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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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So say we get a monster storm some time in Feb with widespread 12-24" amts and that was the end of it... would that "save" the season? Would all that griping be for naught?

Absolutely most here, I assume, including me would be pleased with a 2-4" given how craptastic this winter has been.

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So say we get a monster storm some time in Feb with widespread 12-24" amts and that was the end of it... would that "save" the season? Would all that griping be for naught?

Since Atlanta has never received a 12"+ single storm snow since records began in 1879 (10-11" is tops) and 12" would be six average seasons' worth, it would way more than just save the season. It would instantly become a historic winter. This kind of climo is why it is kind of silly IMO to be focused on there having been no measurable snow/sleet there to this point.
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Since Atlanta has never received a 12"+ single storm snow since records began in 1879 (10-11" is tops) and 12" would be six average seasons' worth, it would way more than just save the season. It would instantly become a historic winter. This kind of climo is why it is kind of silly IMO to be focused on there having been no measurable snow/sleet there to this point.

To each his own, but I'd think of it as an historic storm in an otherwise dismal winter.

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lol.. I only have a few so if I get 12 and finish with an average winter it would be subpar considering the ensembles and pro state.

yeah I agree. So far my rating on this winter is a D. Our best month so far was November. Not tossing winter until May though. I would not mind a cold and snowy spring which I think when we really see true blocking showing up finally.
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To each his own, but I'd think of it as an historic storm in an otherwise dismal winter.

That would be another way to look at it. However, I'd still call it a historic winter because Atlanta often gets only one measurable snow anyway, even when that one snow is a major hit. Sometimes that one snow is as late as March. Atlanta doesn't typically get a series of measurable snows/sleets unlike, say, NC.

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yeah I agree. So far my rating on this winter is a D. Our best month so far was November. Not tossing winter until May though. I would not mind a cold and snowy spring which I think when we really see true blocking showing up finally.

man, my post was supposed to say enso, and pdo state.
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So say we get a monster storm some time in Feb with widespread 12-24" amts and that was the end of it... would that "save" the season? Would all that griping be for naught?

Is this a trick question ? If we had 12" in GA it would be the best winter ever. At this point, I would consider this winter a success if I see a few flakes. Anything more is just a bonus. Even 1" of snow and I would be very happy with this winter. Its crazy when you think about it, but this winter could turn from the worst winter ever to the best winter ever if we get lucky and everything falls in place. I'm still holding out hope that ATL gets its first 6" snowfall in 32 years.
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Is this a trick question ? If we had 12" in GA it would be the best winter ever. At this point, I would consider this winter a success if I see a few flakes. Anything more is just a bonus. Even 1" of snow and I would be very happy with this winter. Its crazy when you think about it, but this winter could turn from the worst winter ever to the best winter ever if we get lucky and everything falls in place. I'm still holding out hope that ATL gets its first 6" snowfall in 32 years.

Didn't even get 6" during the 93 superstorm?

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That would be another way to look at it. However, I'd still call it a historic winter because Atlanta often gets only one measurable snow anyway, even when that one snow is a major hit. Sometimes that one snow is as late as March. Atlanta doesn't typically get a series of measurable snows/sleets unlike, say, NC.

Prime example is 2009. MBY got one snow (3/1/2009). I finished the season at 250% of annual snow total because of one big wet 5" snow. I would take the 12'-24" in a heartbeat and cash out. I think the original question and the variety of answers we have seen show us the how the differences in climo throughout the SE weigh into the different opinions and emotions as the winter unfolds. I am rather confident that I am still going finish the winter with above normal snowfall. Todays ensembles provided more encouragement. I also realize what makes me happy and satisfied may fall way short of satisfaction for many to my north.

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Didn't even get 6" during the 93 superstorm?

Downtown got around six since they didn't switch to snow until five or six in the morning. I grew up 30 miles NW and we had a brief but if sleet but it was pouring snow by 7pm so we had somewhere between 14"-18". A few miles made a big difference.
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Downtown got around six since they didn't switch to snow until five or six in the morning. I grew up 30 miles NW and we had a brief but if sleet but it was pouring snow by 7pm so we had somewhere between 14"-18". A few miles made a big difference.

I don't know why but in Atlanta it seems like a few miles always makes a big difference, despite most locations being close to the same elevation and no ocean nearby. It's not like NYC where they are often moderated by the ocean and areas northwest get a lot more snow. The airport is close to 1,000' elevation and I'm pretty sure most of the city is around that, give or take 100'.
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To each his own, but I'd think of it as an historic storm in an otherwise dismal winter.

 

The winter of 1926-27 is the epitome of the notion of a "diamond in the rough"... The winter as a whole is virtually what I would quantify as a dry blowtorch for the southeastern US, even March was relatively mild. 1926-27 was the best of both worlds, mild enough so you could still try & hit the links & bask in the winter sun, and then delivered the ultimate snowstorm in the very end. A weather enthusiast couldn't possibly ask for much more than that...

DJF-US-temperature-anomalies-1926-27.png

 

DJF-1926-27-US-precipitation-anomaly.png

 

 

IMO the early March 1927 blizzard is w/o a single shred of doubt, the biggest snowstorm in the historical record to strike east-central North Carolina. January 2000 or March 1980 don't come close to matching the sheer coverage, intensity, and numbers this storm put out. It still blows my mind... If I'm correct, even though the total isn't listed in the NC State Winter storm database, I think the 31" total in Nashville, NC just east of Raleigh was the official state record until the March 1993 superstorm, although in April 1987 a massive storm unofficially dropped 5 feet of snow at Newfoundland Gap.

 

March 2, 1927 North Atlantic Surface Weather Map. The minimum estimated central pressure in the low pressure off Hatteras at the time was reported to be around 29.20 inches or 989 millibars, a category 1 hurricane equivalent.

March-2-1927-North-Atlantic-Surface-Map-

 

 

Once again here's the snowman from the storm, just amazing how widespread & insane these snow totals were, I could imagine since March is the most favored month for Thundersnow, there was more than likely some thunder/lightning to go along w/ the 20 inches-2 feet+ of snow across much of central-eastern NC.

March-1927-US-Snow-Totals-1024x752.png

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I think the airport got 4.5" if I remember correctly.

something like that. Atlanta actually had a bigger snow the year before, in January 1992. 1992 and 1993 were the best back to back years for snowfall in my lifetime.

If I recall correctly, someone said 1991-92 was a horrible winter. But all I remember is that we had a huge snow.

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That 04-05 winter was not that bad. No big events but a lot of small ones. The Raleigh snow jam shows it doesn't take much if the timing is right to cause big problems. And I was in SE VA for the Dec 26 storm and it was awesome up there.

Now sure what I would rather have, a lot n of small snow events for winter, or one big huge storm with over a foot of snow.

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That 04-05 winter was not that bad. No big events but a lot of small ones. The Raleigh snow jam shows it doesn't take much if the timing is right to cause big problems. And I was in SE VA for the Dec 26 storm and it was awesome up there.

Now sure what I would rather have, a lot n of small snow events for winter, or one big huge storm with over a foot of snow.

For me, its a no brainer. I would take a big storm over several tiny ones every winter. A 6" storm is a lot more enjoyable than three 2" storms to me.
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