franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If u watched his video yesterday he showed winter picking up down further south starting next week and getting more active the further into feb. No he didn't say in our back yard but never does. Look at his winter forecastI like jb but his snowfall forecast is not going to pan out for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 When is that super typhoon going to change our pattern? I read yesterday that was going to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Here are the dates for which I've found a 3.5" plus official ATL snow and/or 1.5”+ sleet event since 3/1876 (39 of them or one every 3.5 years): DEC: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29 JAN: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 23, 26, 28, 29-30 FEB: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 12-13, 14-15, 15, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26 MAR: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24 Feb. 10th is the median. So, we're still nearly a week away from the median of ATL major SN/IP. I bolded the most concentrated 9 day period of the winter for major SN/IP in ATL (ZR's excluded): 2/10-18, which had a whopping 10 major SN/IP at ATL or one every 14 winters. Keep in mind that this period is progged to be a very cold period (as suggested by the models) for the Midwest and NE due to several strong Arctic highs traversing the Midwest. What's missing is moist WSW 500 mb flow while each high passes us to the north. The trough axis is too far east. If that doesn't change, there would almost certainly be little or no wintry precip. in ATL and vicinity. Let's see if that changes. Strangely enough, ATL had none during the 10 days 1/31-2/9 in nearly 140 years! I have no explanation. Again, this excludes ZR's. There were several major ZR's in early Feb. Note that 1894-5 had two major SN's in ATL and both were in mid Feb. MAR of 1960 has 3 major winter storms after DJF had virtually no wintry precip. 1978-9 had two major winter storms and both were in Feb. after today's date. So, though none may end up occurring obviously, it isn't over til it's over even though no specific threat can be identified for ATL at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Here is the latest telecom report, brought to you by Oscar Mayer sliced bologna: Oscar Mayer has a way with B-O-L-O-G-N-A. And a sad bonus: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Here is the latest telecom report, brought to you by Oscar Mayer sliced bologna: Oscar Mayer has a way with B-O-L-O-G-N-A. ao_sprd2.jpg ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.jpg And a sad bonus: promo247118204_0_01.jpg It's not a bad look CR. The PNA looks to go solidly positive(great). The NAO looks to average neutral-ish (that as good as we've seen this year), and the AO looks to be the wild card (have no idea what it will do). The middle to last part of February is probably our real last chance for a widespread SE winter storm. These indices at least keep that chance alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Phase 8 is good for SE snow? Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's not a bad look CR. The PNA looks to go solidly positive(great). The NAO looks to average neutral-ish (that as good as we've seen this year), and the AO looks to be the wild card (have no idea what it will do). The middle to last part of February is probably our real last chance for a widespread SE winter storm. These indices at least keep that chance alive. yeah that is the best look we have seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 JB with the shoutout to us: @BigJoeBastardi: @BigJoeBastardi SE.. southern branch will break through ala JMA week 3/4 lead to winter weather pushing into se after cold hits and holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 JB with the shoutout to us: @BigJoeBastardi: @BigJoeBastardi SE.. southern branch will break through ala JMA week 3/4 lead to winter weather pushing into se after cold hits and holds 8 agree with his thought just looking at the telleconnections. Ironically we enter into a favorable period at the very end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You guys be careful looking at the long lead stuff and trusting it. We've seen the AO and NAO go negative, along with arctic highs, STJs, and southern snowstorms countless times at long leads this winter. Why is this time going to be different? It might be, but why is it more likely now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You guys be careful looking at the long lead stuff and trusting it. We've seen the AO and NAO go negative, along with arctic highs, STJs, and southern snowstorms countless times at long leads this winter. Why is this time going to be different? It might be, but why is it more likely now? Agreed. I have little faith in any modification of the +NAO and I bet the PNA ridge is much less amplified than progged. It's happened all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You guys be careful looking at the long lead stuff and trusting it. We've seen the AO and NAO go negative, along with arctic highs, STJs, and southern snowstorms countless times at long leads this winter. Why is this time going to be different? It might be, but why is it more likely now?the ao is actually negative know so that has changed. The nao looks meh but the pna looks to be a sure thing because it pretty much has been positive all winter and also of course things look better heading out of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the ao is actually negative know so that has changed. The nao looks meh but the pna looks to be a sure thing because it pretty much has been positive all winter and also of course things look better heading out of winter! We'll see...the AO looks to go positive soon. The PNA has been positive, but it has not been helpful to us in that it has been either in the wrong location or too flat and broad to help us. Looking at its configuration on the operational models, it looks to remain that way for a good while. It's better than nothing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We'll see...the AO looks to go positive soon. The PNA has been positive, but it has not been helpful to us in that it has been either in the wrong location or too flat and broad to help us. Looking at its configuration on the operational models, it looks to remain that way for a good while. It's better than nothing, though.well CR we will see. I might be grasping at straws here. Time is running out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I suppose the AO is registering slightly negative due to the above normal heights over Iceland and the Bering Strait, but there are a lot of negative anomalies over the Pole and northern Canada. The kind of -AO we would want to see has above normal heights across Alaska, Northern Canada, and Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 well CR we will see. I might be grasping at straws here. Time is running out though. Agreed, **we're currently losing the game but we have the ball, there's little bit if time left, and we got some good /ok players on the field. We've had a few interceptions and fumbles but this is a new drive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Agreed, **we're currently losing the game but we have the ball, there's little bit if time left, and we got some good /ok players on the field. We've had a few interceptions and fumbles but this is a new drive.... Why do I see us throwing a pass on the one yard line with time running out. That never seems to end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Why do I see us throwing a pass on the one yard line with time running out. That never seems to end well.From now on , our pattern this winter will be known as SHO: SeaHawksOscillation!Looks ok, has some potential, then screws the pooch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Why do I see us throwing a pass on the one yard line with time running out. That never seems to end well. From now on , our pattern this winter will be known as SHO: SeaHawksOscillation! Looks ok, has some potential, then screws the pooch LOL.... To both of you, it is probably the most likely outcome. But (honestly) we are near the end of our season and if we're going to root for a particular pattern to present itself this is the one that could save us. Many outside the mountains will start losing snow chances/probabilities at this end of this month. Our whole winter (in since of the greater SE) may hinge on the last two weeks of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 LOL.... To both of you, it is probably the most likely outcome. But (honestly) we are near the end of our season and if we're going to root for a particular pattern to present itself this is the one that could save us. Many outside the mountains will start losing snow chances/probabilities at this end of this month. Our whole winter (in since of the greater SE) may hinge on the last two weeks of February. Yep. Our normal high temp has already risen three degrees from the yearly minimum. Once we get into March, any snow that falls doesn't hang around very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yep. Our normal high temp has already risen three degrees from the yearly minimum. Once we get into March, any snow that falls doesn't hang around very long.Yeah, but those March ice storms suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yeah, but those March ice storms suck! Totally agree with that. BTW Today marks end of solar winter. Until April, day length across the Northern Hemisphere will grow at quickest rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Totally agree with that. BTW Today marks end of solar winter. Until April, day length across the Northern Hemisphere will grow at quickest rate. So basically Solar Winter is roughly November 5-February 5 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 So basically Solar Winter is roughly November 5-February 5 ? It's the 3 month period with the least amount of daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Boring... 2 members(including me) and 3 quests currently viewing this thread. The current and medium range definitely hold no hope for us. Just looking at the 12z GFS it would be day 8 until we even get into a pattern that could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Boring... 2 members(including me) and 3 quests currently viewing this thread. The current and medium range definitely hold no hope for us. Just looking at the 12z GFS it would be day 8 until we even get into a pattern that could produce. This has been the most boring winter I can remember so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Many have probably given up, but the new euro weeklies keep a +PNA all month into March with a -EPO...very tall ridges on this run throughout, lots of cold east. Fab Feb incoming or just dry cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Many have probably given up, but the new euro weeklies keep a +PNA all month into March with a -EPO...very tall ridges on this run throughout, lots of cold east. Fab Feb incoming or just dry cold? Fab Feb coming, delayed not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Modoki FTW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Many have probably given up, but the new euro weeklies keep a +PNA all month into March with a -EPO...very tall ridges on this run throughout, lots of cold east. Fab Feb incoming or just dry cold? Jon I like the upcoming pattern. The weeklies have been showing this for a couple of weeks coming together for the East. Whether we get anything or not is to be debatable but it looks like we may have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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