GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The late 6-10 day 12Z Euro looks decent patternwise for continued cold. Also, the Euro overall is colder for the SE. Normally, that would get the forum in a good mood. Paging Norman Vincent Peale, paging Norman Vincent Peale, please come to the SE forum, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Back to pattern discussion. The forum will likely love the look of the EPS late 6-10+. It is a beautiful +PNA and stronger than what the 0Z EPS had. Did see that. It does look much more pronounced than this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The late 6-10 day 12Z Euro looks decent patternwise for continued cold. Also, the Euro overall is colder for the SE. Normally, that would get the forum in a good mood. Paging Norman Vincent Peale, paging Norman Vincent Peale, please come to the SE forum, stat. Too bad there no hint of energy cutting under that ridge . Looks pretty cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The off topic discussion has been moved to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Now....back to your regular scheduled program The off topic discussion has been moved to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12Z EPS fwiw (more entertainment than anything for now I suppose) suggests a SE Miller A storm threat for 2/1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Too bad there no hint of energy cutting under that ridge . Looks pretty cold and dry Yes, indeed, but check out 2/1-3! Could this be the start of the Webber endorsed fab Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yes, indeed, but check out 2/1-3! Could this be the start of the Webber endorsed fab Feb? Very well could be ..... Only 11 more days to find out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12Z EPS fwiw (more entertainment than anything for now I suppose) suggests a SE Miller A storm threat for 2/1-3.I want credit for the 2/2 timeframe! I brought it up agent it was the hour 384 panel 3 or 4 days ago!In that timeframe it went from bomb for us , to a plains bomb , now back to Mille A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I want credit for the 2/2 timeframe! I brought it up agent it was the hour 384 panel 3 or 4 days ago! In that timeframe it went from bomb for us , to a plains bomb , now back to Mille A Ok, Mack, the Webber/Mack endorsed Fab Feb start. Normally, a look like this would get the forum pretty dern excited. It really is a very nice look to the EPS, which if anything has averaged warm biased. And now it includes undercutting energy/moisture for the start of Feb. By the way, the 0Z EPS also had something then though not as robust. So, perhaps people should forget about what has occurred to this point and think ahead. Not much chance of that, but why not try? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 EPS is plenty active days 10-15, the lack of blocking sticks out like a sore thumb though, the +PNA/-EPO I guess gives us a chance, if we had a -AO it would be a great chance. Otherwise I think it's more of the same we have been through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ok, Mack, the Webber/Mack endorsed Fab Feb start. Normally, a look like this would get the forum pretty dern excited. It really is a very nice look to the EPS, which if anything has averaged warm biased. And now it includes undercutting energy/moisture for the start of Feb. By the way, the 0Z EPS also had something then though not as robust. So, perhaps people should forget about what has occurred to this point and think ahead. Not much chance of that, but why not try? Thanks! I even made it my avatar a few days ago!And it was just the op run, but looked nice! Now it's only about 11 days out, and I think Euro has something around then also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is a good look on the EPS, like Larry was saying. I can't see past D10, but there's very nice ridge placement on the west coast with a flow out of the arctic. And there's a very nice split flow pattern showing up. There's also some ridging over Greenland. It's probably transient though. Anyway, I'd take this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man, it's always day 10+. Just like the past 2 months. In fact, here is the amazing next 10 days per 18z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is a good look on the EPS, like Larry was saying. I can't see past D10, but there's very nice ridge placement on the west coast with a flow out of the arctic. And there's a very nice split flow pattern showing up. There's also some ridging over Greenland. It's probably transient though. Anyway, I'd take this look. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png Nice post, could produce. The EPS has been really struggling though, just look at what it had for this Sat from 240 hours out compared to what it's predicting now at 96 hours. It's been doing this all winter, day 10+ it will show blocking or a nice pattern but only to fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Going back and re-visiting the analogs for this winter. We (RDU) have had 15 winters that were ENSO+ and PDO+, only 1 of those 15 was a skunk (2005). 2 others were below 3" (1970 and 1998). 1970 was drier than avg which I assume contributed to below avg snowfall as it had a good look and 1998 was the super nino, although we still got some snow. The other 12 winters avg about 10" a season. So with that said the closet match to this winter so far is 2005, the skunk, and it's lining up perfectly to what we have seen and our seeing. Curious to see what the solar was in 2005 compared to this winter. QBO was neutral in 2005, nothing like the -QBO we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2005 did finally get a solid -AO/-NAO from end of Feb to end of March, and what do you know, a couple of nice winter storms for western NC. That's to late for us non-mountain folks, but hopefully gives some hope for a turnaround for our friends in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Pack, the winter of 2004-2005 also had a perfect track Miller A go awry. At least that wasn't in January, though. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050228/ EDIT: You beat me to it. The February storm was a massive bust. Heavy Snow Warnings up and we ended up getting a half inch of sleet. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man, it's always day 10+. Just like the past 2 months. In fact, here is the amazing next 10 days per 18z GFS! In the winter I guess we wish our lives away 10 days at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Pack, the winter of 2004-2005 also had a perfect track Miller A go awry. At least that wasn't in January, though.http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050228/ EDIT: You beat me to it. The February storm was a massive bust. Heavy Snow Warnings up and we ended up getting a half inch of sleet. SMH. You read the bottom....LOL Final Thoughts 1. The 2/28/05 minor snow event in the Triad area with heavy snow located just to the north and west typified much of the 2004-2005 winter season. 2. While several factors accounted for the well below snowfall totals in Central North Carolina this past winter, a lack of low level cold air support from high pressure located to the north was prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2005 did finally get a solid -AO/-NAO from end of Feb to end of March, and what do you know, a couple of nice winter storms for western NC. That's to late for us non-mountain folks, but hopefully gives some hope for a turnaround for our friends in the hills. we also had that amazing ice/sleet storm in January 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man, it's always day 10+. Just like the past 2 months. In fact, here is the amazing next 10 days per 18z GFS! As stated, 10+ days away, but the EPS mean at 12Z has snow throughout the SE all the way down to nearly FL for days 11-15. Maybe this time we reel it in from 10+ days out. Would certainly brighten spirits of many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You read the bottom....LOL Final Thoughts 1. The 2/28/05 minor snow event in the Triad area with heavy snow located just to the north and west typified much of the 2004-2005 winter season. 2. While several factors accounted for the well below snowfall totals in Central North Carolina this past winter, a lack of low level cold air support from high pressure located to the north was prominent. LOL, yep. Sounds like this weekend's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOL, yep. Sounds like this weekend's storm! Atleast people can't accuse me of being negative for no reason, plenty of reason for pessimism about this winter. It's only snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Atleast people can't accuse me of being negative for no reason, plenty of reason for pessimism about this winter. It's only snow. We won't get shutout. Even all those horrendous winters featured something. We're gonna get it in Fab Feb, my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You know, even 2004-2005 blows this winter out of the water so far. It was a bad winter, but it had quite a few winter weather events for NC up to this point. We pretty much have zero aside from that "winter storm" that dropped a trace of ZR for most of us... 2004-2005 had... (rockin' winter east of I-95...)... "RALEIGH SNOWJAM" And, then, of course, the two Pack already noted in late February/mid-March. Meanwhile, in 2014-2015...... This is THE HIGHLIGHT of the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You know, even 2004-2005 blows this winter out of the water so far. It was a bad winter, but it had quite a few winter weather events for NC up to this point. We pretty much have zero aside from that "winter storm" that dropped a trace of ZR for most of us... 2004-2005 had... (rockin' winter east of I-95...)... "RALEIGH SNOWJAM" And, then, of course, the two Pack already noted in late February/mid-March. Meanwhile, in 2015...... This is THE HIGHLIGHT of the winter so far. Was going to point out that this winter is going to be worse than 04-05 as we had plenty of chances that winter, just more bad luck. But let's rub salt in the wound Place east and west of us did just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Was going to point out that this winter is going to be worse than 04-05 as we had plenty of chances that winter, just more bad luck. But let's rub salt in the wound Place east and west of us did just fine. On the bright side, we're still besting 2011-2012, which had a grand total of nada at this point. Figure we'll score in Fab Feb like in that winter... I don't really remember the setup for this one. I'll have to go back and look. Seems to have just been one of those perfect timing events in a bad overall pattern, but I'll have to look it up. (STORM THREAD: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32679-feb-18-20-2012-discoanalysis/) (BTW, OFFICE SPACE ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hey everyone, I know we all want some wintry weather, but you have to admit, the weather has been very nice lately. Lets talk about the storm coming out of the western gulf of mexico for Thur thru Sat. My thoughts and my forecast and we talk super clipper as well. Check out the video for more. Thanks for watching and sharing and liking my page. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So say we get a monster storm some time in Feb with widespread 12-24" amts and that was the end of it... would that "save" the season? Would all that griping be for naught? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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