Met1985 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 First run of the weeklies that had wall to wall cold.Thanks for sharing pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 First run of the weeklies that had wall to wall cold.Pack, Are you looking at the right thing? Mine don't have anything close to wall to wall cold. I see a little warmer than normal to near normal week 1, cold week 2, a little warmer than normal week 3, and near normal week 4 for the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Pack, Are you looking at the right thing? Mine don't have anything close to wall to wall cold. I see warmth week 1, cold week 2, a little warmer than normal week 3, and near normal week 4 for the SE US. Do you have central US colder? I am applying a little bias, but central US is cold, weeklies have been to far west with cold this winter.And I am only looking at weeks 3-4 as the week 1-2 are the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Do you have central US colder? I am applying a little bias, but central US is cold, weeklies have been to far west with cold this winter. And I am only looking at weeks 3-4 as the week 1-2 are the EPS. In week 3, the central US is a little warmer than normal while week 4 is cold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 First run of the weeklies that had wall to wall cold. Talk about going from excited to depressed. Just not seeing it on the weeklies. Looks more warm than cold to me, even factoring in a "bias shift" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 In week 3, the central US is a little warmer than normal while week 4 is cold there. About what I have, days 20-32 was very cold for central US. Days 16-19 were warm and if you go with the 12z EPS run itself weeks 1-2 are cold in the east. That's 3 warm days out of 32. Great run, if you believe in the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Have the weeklies been right this winter? or even close? Can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Have the weeklies been right this winter? or even close? Can't remember. Its consistently showed no blocking, so that's been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 About what I have, days 20-32 was very cold for central US. Days 16-19 were warm and if you go with the 12z EPS run itself weeks 1-2 are cold in the east. That's 3 warm days out of 32. Great run, if you believe in the weeklies. Pack, Interesting way of looking at them. Are you a Norman Vincent Peale fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its consistently showed no blocking, so that's been right. At least they consistent with something! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its consistently showed no blocking, so that's been right.True but we have not been as warm as they have been showing also. Just like the fist of January when they are showing warm but we were pretty cold from the arctic front. Also looking at the weeklies it does have some blocking in the epo region also. The weeklies are all about what the H5 looks like in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 True but we have not been as warm as they have been showing also. Just like the fist of January when they are showing warm but we were pretty cold from the arctic front. Also looking at the weeklies it does have some blocking in the epo region also. The weeklies are all about what the H5 looks like in my opinion. Agreed and agreed, which why I liked this run. The central was cold, they have been to far west with cold all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Agreed and agreed, which why I liked this run. The central was cold, they have been to far west with cold all winter. Yeah I agree pack. Anything to show cold more east than west is a good thing. Hopefully that intales a west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Favor time, if y'all don't mind. I just uploaded a new video with my thoughts on what may or may not happen with this storm. I know many of y'all like my Facebook page, and I can't thank y'all enough. IF not, please do. So we don't clutter up this thread, please check out the video and let me know what y'all think, but I want to know what y'all think as well. Drop a comment and let me know how I can improve the videos or whatever. Plus vote on what y'all think happens and we will see who gets the closest when done. Should be fun! Thanks everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro control 15 day snow totals! Per WxBell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Might as well look at the LR a little bit! Telecons: MJO: CFS for Feb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Might as well look at the LR a little bit! Telecons: ao_sprd2.gif MJO: NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif CFS for Feb: CFSv2_NaT2m_20150120_201502.gif Which haven't worked out to well this winter, So far! Still got a good while to go for some snow... Mid March!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Might as well look at the LR a little bit! Telecons: ao_sprd2.gif MJO: NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif CFS for Feb: CFSv2_NaT2m_20150120_201502.gif Nice! People talk about how cold it's been for us in Jan, it really hasn't. The EPS has us above avg 2m temps until Jan 30th, the GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month. We are going to finish Jan above average for temps...got to love weenie roasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Roasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Roasting? gefs_t2m_mean_noram_d5_10.png gefs_t2m_mean_noram_d7_14.png gefs_t2m_mean_noram_d8_16.png So you agree.. as I said the GEFS has us roasting the next week or so, I posted the pic, your pic's just confirm what I said below. The EPS has 2m's warm through Jan 30th. "GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month" This looks lovely, nice snowy pattern on the 12z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So you agree.. as I said the GEFS has us roasting the next week or so, I posted the pic, your pic's just confirm what I said below. The EPS has 2m's warm through Jan 30th. "GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month" This looks lovely, nice snowy pattern on the 12z GEFS... I consider temperatures ~5F above normal or so "seasonable" or "mild" @ best, if you somehow think that's roasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Snow starts roasting at 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I consider temperatures ~5F above normal or so "seasonable" or "mild" @ best, if you somehow think that's roasting... Well we are definitely going to finish the winter seasonable. As you were right, I thought we would be +2 to +3F for temps about now, looks like are right at neutral, or seasonable. Going to take a lot for this winter (DJF) to finish cold (-6F or below). Essentially would take us going the next 38 days or so at -15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well we are definitely going to finish the winter seasonable. As you were right, I thought we would be +2 to +3F for temps about now, looks like are right at neutral, or seasonable. Going to take a lot for this winter (DJF) to finish cold (-6F or below). Essentially would take us going the next 38 days or so at -15F. That ship has sailed. It does look like we'll have some periods below normal, but it looks more like the dry-type below normal. Euro goes NW flow post-clipper. The GEFS map you posted in jest shows a good pattern. But it's way out there, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well we are definitely going to finish the winter seasonable. As you were right, I thought we would be +2 to +3F for temps about now, looks like are right at neutral, or seasonable. Going to take a lot for this winter (DJF) to finish cold (-6F or below). Essentially would take us going the next 38 days or so at -15F. In my 15+ years in the profession, I have never heard +5F above normal termed "seasonable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 In my 15+ years in the profession, I have never heard +5F above normal termed "seasonable". LOL...Me neither...although torch may not be the best wording either. To avoid the argument will just call it above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So you agree.. as I said the GEFS has us roasting the next week or so, I posted the pic, your pic's just confirm what I said below. The EPS has 2m's warm through Jan 30th. "GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month" This looks lovely, nice snowy pattern on the 12z GEFS... I just don't see how below normal anomalies are a torch??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I just don't see how below normal anomalies are a torch??? You guys are talking about 2 different time periods. 0-5 days vs 5-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I just don't see how below normal anomalies are a torch??? HUH...You posted day 5-10 anomalies that are below normal. I posted days 1-5 that were above normal. Why is this difficult. Let me spell it out... For the SE: GEFS Days 1-5 are above normal, that takes us to Jan 25th. GEFS days 6-10 are below normal, that takes us to end of the month. 0z EPS has 2m's above normal through Jan 30th I am guessing that Jan finishes above normal for the month for the SE. That you can disagree with but we wont know until Jan 31st at midnight EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 My bad... I missed the "week" part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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