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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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That 04-05 winter was not that bad. No big events but a lot of small ones. The Raleigh snow jam shows it doesn't take much if the timing is right to cause big problems. And I was in SE VA for the Dec 26 storm and it was awesome up there.

Now sure what I would rather have, a lot n of small snow events for winter, or one big huge storm with over a foot of snow.

You were happy about getting less than an inch of snow on the winter and like 15% of your seasonal average?

Of course, I guess it was better for you since you got to experience the Dec 26 storm further NE.

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Well I suppose the answer lies in weather you prefer having the general "winter experience" with long lasting cold weather and intermittent small events (if it's prone to your area)  or more of the type where you'll take one big snow event and then toss the rest of the season out, so to speak.

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Well I suppose the answer lies in weather you prefer having the general "winter experience" with long lasting cold weather and intermittent small events (if it's prone to your area) or more of the type where you'll take one big snow event and then toss the rest of the season out, so to speak.

long lasting cold just isn't an option in Georgia, which is why I'm perfectly fine having a warm winter with one good snow event.
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Well I suppose the answer lies in weather you prefer having the general "winter experience" with long lasting cold weather and intermittent small events (if it's prone to your area)  or more of the type where you'll take one big snow event and then toss the rest of the season out, so to speak.

 

Very true.  Personally, I'll take a few moderate events spread over the winter over a big dog unless that big dog is 12"+ (since I've never actually experienced one of those first-hand).  That being said, in the end I'll take them however I can get them.  This isn't the NE, so we can't be picky.

 

I think the snowjam in Raleigh made it entertaining.

 

True enough.  It had some high-impact events like the ice storm, as well, but I still would call it a dismal failure of a winter.  Fortunately, I did not live here that winter. :)

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 Looking at the mean 850's on the 0Z GEFS, it would likely be ZR/IP for most below NC/TN and then a good bit of snow included for much of NC/TN fwiw this far out (still mainly entertainment).

 

Edit: lol, Chris, I think the Doc has been doctoring himself up too much with Granny's healing tonic. ;)

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 Looking at the mean 850's on the 0Z GEFS, it would likely be ZR/IP for most below NC/TN and then a good bit of snow included for much of NC/TN fwiw this far out (still mainly entertainment).

 

Edit: lol, Chris, I think the Doc has been doctoring himself up too much with Granny's healing tonic. ;)

I think so as well..hahah

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TodayS soi is -38.5. Should start February with a bang!

 

Since the SOI is a station based index, among other ENSO indices, it is among the noisiest, and is thus susceptible to local weather variability that may be entirely unrelated to the ferocity of the easterly trade winds... In saying this, there is no doubt the MJO progression through the Pacific has caused a significant WWB, especially evident in the warming of the SSTs in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and induced a major crash in the SOI.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Nikko in the Southeastern Pacific is in very close proximity to French Polynesia, one of the stations (along w/ Darwin, Australia of course) used to measure the SOI, and it is likely this tropical cyclone is negatively skewing the daily values.

 

Nikko-Southeastern-Pacific-Jan-21-2015-S

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Haha, nice Jon! Hopefully, the Force is with the Euro.

FWIW the EPS mean jumped from +1 AO/ +1 NAO to neutral in both categories...so maybe it's picking up in a good LR pattern, maybe not....who cares at this point I'm just going to wait until Fishel posts an snow accumulation map for Raleigh and check the forums :)

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FWIW the EPS mean jumped from +1 AO/ +1 NAO to neutral in both categories...so maybe it's picking up in a good LR pattern, maybe not....who cares at this point I'm just going to wait until Fishel posts an snow accumulation map for Raleigh and check the forums :)

 

If you wait for Fishel to do that it won't be until 24 hours before the potential event.

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