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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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It makes me feel better about our (still outdoor however atm) chances for something in the 2nd week of the month when I see a fairly robust Alberta Clipper rotate around the base of this strong low pressure gyre over eastern Canada. Hopefully it will lay down some snow for the I-80/I-70 corridors from the Great Lakes & points eastward (would like to see the southern edge of the snowpack  drive down to at least Chicago, Fort Wayne, Columbus, Pittsburgh corridor (as I explained in a post several weeks ago). It's not a cure all panacea, but it definitely would help our chances for CAD in the long term, that's if of course a long list of other parameters fall into line, aside from the synoptic pattern & equatorial forcing which already look relatively favorable in this time period..

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Same here. I don't know if it's just a misperception on my part or what  but it just seems that there has been a lot more variability/flip flopping from one run to the next with little to no agreement between any of the models beyond day 4 or 5 this year...much more so than usual. It's been so bad that I just shake my head every time I look at them. Other than very general trends, i just can't bring myself to waste much time worrying about them because it seems to me that once you have wasted your time describing it or figuring it out, then next run looks completely different.

 

It's depressing really because what makes winter fun is tracking storms or potential storms over long periods.

 

Yep. I totally agree. The fun factor is definitely missing so far this year.

 

We are all going to be singing a different tune at some point when the models hit us with a surprise 3 days away out of no where.

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 Biggest news on the 0Z GFS may actually be the immediate return of a very cold pattern in the 11-15 with virtually none of that break that has been advertised by the Euro suite.

 

 

The European suite is just struggling w/ all of the energy that keeps spitting out of the southwestern US (hence the erroneous forecasts to over-amplify the SE US ridge, which flies in the face of the strong +PDO) and the Rex Block over the North Pacific is only going to add insult to injury

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That is a big boy cold front, just as impressive or more than the one last January.

Interesting to note,  just as has been the case quite a few times this winter...the cold is more impressive at 925mb over many areas (south of tn/nc) than at 850mb.

 

gfsUS_925_temp_153.gif

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Interesting to note,  just as has been the case quite a few times this winter...the cold is more impressive at 925mb over many areas (south of tn/nc) than at 850mb.

 

gfsUS_925_temp_153.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Last year's Arctic attack featured super cold 925mb temps...

Speaking of arctic attack...at some point a specific thread should be made for what's coming up. I would like to have the honors but would like to wait until after the 12z runs Friday afternoon...any objections to that?

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