Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That's funny! I don't know why the CFS has been bashed so much, it's not perfect, but when you blend the last 3-4 days of the months model run for the next month it's been fairly good. It's pretty simple actually, it's not too terribly difficult to have a correct forecast when you are virtually on top of the beginning of the verification period. At that point, you're nowcasting, and this doesn't carry nearly the same rigor as attempting to forecast by month w/ a respectable lead time, which is the intention of climate models like the CFSv2 in the first place, thus it's almost defeating its purpose in this case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Holy crap that looks awful, or great if your hoping for warmth. The CFS folding is hilarious, although I see it's showing a wet SE . Don't fret, Webber and Burger say Feb's can't miss in the SE with +ENSO/+PDO. I don't know why you keep being passive aggressive and trying to pull me into this. Please find a post where I said Feb. would be awesome. If anything on these storm threats I'm tempering expectations. From Jan on I've said we have to bet the streak and the hot hand has been to go warm just before a storm. Am I going to look for the silver lining? Yes. Am I going to be optimistic? Yes. I'm not a meteorologist, this isn't my job so I don't have to be 100% scientific. I can suspend my disbelief for moments and pull for a surprise. Like I said, you do this every year and that's your thing. Cool but stop trying to attach my name to something I never said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's pretty simple actually, it's not too terribly difficult to have a correct forecast when you are virtually on top of the beginning of the verification period. At that point, you're nowcasting, and this doesn't carry nearly the same rigor as attempting to forecast by month w/ a respectable lead time, which is the intention of climate models like the CFSv2 in the first place, thus it's almost defeating its purpose in this case... That being said, if it turns out right for what it's showing for Feb, it's not the best solution for us, regardless of how it got there. I am hopeful that things will align for a good winter storm. All we need is a small period where the pattern sets up for it, and we'll be happy. I don't think we go all of Feb and early March and get shut out (shut out as in no appreciable snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The cfs is terrible. it even fails at a monthly forecast ten days into the month. Might as well ask brick Tamland what the weather will be in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That being said, if it turns out right for what it's showing for Feb, it's not the best solution for us, regardless of how it got there. I am hopeful that things will align for a good winter storm. All we need is a small period where the pattern sets up for it, and we'll be happy. I don't think we go all of Feb and early March and get shut out (shut out as in no appreciable snow). Perhaps it's just coincidence or a reflection of the ISO, but I've noticed over the last few months, (this one included) how the temperature distribution early on appears to closely resemble the weak El Nino-warm Neutral composites, but as the month wore on, we see a significant move to a more traditional looking distribution. February is likely going to be a colder modification (anomaly wise) to December, and it's interesting to note how virtually every composite converges onto the more typical +PDO/ENSO look w/ colder southeast & warmer further north & west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's worth mentioning this latest MJO pulse has led to a complete reconfiguration of the tropical upper level circulation and the upper level convergence that's been hampering the ongoing +ENSO event for the last several weeks has since vanished as result and of course the Equatorial Waves & their associated have become rather confused as a wavenumber 2 MJO look takes over the global tropics. Once again, as we observed back in September/October & last spring, we find ourselves w/ this +ENSO event trying to intensify in the transition period between the peaks of the Australian/Asian monsoons... I don't think this is just mere happenstance. Now this is more like an El Nino... Nice WWB surge too, (anomalous 850hpa westerly winds are yellow, orange, & red, fairly easy to see how much stronger the easterly progression was this time around, a high amplitude MJO pulse (actually was in record territory for phase 5-6 in January) w/ less interference from the eastern hemisphere and climatologically, a bit more equatorial symmetry, always helps)... Finally the Indian Ocean has been shut down, even if this is temporarily the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Awesome, Webber! Does that make it more likely to get big snow before the winter is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That being said, if it turns out right for what it's showing for Feb, it's not the best solution for us, regardless of how it got there. I am hopeful that things will align for a good winter storm. All we need is a small period where the pattern sets up for it, and we'll be happy. I don't think we go all of Feb and early March and get shut out (shut out as in no appreciable snow).but in all honesty it can't be wrong. It shows every possible solution over the course of its thousands of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's a little late today, but you know what they say..."If it can't snow in ten days, well...yeah, it's not gonna snow in ten days." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks like the CFS has been trending colder for February over the last few days, CR. FAB FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hey everyone! I know I have pretty much thrown in the towel, but a few things are positive right now. There actually might be some potential, **IF** we can get some blocking in the atlantic and we can slow the flow down. Any who, thanks for watching...and if you don't...no worries https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hey everyone! I know I have pretty much thrown in the towel, but a few things are positive right now. There actually might be some potential, **IF** we can get some blocking in the atlantic and we can slow the flow down. Any who, thanks for watching...and if you don't...no worries https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons I for one Chris appreciate you taking the time to do the videos! I like watching them..... Now if you could please put in a order for a WINTER STORM for the SE I will be happy!!! lol Keep up the good work... BF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I for one Chris appreciate you taking the time to do the videos! I like watching them..... Now if you could please put in a order for a WINTER STORM for the SE I will be happy!!! lol Keep up the good work... BF Thank you! I enjoy doing them...I would love too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This telecom report brought to you by Alka Seltzer: Plop plop fizz fizz...oh what a relief it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This telecom report brought to you by Alka Seltzer: Plop plop fizz fizz...oh what a relief it is. CR, I always look forward to your daily telecom report, especially with the added symbolic embellishments. Most are usually self-explanatory, but for us laymen, we may need some interpretation. Kevin Costner and Happy Gilmore are both celebrating so the CFSv2 maps for now appear to be a plus. However, the AO map doesn't look good and Pac-Man being eaten is obviously bad. Is Kramer a good thing? Also, I'm not sure if Chevy Chase is expressing awe, anticipation, or disappointment. Care to elaborate? And thanks for the laughs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CR, I always look forward to your daily telecom report, especially with the added symbolic embellishments. Most are usually self-explanatory, but for us laymen, we may need some interpretation. Kevin Costner and Happy Gilmore are both celebrating so the CFSv2 maps for now appear to be a plus. However, the AO map doesn't look good and Pac-Man being eaten is obviously bad. Is Kramer a good thing? Also, I'm not sure if Chevy Chase is expressing awe, anticipation, or disappointment. Care to elaborate? And thanks for the laughs! Thanks bud! Tin Cup just made his 13 on a Par 5, so he's happy. Happy Gilmore is happy, because, well that's his name. So you're right. The CFS looks cool and wet for Feb. That's good. Whammies are bad and so is the AO. The ensembles are mixed, though. It goes neg and then pos...but some members take it neg again. Bias has been too negative and it's ended up positive. So, I gave it a whammy. NAO is and has been and forever will be terrible. Pacman dies. The MJO actually looks good, and Clark Griswold can't believe it! Can you hear the Hallelujah Chorus playing in the background? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CR, I always look forward to your daily telecom report, especially with the added symbolic embellishments. Most are usually self-explanatory, but for us laymen, we may need some interpretation. Kevin Costner and Happy Gilmore are both celebrating so the CFSv2 maps for now appear to be a plus. However, the AO map doesn't look good and Pac-Man being eaten is obviously bad. Is Kramer a good thing? Also, I'm not sure if Chevy Chase is expressing awe, anticipation, or disappointment. Care to elaborate? And thanks for the laughs! I think everything was good except AO and NAO, however the AO looks like it trended with a lot more members going negative....NAO looks like it's going that direction too, pretty good. Not Chevy Chase plug in moment good, but close. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thanks bud! Tin Cup just made his 13 on a Par 5, so he's happy. Happy Gilmore is happy, because, well that's his name. So you're right. The CFS looks cool and wet for Feb. That's good. Whammies are bad and so is the AO. The ensembles are mixed, though. It goes neg and then pos...but some members take it neg again. Bias has been too negative and it's ended up positive. So, I gave it a whammy. NAO is and has been and forever will be terrible. Pacman dies. The MJO actually looks good, and Clark Griswold can't believe it! Can you hear the Hallelujah Chorus playing in the background? The MJO @ this point in time is virtually dead w/ a weak wavenumber 2 signature and the EOFs are actually picking up on a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that's crossing the central Pacific @ this point in time & w/ a bit of help from the re-invigorated & more conducive upper level circulation (to an El Nino of course), this is likely what's causing RMM to come out w/ modest amplitude into the Pacific, although I should caution you in saying that the american based guidance (GFS, CFS, etc.) has a tendency to over-amplify the MJO in this portion of the globe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The MJO @ this point in time is virtually dead w/ a weak wavenumber 2 signature and the EOFs are actually picking up on a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that's crossing the central Pacific @ this point in time & w/ a bit of help from the re-invigorated & more conducive upper level circulation (to an El Nino of course), this is likely what's causing RMM to come out w/ modest amplitude into the Pacific, although I should caution you in saying that the american based guidance (GFS, CFS, etc.) has a tendency to over-amplify the MJO in this portion of the globe... I'm fine if it stays dead honestly. I don't think it's helped us very much this winter, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can we buy any snowflakes anytime soon? A new weather video is up online and we go to try and find some. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The whammy for the AO is the best. Nice "guidance" there...come on -4, big money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Friday 1/30 edition of the daily telecon report is brought to you by: Big Mac, Mc DLT, a quarter-pounder with some cheese, filet-O-fish, a hamburger, a cheeseburger, a happy meal. McNuggets, tasty golden french fries, regular or larger size, and salads chef salad or garden, or a chicken salad oriental. Big big breakfast, egg mcmuffin, hot hot cakes, and sausage. Maybe biscuits, bacon, egg and cheese, a sausage, danish, hash browns too. And for dessert hot apple pies, and sundaes three varieties, a soft-serve cone, three kinds of shakes, and chocolatey chip cookies. And to drink a Coca Cola diet Coke, and orange drink, a Sprite and coffee, decaf too, a low fat milk, also an orange juice. I love McDonald's, good time great taste, and I get this all at one place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Atta boy CR! All Indeces are encouraging with of course the the exception being the NAO. We will never see a -NAO again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Friday 1/30 edition of the daily telecon report is brought to you by: Big Mac, Mc DLT, a quarter-pounder with some cheese, filet-O-fish, a hamburger, a cheeseburger, a happy meal. McNuggets, tasty golden french fries, regular or larger size, and salads chef salad or garden, or a chicken salad oriental. Big big breakfast, egg mcmuffin, hot hot cakes, and sausage. Maybe biscuits, bacon, egg and cheese, a sausage, danish, hash browns too. And for dessert hot apple pies, and sundaes three varieties, a soft-serve cone, three kinds of shakes, and chocolatey chip cookies. And to drink a Coca Cola diet Coke, and orange drink, a Sprite and coffee, decaf too, a low fat milk, also an orange juice. I love McDonald's, good time great taste, and I get this all at one place! ao_sprd2.jpg CFSv2_NaT2m_20150130_201502.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg CR you are a funny guy. Keep us laughing buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Friday 1/30 edition of the daily telecon report is brought to you by: Big Mac, Mc DLT, a quarter-pounder with some cheese, filet-O-fish, a hamburger, a cheeseburger, a happy meal. McNuggets, tasty golden french fries, regular or larger size, and salads chef salad or garden, or a chicken salad oriental. Big big breakfast, egg mcmuffin, hot hot cakes, and sausage. Maybe biscuits, bacon, egg and cheese, a sausage, danish, hash browns too. And for dessert hot apple pies, and sundaes three varieties, a soft-serve cone, three kinds of shakes, and chocolatey chip cookies. And to drink a Coca Cola diet Coke, and orange drink, a Sprite and coffee, decaf too, a low fat milk, also an orange juice. I love McDonald's, good time great taste, and I get this all at one place! I thought I was the only one that memorized that McDonalds commercial. I was in middle school then and can still recite it today. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I thought I was the only one that memorized that McDonalds commercial. I was in middle school then and can still recite it today. Good times! Thanks guys! All we can do is laugh at this winter, I guess. That's all we have left. Truth be told, I remembered that song almost word for word. But I did look it up before I posted it just to make sure I got it right. I had missed a couple of words, but had the gist of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks guys! All we can do is laugh at this winter, I guess. That's all we have left. Truth be told, I remembered that song almost word for word. But I did look it up before I posted it just to make sure I got it right. I had missed a couple of words, but had the gist of it. Grumpy cat and His Airness were perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Friday 1/30 edition of the daily telecon report is brought to you by: Big Mac, Mc DLT, a quarter-pounder with some cheese, filet-O-fish, a hamburger, a cheeseburger, a happy meal. McNuggets, tasty golden french fries, regular or larger size, and salads chef salad or garden, or a chicken salad oriental. Big big breakfast, egg mcmuffin, hot hot cakes, and sausage. Maybe biscuits, bacon, egg and cheese, a sausage, danish, hash browns too. And for dessert hot apple pies, and sundaes three varieties, a soft-serve cone, three kinds of shakes, and chocolatey chip cookies. And to drink a Coca Cola diet Coke, and orange drink, a Sprite and coffee, decaf too, a low fat milk, also an orange juice. I love McDonald's, good time great taste, and I get this all at one place! CR FTW! Let's see if the indices can help brew us up a winter storm by the end of the month. All it takes is one good storm to turn our frowns upside down. Thanks for another great post that made me laugh...by the power of Grayskull, indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The CFS continues to look better and better. Supposedly, it's money at such short ranges, so game-on for Fab Feb? Of course, we're never going to get a -NAO or anything like that, but I gave up on that a long time ago. Marvelous March is also looking cold on recent CFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The CFS continues to look better and better. Supposedly, it's money at such short ranges, so game-on for Fab Feb? Of course, we're never going to get a -NAO or anything like that, but I gave up on that a long time ago. Marvelous March is also looking cold on recent CFS runs.All the models suck! My account is at -4,345.09, with all the " money" looks on the models this year! Don't know why we can't stop looking, but after next weeks cold rain or two, the GFS long range , looks like a dumpster fire, fwiw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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