Webberweather53 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I don't disagree, but I think his argument is so far the sensible weather has either been pretty cold and dry, or just warm enough to keep most on this board at zero for winter weather. It actually hasn't been that cold or dry. In fact, temperatures thus far this winter have been fairly close to normal in the southeastern US, and outside the Tennessee Valley, it's been wetter than normal (@ least for the last 60 days) in the Carolinas & Georgia, a precipitation distribution that's not uncommon for El Ninos... US temperature anomaly December 1st-January 14th Total Precipitable Water anomaly since December 1st AHPS Precipitation Anomaly (inches) over the last 60 days (late Nov-Present) NDJ US Precipitation Standardized Anomalies, Warm ENSO Neutral-Weak El Nino BTW, the precipitation correlation to the negative EPO/WPO phases is positive (wet) across much of the US... The southwestern US in particular exemplifies the most significant correspondence, which makes sense given that Rex Blocking is commonly observed on the US west coast & over the Northeastern Pacific as the southern branch of the jet slides cut-off ULLs underneath the mid-upper level anomalous high pressure centers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It actually hasn't been that cold or dry. In fact, temperatures thus far this winter have been fairly close to normal in the southeastern US, and outside the Tennessee Valley, it's been wetter than normal (@ least for the last 60 days) in the Carolinas & Georgia, a precipitation distribution that's not uncommon for El Ninos... US temperature anomaly December 1st-January 14th Total Precipitable Water anomaly since December 1st AHPS Precipitation Anomaly (inches) over the last 60 days (late Nov-Present) NDJ US Precipitation Standardized Anomalies, Warm ENSO Neutral-Weak El Nino BTW, the precipitation correlation to the negative EPO/WPO phases is positive (wet) across much of the US... The southwestern US in particular exemplifies the most significant correspondence, which makes sense given that Rex Blocking is commonly observed on the US west coast & over the Northeastern Pacific as the southern branch of the jet slides cut-off ULLs underneath the mid-upper level anomalous high pressure centers... Cleaned my gutters today - I'll vouch for wet .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some good composites for late Jan/Early Feb from Cosgrove today: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/mn73n2njUbQ Medium-range write-up: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/7vgZkWdEI4Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We really need the atlantic to cooperate (50/50 low/greenland blocking). It's hard to get phasing in this pattern. The waves in the PJ are moving too fast along the midwest and northern tier. It's better than early January, but still not quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We really need the atlantic to cooperate (50/50 low/greenland blocking). It's hard to get phasing in this pattern. The waves in the PJ are moving too fast along the midwest and northern tier. It's better than early January, but still not quite there yet. The Atlantic has been terrible for the past couple of years. It's been like pulling teeth to see a -NAO. Yes, there are ways around it to attain a good snow storm but I'll take my chances on getting a good east-based -NAO block in place to slow down the progression of these waves. For now, we're relying on in-situ 50/50 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Here's a good example (xmas storm from 2010). Notice the large cutoff east of Maine in the atlantic. When that's there, it means higher heights are north over greenland. any wave that comes along in the northern stream will be forced to slow down, head further south, and potentially cutoff or phase. right now we have nothing really similar to that. click on the link below to get a good evolution of the phasing: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1225.php I'm thinking our best chance this winter, if the Atlantic never cooperates, would be to have a situation similar to Dec 2002 or other situations like that. basically just a CAD setup w/ a large stj cutoff/system derived from the el-nino pattern. that's why i've liked ice so far this winter. it's a shame earlier this week wasn't a bigger system as the CAD was in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yep The Atlantic has been terrible for the past couple of years. It's been like pulling teeth to see a -NAO. Yes, there are ways around it to attain a good snow storm but I'll take my chances on getting a good east-based -NAO block in place to slow down the progression of these waves. For now, we're relying on in-situ 50/50 lows. BTW the EURO ENS looking really cold through the end of the run, but not stormy. could be a good pattern for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Bastardi has been poo-pooing the NAO as not having much effect until mid Feb-March when it becomes more dominant. What he fails to mention though is that applies primarily to the MA and NE where cold air hangs around long enough for them to get snow late into March and even early April. Down here, it is highly unlikey to have much effect for snow after early March and a -NAO into Mar-April is generally worthless to us, unless you like cold rainy stretches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We really need the atlantic to cooperate (50/50 low/greenland blocking). It's hard to get phasing in this pattern. The waves in the PJ are moving too fast along the midwest and northern tier. It's better than early January, but still not quite there yet. So is that why this system end of the week has a slight chance? GFS shows a 980ish low sitting over Newfoundland during this time. Not ideal but if the timing is right. Sorry if this may belong in other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I moved this here because more fantasy range and too far out for pbp. I also don't want to clutter the other thread, which is now concentrating on 1/23. Not to change the very important "1/23 potential" topic, but look out for early next week per the 12Z Euro. This could also get interesting. Let's see though this would probably favor more northern areas (not a Miller). Seems to be mainly a NW flow mountain potential, if anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 So is that why this system end of the week has a slight chance? GFS shows a 980ish low sitting over Newfoundland during this time. Not ideal but if the timing is right. Sorry if this may belong in other thread It certainly decreases the chances for a large system. The models could be wrong and trend in our favor w/ regards to the 50/50 low. The trend this year hasn't been a good one so far on that however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro @240 actually looks like a descent pattern. Real cold air to work with though it might end up suppressing everything. Gotta see if it sticks with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Useful and interesting precipitation type simulator http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxfest/PcpnType/pcpn.html Set the air temperature (green line) and wet bulb temperature (yellow line) by dragging the points to different locations to learn what type of precipitation will fall to the ground. The simulation starts when you release the mouse button. The simulator will also display dynamic cooling and impacts of saturation by setting a delta between the actual and dew point temperature at ground level. And you can simulate the dreaded warm nose with 33 and rain! (mods move to best place to house save this as needed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's pretty cool. Thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Greg Fishel says no: https://www.facebook.com/WRALGregFishel/posts/10155151046590724. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Greg Fishel says no: https://www.facebook.com/WRALGregFishel/posts/10155151046590724.Brick Tamland says yes, through Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Greg Fishel says no: https://www.facebook.com/WRALGregFishel/posts/10155151046590724. So we are gonna skunk ? Greg Fishel: Just a caution to you winter weather enthusiasts out there. There's a lot of traffic on the Internet currently that would make you believe a brutal stretch of winter weather is inevitable over the next couple of weeks. While that is not impossible, there is little indication of any severe cold or significant snow in central North Carolina during that period of time. And for those that worship teleconnections, none of that looks good either. And no I'm not looking at deterministic models, but I am looking at the premier ensemble forecast system in the world, the European, which has 51 members, and it is underwhelming. Could we pull a rabbit out of our hat? Of course, but don't be surprised if we enter February with little or nothing to show for the Winter of '14-'15. I'm torn here because I love snow but don't like to be wrong either smile emoticon We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So hours 240+ aren't looking cold and snowy anymore , I thought it was a lock!? Fab Feb in jeopardy!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Greg Fishel says no: https://www.facebook.com/WRALGregFishel/posts/10155151046590724. So we are gonna skunk ? Greg Fishel: Just a caution to you winter weather enthusiasts out there. There's a lot of traffic on the Internet currently that would make you believe a brutal stretch of winter weather is inevitable over the next couple of weeks. While that is not impossible, there is little indication of any severe cold or significant snow in central North Carolina during that period of time. And for those that worship teleconnections, none of that looks good either. And no I'm not looking at deterministic models, but I am looking at the premier ensemble forecast system in the world, the European, which has 51 members, and it is underwhelming. Could we pull a rabbit out of our hat? Of course, but don't be surprised if we enter February with little or nothing to show for the Winter of '14-'15. I'm torn here because I love snow but don't like to be wrong either smile emoticon We'll see! I don't know what European ensemble he's looking at... last 3 00z Euro ensemble runs (keeping track of this per Cold Rain's request) 12z Ensemble run CFSv2 Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus · 39m 39 minutes ago Looks like we’re gonna do this thing. Very good odds of prolonged cold snap Jan 25-31 and beyond, via @CIPSAnalogs. Yep definitely looks like we're pulling a rabbit out of our hat. Earth to Greg....greg...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Huge -soi burst going on! It's down to -44 td his morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Cleaned my gutters today - I'll vouch for wet .... Tell me about it... AHPS shows me at 150% or more of average rainfall in the last 60 and 30 days (see pic), and about 200%+ in the last 7. Really sucks since I'm trying to pour a slab and it won't stop raining long enough for me to finish the prep work As soon as it gets dry enough, it rains again. Can't pour concrete on ground that audibly squishes when you walk on it... If I could just have two solid weeks of warm and dry, it can snow the rest of the winter--I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't know what European ensemble he's looking at... last 3 00z Euro ensemble runs (keeping track of this per Cold Rain's request) 12z Ensemble run CFSv2 Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus · 39m 39 minutes ago Looks like we’re gonna do this thing. Very good odds of prolonged cold snap Jan 25-31 and beyond, via @CIPSAnalogs. Yep definitely looks like we're pulling a rabbit out of our hat. Earth to Greg....greg...? He's not really going out on that big a limb, yeah we might have another cold shot but I wouldn't consider it severe (low of 10F). The EPO is going neutral to positive, not severly negative like the EPS was predicting it would. The pattern the EPS is showing is not a snowy pattern, unless we think we can score a clipper. The SOI going sharply negative is great to see but like Hky said yesterday we need blocking with the atlantic in our favor. The AO will dip for a couple of days but then goes right back to +2, NAO is the same with the dip and the rise. Edit: This is all per the EPS, which has been bouncing around lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Upcoming pattern is usually only good for clippers, but sometimes we can score a decent event if a vortex can make it down far enough south, I believe we scored in NC January 2009 in a similar pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 While I'm optimistic it's very worrisome that yesterday the models moved away from big time cold and good teleconnections. I said in the storm thread we have to go with what this winter has given us so far. We've seen beautiful patterns in the LR on the models before only for it to breakdown and give us more of the same. I do think we can cash in with one of these quick cold snaps but I'm not sure we end up with the pattern everyone is hoping for. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 While I'm optimistic it's very worrisome that yesterday the models moved away from big time cold and good teleconnections. I said in the storm thread we have to go with what this winter has given us so far. We've seen beautiful patterns in the LR on the models before only for it to breakdown and give us more of the same. I do think we can cash in with one of these quick cold snaps but I'm not sure we end up with the pattern everyone is hoping for. We shall see. Didn't you tell me last week not to panic over the LR models, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Didn't you tell me last week not to panic over the LR models, LOL.I think you can't lean too far either way. Don't believe a torch and don't believe a tundra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think you can't lean too far either way. Don't believe a torch and don't believe a tundra. Im starting to believe that as well, Bud....The EURO was showing a plummeting AO and even somewhat a -NAO *barely* and a very nice shot after shot of cold...now, not as much. Yes still some nice signs of cold out there, but the signs are worrisome. This winter might be on life support if your expecting a nice sustained cold shot. What a BUST of a winter for many...can't deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 He's not really going out on that big a limb, yeah we might have another cold shot but I wouldn't consider it severe (low of 10F). The EPO is going neutral to positive, not severly negative like the EPS was predicting it would. The pattern the EPS is showing is not a snowy pattern, unless we think we can score a clipper. The SOI going sharply negative is great to see but like Hky said yesterday we need blocking with the atlantic in our favor. The AO will dip for a couple of days but then goes right back to +2, NAO is the same with the dip and the rise. Edit: This is all per the EPS, which has been bouncing around lately. Yeah he's going out on a small limb, I agree. I got carried away and didn't realize his wording of "severe cold" and "significant snow" which in that context, the next two weeks, I may agree. We'll have a cold shot but without a tall enough ridge (in this case probably a -EPO/+PNA) we aren't going to get a deep 10F cold type of shot but I do think the ensembles are supporting a cold shot, maybe near 20 for Central NC. A high not escaping 25F inside 200hrs for RDU is a cold shot, but not significant I guess. The last cold shot over performed if I recall for our area, so teens wouldn't surprise me to end the month. The latest Euro run kept a +PNA for central NC, and a -EPO for Jan 26+...with a PV SW of the lakes rounding the turnpike it would be something to watch on future runs to see if we can squeeze out a real cold shot, if that's what folks want. I like storms and normal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GSP thoughts on the potential "bomb" : "AT THIS TIME...A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY...RETREATING TO THEMOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EVENING.WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY...ONLY SMALL POPS AND LIGHT QPF WILL BECARRIED...WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS." GSP thoughts on the clipper: "ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE SPREADS EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...AND WITH THICKNESSVALUES RATHER LOW...SNOW IS SUPPORTED IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. ASPRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THERE ISA SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND THE NCPIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN DURING THEDAY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE WEST. THE FRONTWOULD CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...ENDING PRECIPITATION EAST OFTHE MOUNTAINS. A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT WOULD THEN FOLLOW IN THEMOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED IN THE TIMING AND DURATION OFTHIS EVENT...AS WELL AS ANY RAIN OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULDRESULT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 First run of the weeklies that had wall to wall cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.