packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think the CFS is going to end up doing fairly well for Jan's temps, it's going to be a little warm for the SE but got the gradients down fairly well. It nailed Dec too. The next 5 days are neutral for the SE so shouldn't change much. I tend to blend the last 3 runs of the CFS to see how it did instead of just picking one single day. Feb's forecast, have a week left of run though: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201502.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Pack, Feb has been consistently shown to be cold in the east. Looks like a dry pattern, just looking at the temp anoms. If you look at the CFS precip anoms, it bears that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice work on the CFS Pack. As you've shown, it has done quite well in recent winters when looking at the last few runs of the month for the upcoming month forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Telecons and MJO update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Pack, Feb has been consistently shown to be cold in the east. Looks like a dry pattern, just looking at the temp anoms. If you look at the CFS precip anoms, it bears that out. South Tx and FL still look wet so if you want snow it's not a bad look, suppressive storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Who cares what the telecons look like. If we can cash in next week I could care less how the rest of winter plays out The diving AO and rising PNA is important for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The diving AO and rising PNA is important for next week.Yessir. That would make sense of the persistent Storm track the Gefs and operational runs have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The diving AO and rising PNA is important for next week. Clearly...... My point was more to what happens after next weekend . That's my fault I should have been more clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro EPS = -AO/-NAO/+PNA GFS ENS = -AO/-NAO/+PNA Canadian ENS? = -AO/-NAO The models may have lost the storm, but what some don't realize is a huge trend in the 12z runs towards favorable teleconnections on most big models. Some of these went + to - from 6z to 12z, others neutral to negative, but this isn't a bad look. Yeah it's not a deep negative signal but if you look at the spread (in green), you can see the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 More weather changes are in the forecast. Plenty of interesting weather possible. Details in the video, thanks for watching. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Joe Bastardi still predicting pattern setting up for 45 plus days watch video on Twitter thru this link https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/559420707189583872 Video from Saturday over to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here is today's telecon/MJO report. Happy Monday! This report brought to you by our good friends at Who Gives A @#$%*$! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GFS would have the majority of the US basically in a warm pattern by mid February. Would this be the end of any SE winter chances--I don't know. But we would then be looking at March to save us. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=372&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GFS would have the majority of the US basically in a warm pattern by mid February. Would this be the end of any SE winter chances--I don't know. But we would then be looking at March to save us. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? Mike V tweeted this pic this morning. The pattern is going to the crapper, it takes a couple of weeks to get out of something like this, if at all. I would imagine by Feb 10th, we will start seeing fantasy 10+ day patterns showing up again and the usual suspects will get all worked up that end of Feb will be great. It's over for us in the SE. The MA to the NE will still have there chances, they will do alright, probably sneak in another big event. I imagine some people going to come in here and laugh, it's only Jan 26th, Feb is our best month anyways. Or we will get the it can snow in March crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Mike V tweeted this pic this morning. The pattern is going to the crapper, it takes a couple of weeks to get out of something like this, if at all. I would imagine by Feb 10th, we will start seeing fantasy 10+ day patterns showing up again and the usual suspects will get all worked up that end of Feb will be great. It's over for us in the SE. The MA to the NE will still have there chances, they will do alright, probably sneak in another big event. I imagine some people going to come in here and laugh, it's only Jan 26th, Feb is our best month anyways. Or we will get the it can snow in March crap. If it happens at all. Not laughing, but I wonder sometimes how people look at 10-15 or 11-15 day means and consider them verbatim options. The trough has already shifted west on the 12z mean and the positive heights on the west are also better. I like Ventrice but 11-15 or 10-15 day means change run to run so it's important to not write off time periods 10+ days out as if they are already decided. New 10-15 (compare to the Ventrice image) 00z Euro MEAN heights valid 12z 06 Feb New 12z Euro MEAN heights valid 12z 06 Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If it happens at all. Not laughing, but I wonder sometimes how people look at 10-15 or 11-15 day means and consider them verbatim options. The trough has already shifted west on the 12z mean and the positive heights on the west are also better. I like Ventrice but 11-15 or 10-15 day means change run to run so it's important to not write off time periods 10+ days out as if they are already decided. New 10-15 (compare to the Ventrice image) 00z Euro MEAN heights valid 12z 06 Feb New 12z Euro MEAN heights valid 12z 06 Feb So your showing a +EPO/+++AO/++NAO pattern and that's suppose to refute what MikeV was saying? It's been this way all winter, we have yet to get into a good snowy pattern for us. It's not like we have had crap looking patterns in the day 10+ and then as we get closer we develop great patterns, it's the exact opposite. It's been the other way around all winter. Why would it change now? The PNA I guess is positive, and now SE ridge so we got that going for us but with the cold bottled up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So your showing a +EPO/+++AO/++NAO pattern and that's suppose to refute what MikeV was saying? It's been this way all winter, we have yet to get into a good snowy pattern for us. It's not like we have had crap looking patterns in the day 10+ and then as we get closer we develop great patterns, it's the exact opposite. It's been the other way around all winter. Why would it change now? The PNA I guess is positive, and now SE ridge so we got that going for us but with the cold bottled up... It's not like it's a warm look based on the GGEM and EURO ensembles at hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So your showing a +EPO/+++AO/++NAO pattern and that's suppose to refute what MikeV was saying? It's been this way all winter, we have yet to get into a good snowy pattern for us. It's not like we have had crap looking patterns in the day 10+ and then as we get closer we develop great patterns, it's the exact opposite. It's been the other way around all winter. Why would it change now? The PNA I guess is positive, and now SE ridge so we got that going for us but with the cold bottled up... I'm saying MikeV has been posting 11-15 day maps all winter that don't verify and to take them with a grain, just like if you saw an 11-15 showing a blockbuster pattern, would you lock that in??? No. You'll be the first one to say "that never verifies"...In 12 hours the 5 day mean for this time period shifted, so did the mean for specific dates, most importantly the one I linked to. Odds of developing a good pattern out of a bad pattern with very low actual verification scores in 11-15 is insignificant. The cold could easily trend south in the LR it's not like somehow the Euro EPS is a crystal ball now. When you see teleconnections flipping inside day 10 every 24 hours how can you trust something in the 11-15? That's my point. Now I haven't been looking at modeling lately, too busy, so maybe that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm saying MikeV has been posting 11-15 day maps all winter that don't verify and to take them with a grain, just like if you saw an 11-15 showing a blockbuster pattern, would you lock that in??? No. You'll be the first one to say "that never verifies"...In 12 hours the 5 day mean for this time period shifted, so did the mean for specific dates, most importantly the one I linked to. Odds of developing a good pattern out of a bad pattern with very low actual verification scores in 11-15 is insignificant. The cold could easily trend south in the LR it's not like sopmehow the Euro EPS is a crystal ball now. When you see teleconnections flipping inside day 10 every 24 hours how can you trust something in the 11-15? That's my point. Now I haven't been looking at modeling lately, too busy, so maybe that's a good thing. Love your optimism Jon! Unfortunately I'm getting that uneasy feeling here that if one of those next week doesn't work out, that could be it for many of us. Just haven't seen anything good at all since Nov, and I completely missed on the Nov 1 snow . As for your comment on locking in the 11-15 warmth vs an 11-15 day blockbuster, you're 100 percent correct. Only factor that should be considered is that where we live, warmer is more likely than colder, so an 11-15 day warm prog is more likely than a cold one. Or to say it another way, a colder one is less likely to verify than a warmer one. I think there is quite a bit of truth to this particular stereotype when it comes to models and patterns in the SE. Even the mtns are not immune as they have had a pretty crappy winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Love your optimism Jon! Unfortunately I'm getting that uneasy feeling here that if one of those next week doesn't work out, that could be it for many of us. Just haven't seen anything good at all since Nov, and I completely missed on the Nov 1 snow . As for your comment on locking in the 11-15 warmth vs an 11-15 day blockbuster, you're 100 percent correct. Only factor that should be considered is that where we live, warmer is more likely than colder, so an 11-15 day warm prog is more likely than a cold one. Or to say it another way, a colder one is less likely to verify than a warmer one. I think there is quite a bit of truth to this particular stereotype when it comes to models and patterns in the SE. Even the mtns are not immune as they have had a pretty crappy winter too. I think for the LR, we might not see anything inside day 10 that works out, but I really, really like whats showing up on the models the first week of feb, around Feb 4th-Feb 6th. To say this winter is cooked is a little much, this is the best pattern I've seen that at least gives us some energy to work with and is spitting out "close" and sometimes fantasy solutions. A handful of ensemble members have the SE buried, one of them has widespread 9"+ through the northern half of the gulf states through NC. Just think back to what we were dealing with in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think for the LR, we might not see anything inside day 10 that works out, but I really, really like whats showing up on the models the first week of feb, around Feb 4th-Feb 6th. To say this winter is cooked is a little much, this is the best pattern I've seen that at least gives us some energy to work with and is spitting out "close" and sometimes fantasy solutions. A handful of ensemble members have the SE buried, one of them has widespread 9"+ through the northern half of the gulf states through NC. Just think back to what we were dealing with in December... Yep, last winter, the big snow wasn't until mid February. I still believe we will get one. However, we will need some blocking that doesn't disappear once you get inside 7 days. The models have been laughable at best. I can't believe how badly they have been performing as of late. Usually, they have poor verification scores just prior to a pattern change, but I see no hints of any major shift right now. I think it would be wise to stick with "7 days or less" for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 7 days or less might be too much as inconsistent as the models have been lately. Maybe more like 5 or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This telecon report brought to you by Sanka. Sanka...Everything you love about coffee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CR, those graphs fooking hysterical! Thanks for the comedy relief! I love the " Friday-smokey" on the one from yesterday! I love next week , if it does not rain, I will not post again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well, I guess its about that time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This telecon report brought to you by Sanka. Sanka...Everything you love about coffee! ao_sprd2.gif CFSv2_NaT2m_20150127_201502.gif NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif Holy crap that looks awful, or great if your hoping for warmth. The CFS folding is hilarious, although I see it's showing a wet SE . Don't fret, Webber and Burger say Feb's can't miss in the SE with +ENSO/+PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Frigid first 2 months of the winter...#FabFabFTW Precip really has been nino like though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CR, those graphs fooking hysterical! Thanks for the comedy relief! I love the " Friday-smokey" on the one from yesterday! I love next week , if it does not rain, I will not post again! Glad ya like it. Pack, that temp map isn't too far from normal. We should be able to score some snow with those relatively benign departures. But, unfortunately, it just hasn't been our winter so far. Maybe it will change, though. The CFS has only been right 10 out of the last 11 months. So it's not perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Holy crap that looks awful, or great if your hoping for warmth. The CFS folding is hilarious, although I see it's showing a wet SE . Don't fret, Webber and Burger say Feb's can't miss in the SE with +ENSO/+PDO. Once again pack, you've decided to blow things out of proportion, at no point did I explicit say February is a "can't miss" in the southeastern states, I just used a wide array of valid research to arrive at a plausible conclusion, and even I understand the uncertainty & margin of error involved, it's called being a scientist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Glad ya like it. Pack, that temp map isn't too far from normal. We should be able to score some snow with those relatively benign departures. But, unfortunately, it just hasn't been our winter so far. Maybe it will change, though. The CFS has only been right 10 out of the last 11 months. So it's not perfect. That's funny! I don't know why the CFS has been bashed so much, it's not perfect, but when you blend the last 3-4 days of the months model run for the next month it's been fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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