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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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First run of the weeklies that had wall to wall cold.

Pack,

Are you looking at the right thing? Mine don't have anything close to wall to wall cold. I see a little warmer than normal to near normal week 1, cold week 2, a little warmer than normal week 3, and near normal week 4 for the SE US.

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Pack,

Are you looking at the right thing? Mine don't have anything close to wall to wall cold. I see warmth week 1, cold week 2, a little warmer than normal week 3, and near normal week 4 for the SE US.

Do you have central US colder? I am applying a little bias, but central US is cold, weeklies have been to far west with cold this winter.

And I am only looking at weeks 3-4 as the week 1-2 are the EPS.

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Do you have central US colder? I am applying a little bias, but central US is cold, weeklies have been to far west with cold this winter.

And I am only looking at weeks 3-4 as the week 1-2 are the EPS.

In week 3, the central US is a little warmer than normal while week 4 is cold there.

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In week 3, the central US is a little warmer than normal while week 4 is cold there.

About what I have, days 20-32 was very cold for central US. Days 16-19 were warm and if you go with the 12z EPS run itself weeks 1-2 are cold in the east. That's 3 warm days out of 32. Great run, if you believe in the weeklies.

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About what I have, days 20-32 was very cold for central US. Days 16-19 were warm and if you go with the 12z EPS run itself weeks 1-2 are cold in the east. That's 3 warm days out of 32. Great run, if you believe in the weeklies.

Pack,

Interesting way of looking at them. Are you a Norman Vincent Peale fan? ;)

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Its consistently showed no blocking, so that's been right.

True but we have not been as warm as they have been showing also. Just like the fist of January when they are showing warm but we were pretty cold from the arctic front. Also looking at the weeklies it does have some blocking in the epo region also. The weeklies are all about what the H5 looks like in my opinion.
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True but we have not been as warm as they have been showing also. Just like the fist of January when they are showing warm but we were pretty cold from the arctic front. Also looking at the weeklies it does have some blocking in the epo region also. The weeklies are all about what the H5 looks like in my opinion.

Agreed and agreed, which why I liked this run. The central was cold, they have been to far west with cold all winter.

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Favor time, if y'all don't mind.  I just uploaded a new video with my thoughts on what may or may not happen with this storm.  I know many of y'all like my Facebook page, and I can't thank y'all enough.  IF not, please do.  :) So we don't clutter up this thread, please check out the video and let me know what y'all think, but I want to know what y'all think as well.  Drop a comment and let me know how I can improve the videos or whatever.  Plus vote on what y'all think happens and we will see who gets the closest when done.  Should be fun!  Thanks everyone!  -Chris   

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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Might as well look at the LR a little bit!

 

Telecons:

 

attachicon.gifao_sprd2.gif

 

MJO:

 

attachicon.gifNCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

CFS for Feb:

 

attachicon.gifCFSv2_NaT2m_20150120_201502.gif

 

Nice!  People talk about how cold it's been for us in Jan, it really hasn't.  The EPS has us above avg 2m temps until Jan 30th, the GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month.  We are going to finish Jan above average for temps...got to love weenie roasting.

post-2311-0-07857800-1421774368_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-99878300-1421774369_thumb.pn

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So you agree.. as I said the GEFS has us roasting the next week or so, I posted the pic, your pic's just confirm what I said below.  The EPS has 2m's warm through Jan 30th.

 

"GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month"

 

This looks lovely, nice snowy pattern on the 12z GEFS...

post-2311-0-34118700-1421775358_thumb.pn

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So you agree.. as I said the GEFS has us roasting the next week or so, I posted the pic, your pic's just confirm what I said below.  The EPS has 2m's warm through Jan 30th.

 

"GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month"

 

This looks lovely, nice snowy pattern on the 12z GEFS...

 

I consider temperatures ~5F above normal or so "seasonable" or "mild" @ best, if you somehow think that's roasting...

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I consider temperatures ~5F above normal or so "seasonable" or "mild" @ best, if you somehow think that's roasting...

 

Well we are definitely going to finish the winter seasonable.  As you were right, I thought we would be +2 to +3F for temps about now, looks like are right at neutral, or seasonable.  Going to take a lot for this winter (DJF) to finish cold (-6F or below).  Essentially would take us going the next 38 days or so at -15F.

post-2311-0-20601400-1421780035_thumb.pn

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Well we are definitely going to finish the winter seasonable.  As you were right, I thought we would be +2 to +3F for temps about now, looks like are right at neutral, or seasonable.  Going to take a lot for this winter (DJF) to finish cold (-6F or below).  Essentially would take us going the next 38 days or so at -15F.

 

That ship has sailed.  It does look like we'll have some periods below normal, but it looks more like the dry-type below normal.  Euro goes NW flow post-clipper.  The GEFS map you posted in jest shows a good pattern.  But it's way out there, as usual.

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Well we are definitely going to finish the winter seasonable.  As you were right, I thought we would be +2 to +3F for temps about now, looks like are right at neutral, or seasonable.  Going to take a lot for this winter (DJF) to finish cold (-6F or below).  Essentially would take us going the next 38 days or so at -15F.

 

In my 15+ years in the profession, I have never heard +5F above normal termed "seasonable". 

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So you agree.. as I said the GEFS has us roasting the next week or so, I posted the pic, your pic's just confirm what I said below.  The EPS has 2m's warm through Jan 30th.

 

"GEFS has us roasting for the next week or so but does cool us off the last few days of the month"

 

This looks lovely, nice snowy pattern on the 12z GEFS...

I just don't see how below normal anomalies are a torch???

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I just don't see how below normal anomalies are a torch???

HUH...You posted day 5-10 anomalies that are below normal. I posted days 1-5 that were above normal. Why is this difficult. Let me spell it out...

For the SE:

GEFS Days 1-5 are above normal, that takes us to Jan 25th.

GEFS days 6-10 are below normal, that takes us to end of the month.

0z EPS has 2m's above normal through Jan 30th

I am guessing that Jan finishes above normal for the month for the SE. That you can disagree with but we wont know until Jan 31st at midnight EST.

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