ice events or sleet events too? You usually only mention snow. Reason I mention it is because, even if we get less than an inch of snow, if we had a few sleet or zr events, it would still seem like a winter. If this winter goes snowless, it will fall into the category of your RDU less than an inch winters. But I wonder how many of those winters featured not just no snow but also no wintry weather whatsoever, like this one is shaping up to do? Cause right now, this has to be near the top of the list in the "no winter weather at all" category. Is what I'm saying making sense? I've been thinking the same thing. ZR can easily be overlooked since it isn't shown as SN. ZR is every bit as wintry as SN to most. When I mention past ATL winters, sig. ZR is always included. The problem is getting the ZR data. For ATL major ZR, it took many days of studying individual days of temp's/precip on the internet followed by going to the library to look at old newspapers. So, it is admittedly not an easy task. Regarding IP: yes, it is included in SN totals. However, 1" of IP is far more sig than 1" of SN since the water content is way higher. For ATL, I figured out the mainly IP storms both based on memory since 1979 as well as checking newspapers pre-1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Feb. of 1968 is coming up repeatedly in NWS analogs now. I would welcome another Feb. 1968! That is a great example of a very cold but dry month that had several wintry precip events over most of the SE, some sig. Feb. of 1895 was also a great wintry month that was dry by the way. We can deal with dry. Basically, just about every precip. event after the first few days of the month of Feb. 1968 was wintry in some areas due to a very far south storm track. ATL had three different accum. SN's, including a mutliincher 2/29! SAV had a major SN (tied for the largest since the mid 1800's...3.6") on 2/8 along with two other traces! Having three different SN's in one month is practically unheard of there. CHS had 1.3" on 2/22 along with three other days of traces and ZR on 2/24! MCN got 1" on 2/21, 1.9" on 2/23-4, and another 5 days of T's!! Much of AL. NC, and TN also got above avg wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 JB continuing his statements that South is still gonna see a brutal finish to winter and above normal snowfall for many!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 JB continuing his statements that South is still gonna see a brutal finish to winter and above normal snowfall for many!! Just read his tweets, just pure stupidity...he essentially is saying everyone east of Colorado is going to see big snows rest of winter. LOL, he is just flailing trying to save his winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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