superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That 04-05 winter was not that bad. No big events but a lot of small ones. The Raleigh snow jam shows it doesn't take much if the timing is right to cause big problems. And I was in SE VA for the Dec 26 storm and it was awesome up there. Now sure what I would rather have, a lot n of small snow events for winter, or one big huge storm with over a foot of snow. You were happy about getting less than an inch of snow on the winter and like 15% of your seasonal average? Of course, I guess it was better for you since you got to experience the Dec 26 storm further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well I suppose the answer lies in weather you prefer having the general "winter experience" with long lasting cold weather and intermittent small events (if it's prone to your area) or more of the type where you'll take one big snow event and then toss the rest of the season out, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well I suppose the answer lies in weather you prefer having the general "winter experience" with long lasting cold weather and intermittent small events (if it's prone to your area) or more of the type where you'll take one big snow event and then toss the rest of the season out, so to speak. long lasting cold just isn't an option in Georgia, which is why I'm perfectly fine having a warm winter with one good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You were happy about getting less than an inch of snow on the winter and like 15% of your seasonal average? Of course, I guess it was better for you since you got to experience the Dec 26 storm further NE. I think the snowjam in Raleigh made it entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For me, its a no brainer. I would take a big storm over several tiny ones every winter. A 6" storm is a lot more enjoyable than three 2" storms to me. Agree 100%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For me, its a no brainer. I would take a big storm over several tiny ones every winter. A 6" storm is a lot more enjoyable than three 2" storms to me. Three 6 inch storms would be great. Or a couple of 3 and one huge one over 6 would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Agree 100%!Is this banter thread?I love chicken wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Three 6 inch storms would be great. Or a couple of 3 and one huge one over 6 would be fun.There's a joke in there somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well I suppose the answer lies in weather you prefer having the general "winter experience" with long lasting cold weather and intermittent small events (if it's prone to your area) or more of the type where you'll take one big snow event and then toss the rest of the season out, so to speak. Very true. Personally, I'll take a few moderate events spread over the winter over a big dog unless that big dog is 12"+ (since I've never actually experienced one of those first-hand). That being said, in the end I'll take them however I can get them. This isn't the NE, so we can't be picky. I think the snowjam in Raleigh made it entertaining. True enough. It had some high-impact events like the ice storm, as well, but I still would call it a dismal failure of a winter. Fortunately, I did not live here that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0Z GEFS mean clearly shows that a winter storm is quite possible ~2/1-2. The mean shows Gulf moisture overrunning Arctic air via a Miller A 2/1-2. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0Z GEFS mean clearly shows that a winter storm is quite possible ~2/1-1. The mean shows Gulf moisture overrunning Arctic air via a Miller A 2/1-2. Keep hope alive. Interesting Larry! TY The drunk DOC is on that damn stage again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the mean 850's on the 0Z GEFS, it would likely be ZR/IP for most below NC/TN and then a good bit of snow included for much of NC/TN fwiw this far out (still mainly entertainment). Edit: lol, Chris, I think the Doc has been doctoring himself up too much with Granny's healing tonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the mean 850's on the 0Z GEFS, it would likely be ZR/IP for most below NC/TN and then a good bit of snow included for much of NC/TN fwiw this far out (still mainly entertainment). Edit: lol, Chris, I think the Doc has been doctoring himself up too much with Granny's healing tonic. I think so as well..hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ice storm for KCAE. Woot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 TodayS soi is -38.5. Should start February with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z GFS says enjoy your rainy Groundhog Day ! Low tracks across CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 TodayS soi is -38.5. Should start February with a bang! Since the SOI is a station based index, among other ENSO indices, it is among the noisiest, and is thus susceptible to local weather variability that may be entirely unrelated to the ferocity of the easterly trade winds... In saying this, there is no doubt the MJO progression through the Pacific has caused a significant WWB, especially evident in the warming of the SSTs in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and induced a major crash in the SOI. Nikko in the Southeastern Pacific is in very close proximity to French Polynesia, one of the stations (along w/ Darwin, Australia of course) used to measure the SOI, and it is likely this tropical cyclone is negatively skewing the daily values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LR continues to look just uber fantastic!! Telecons: MJO: CFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The March 2, 1927 snow that webber mentioned... can't ask for a better setup than that. Probably was a closed ULL rolling across the south that sparked that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LR continues to look just uber fantastic!! Telecons: ao_sprd2.gif MJO: NCPE_BC_phase_21m_small.gif CFS: CFSv2_NaT2m_20150121_201502.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Counterpoint, I like it. Truth be told, I'd rather have the Euro on board vs all others. It's reasonable to think we FINALLY get some blocking this winter. In time to help, we can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Haha, nice Jon! Hopefully, the Force is with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Haha, nice Jon! Hopefully, the Force is with the Euro. FWIW the EPS mean jumped from +1 AO/ +1 NAO to neutral in both categories...so maybe it's picking up in a good LR pattern, maybe not....who cares at this point I'm just going to wait until Fishel posts an snow accumulation map for Raleigh and check the forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 FWIW the EPS mean jumped from +1 AO/ +1 NAO to neutral in both categories...so maybe it's picking up in a good LR pattern, maybe not....who cares at this point I'm just going to wait until Fishel posts an snow accumulation map for Raleigh and check the forums If you wait for Fishel to do that it won't be until 24 hours before the potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If you wait for Fishel to do that it won't be until 24 hours before the potential event. exactly. HRRR/RAP/nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Major major CAD signal showing up still on the GFS with that fantasy storm Feb. 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great looking end of the month setup on the 12z GFS. I can wait till then if that setup can materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great looking end of the month setup on the 12z GFS. I can wait till then if that setup can materialize. Totally agreed. I want to get on the board with this event on Friday and wait out until the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not a fantasy IMO, as most of the models are showing the combo of major CAD and a huge STJ vort. Of course the timing is critical, but this could be the one we've been waiting for(Jan31st - Feb 3rd) timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just to add to this, the euro ENS prob has the best CAD setup for that time frame we've seen since the early 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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