tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I was reading LC's thoughts on FB and he's being optimistic (to say the least) for the period Around Valentines Day and after, even mentioning the words triple phaser. I am not in agreement with him, but do see ways we could score something other than a major system with the PNA popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Boring... 2 members(including me) and 3 quests currently viewing this thread. The current and medium range definitely hold no hope for us. Just looking at the 12z GFS it would be day 8 until we even get into a pattern that could produce. That's what this forum needs: A quest! Three would be even better. We could go in search of the Holy Grail of snow, though that appears to be a Quixotic quest in the SE this year. We could go in search of the One Ring that binds all weather together. We could go in search of the Golden Fleece of models, that always gets it right 10 days out. Just a few ideas to get us started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Many have probably given up, but the new euro weeklies keep a +PNA all month into March with a -EPO...very tall ridges on this run throughout, lots of cold east. Fab Feb incoming or just dry cold? Hey Jon, !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for staying in the game! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I was reading LC's thoughts on FB and he's being optimistic (to say the least) for the period Around Valentines Day and after, even mentioning the words triple phaser. I am not in agreement with him, but do see ways we could score something other than a major system with the PNA popping. Agreed! It looks cold and dry, but with the ridge that tall and placement is just right , it would only take a small piece of energy coming up and over the ridge, diving down the Rockies, and get a little surprise in the gulf, or have a wave form along one of the many arctic fronts that look to be coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hey Jon, !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for staying in the game! Phil CPC says bitterly cold and bone dry for all of us...can't see a way out of this without a major pattern shift which means enduring a torch first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I was reading LC's thoughts on FB and he's being optimistic (to say the least) for the period Around Valentines Day and after, even mentioning the words triple phaser. I am not in agreement with him, but do see ways we could score something other than a major system with the PNA popping. The EPS day 10+ has that 93 look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I have been watching the long range through the end of the month, and the pattern returns to a cooler than average state in approximately 5-7 days. With the positive PNA and the weak negative NAO, I believe the pattern will turn favorable for some sort of wintry weather the second half of February. Like others have said, I am shocked at how boring and lackluster this winter has been. Only a few systems have produced, even in the northern part of the country. I noticed around 174-180 hours out, a system cuts off in Mexico on the GFS and EURO. This could be a chance for a system to eject and hopefully track up the eastern seaboard, but you never really know how these systems eject. We have had the cold air, but the moisture has been lacking. Wish there was something more concrete to latch onto in the long term; however, we appear to be just in a wait and see if we can get a system with the cold air around late next week into the third week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just for the record JB this evening speaking of plains on east---- Once that southern jet breaks through there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth there and to be clear, I still think Dallas and Atlanta will wind up with above normal snowfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just for the record JB this evening speaking of plains on east---- Once that southern jet breaks through there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth there and to be clear, I still think Dallas and Atlanta will wind up with above normal snowfall this year. The bolded is bold, on his behalf!He probly gained a new subscriber though, wakeforestdud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The EPS day 10+ has that 93 look to it.lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The EPS day 10+ has that 93 look to it.Did that look come after a snowless winter, then I'm all in! Looks cold and dry to me! I'd bet , somehow , someway, if we get any precip the next 10-15 days, it will be rain during a frontal passage , between Arctic blasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The EPS day 10+ has that 93 look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 CPC says bitterly cold and bone dry for all of us...can't see a way out of this without a major pattern shift which means enduring a torch firstTorch this weekend ! Mid-upper 60s , in my back yard! Will be atleast 75+ in Carrollton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 lets cash out now with that. You can come hangout and enjoy a mtn snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Torch this weekend ! Mid-upper 60s , in my back yard! Will be atleast 75+ in Carrollton! mid 50's and sun! Gonna go for a run on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 mid 50's and sun! Gonna go for a run on Sunday. I haven't gone for a run since October. Was going 3 miles 4x/week. I'll prolly start back in April. Always sucks to start. If we get a 93, clear out the spare bedroom and get some Papa John's ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I haven't gone for a run since October. Was going 3 miles 4x/week. I'll prolly start back in April. Always sucks to start. If we get a 93, clear out the spare bedroom and get some Papa John's ready! I haven't gone for a run since October ...Of 1993, lol! Forced to during PE, 15 min mile, word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I haven't gone for a run since October. Was going 3 miles 4x/week. I'll prolly start back in April. Always sucks to start. If we get a 93, clear out the spare bedroom and get some Papa John's ready! I don't run unless she does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Despite all of the complaining and though many may not reach climo (since I don't have a crystal ball and we went through Dec/Jan with little to nothing), we're still in a position in the bulk of the SE to hit or even exceed average annual wintry precip. as it only takes one major storm to do so in many cases. The SE doesn't typically get a parade of winter storms. We're not in the mid-Atlantic. I know ATL's above average wintry precip. winters often result from just one significant to major storm. Even RDU's big winters are often highlighted by just one big storm. Just because many have yet to receive any wintry precip. does not at all mean that the Feb/Mar climo chances of getting a winter storm are diminished. Early winter storm activity has little correlation to late winter winter storm frequency in the SE. Furthermore, our weak Nino climo is more favorable than average for something to occur in Feb or Mar. With the modeled strong cold for the Midwest/NE and to a less extent in the SE (the SE is near the bottom of the Arctic airmasses, which is the most favorable setup), there's no reason at all to be so negative on our chances of getting a nice storm at some point imo. Furthermore, if we don't get one, we'll survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The bolded is bold, on his behalf! He probly gained a new subscriber though, wakeforestdud! lol, He thinks a strong and late finish to winter! We'll see soon enough!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Modoki FTW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Water West of Greenland looks like it has warmed. It has been cold all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I live in misfit land. I am not MA DC north area to NE and I am not Raleigh southward. I live 15 minutes due east of I95 and I85 intersect in Prince George Va , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Tonight's Euro jackpots NE NC/SE VA with a couple inches of snow in nine days. All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 See a couple of post with 93 being tossed around. That winter I was in Cullowhee. It was a dead horse winter until second half of February. Seems like we got a 4 or 5 inch snow if memory serves me correct. Then the superstorm hit 1st weekend in March. Want rehash all the glorious details, but it was very cold for a few days afterwards. In fact the Tuckasegee river was froze. Over almost completely and seems like we hit 0 the night after the storm had exited. Point is without looking up, winter was a dud until late Feb event and March superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 6z GFS was just straight up horrific! Unless you enjoy high heating bills an shocks every time you touch metal! Straight up Brick special , through day 15! Not one sprinkle or flurry in sight and on day 15 , it's rain up into Ohio! #BESTWINTEREVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Today's telecon report is brought to you by Chrysler Automotive, and the brand new 1974 Chrysler Cordoba with rich Corinthian leather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah CR, you see that above average precip in south Texas as all of our storms get squashed into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah CR, you see that above average precip in south Texas as all of our storms get squashed into Mexico. El Paso is probably going to get record snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yep, Mother Nature is cruel and unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Today's telecon report is brought to you by Chrysler Automotive, and the brand new 1974 Chrysler Cordoba with rich Corinthian leather: GS-007-01.jpg ao_sprd2.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg 814temp_new.jpg 814prcp_new.jpg Basically (if your looking for wintery precip) everything is canceled out because of the last thing you show --- a dry forecast. Kind of like when I was in 3rd grade and the teacher put a long math problem like 23 + 45 - 18 x 3 ............... x 0 We worked the problem to the last calculation to find that the x 0 canceled out everything before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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