tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lol....lets put it this way, the -AO on the OP Euro after 1/21 was dipping to -4 and the 00z run has it at +0.5 or so. Basically the same with the NAO and PNA....not a good time to look at the indices this morning. The biggest road block in my mind is thinking about which is more believable? Unfortunately, it's the positive look, not the negative. Hoping we can keep the AO and NAO around neutral or no higher than +.5 That would likely be a big improvement going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The H5 pattern modeled at D10? As was discussed at another place this morning the northern hemisphere pattern if correct would argue against what the numerical AO number is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As was discussed at another place this morning the northern hemisphere pattern if correct would argue against what the numerical AO number is showing Yeah, I read it, and I agree with you...if it turns out as modeled, we'll be ok. It's still way out there though, so you have to be somewhat skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah, I read it, and I agree with you...if it turns out as modeled, we'll be ok. It's still way out there though, so you have to be somewhat skeptical. Oh I'm very skeptical no doubt . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah, I read it, and I agree with you...if it turns out as modeled, we'll be ok. It's still way out there though, so you have to be somewhat skeptical. The CPC charts are pretty much bank when you get clusters. We have clusters pointing to crap teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah, I read it, and I agree with you...if it turns out as modeled, we'll be ok. It's still way out there though, so you have to be somewhat skeptical. Good luck with that It's simply amazing how just a small part of the puzzle being slightly "off" to what "should" happen, can send the models into such mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Good luck with that It's simply amazing how just a small part of the puzzle being slightly "off" to what "should" happen, can send the models into such mayhem It's pretty amazing how hard it is to get a cold pattern to show up inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 While we're on the subject of NAO, etc. I'm curious, is it possible to get the current numerical value of this and other Teleconnections? If I look here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml There's a graph of the current values through this month, but if you look at the tabular data, it's only available through 12/31/2014 (I assume it's one month lagging). Is there a way to get more up to date values directly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lots of cold air coming into the Conus from Canada @240 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 While we're on the subject of NAO, etc. I'm curious, is it possible to get the current numerical value of this and other Teleconnections? If I look here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml There's a graph of the current values through this month, but if you look at the tabular data, it's only available through 12/31/2014 (I assume it's one month lagging). Is there a way to get more up to date values directly? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lots of cold air coming into the Conus from Canada @240 on the Euro.Take a look at the 5 day day10-15 EPS mean at 500mb height anomaly and 850mb (temp anomaly)...there's no denying the cold is coming. I just hope it's not too suppressive. I wouldn't be surprised with an end of the month deep cold shot with no storms as cold as the ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Take a look at the 5 day day10-15 EPS mean at 500mb height anomaly and 850mb (temp anomaly)...there's no denying the cold is coming. I just hope it's not too suppressive. I wouldn't be surprised with an end of the month deep cold shot with no storms as cold as the ensembles look. Let's start tracking this quantifiably. If anybody can post a DX ENS map (maybe D10 or whenever the cold starts to make it's way in), please post it. Then, tomorrow, reply to it with a DX-1 map from the same suite. The next day, post DX-2 and so on. Let's see if the cold can really ever make it into the D-5 window. I'm serious. Because every day there is a post about the D10-D15 Ensembles or Control or something that shows how frigid it is going to be. It'll be fun to see how long it takes to actually get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Let's start tracking this quantifiably. If anybody can post a DX ENS map (maybe D10 or whenever the cold starts to make it's way in), please post it. Then, tomorrow, reply to it with a DX-1 map from the same suite. The next day, post DX-2 and so on. Let's see if the cold can really ever make it into the D-5 window. I'm serious. Because every day there is a post about the D10-D15 Ensembles or Control or something that shows how frigid it is going to be. It'll be fun to see how long it takes to actually get cold.Good idea. Id say posting the 5 day mean for that exact time period starting today would be a decent "study" if you will. Single day images will have more variability as its following a finite 6-24 hour time period depending on access and not 5 days worth of averages temperatures. But I'd be glad to keep up with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Good idea. Id say posting the 5 day mean for that exact time period starting today would be a decent "study" if you will. Single day images will have more variability as its following a finite 6-24 hour time period depending on access and not 5 days worth of averages temperatures. But I'd be glad to keep up with it! Thanks Jon! That would be awesome. We can see if it's actually moving forward or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Let's start tracking this quantifiably. If anybody can post a DX ENS map (maybe D10 or whenever the cold starts to make it's way in), please post it. Then, tomorrow, reply to it with a DX-1 map from the same suite. The next day, post DX-2 and so on. Let's see if the cold can really ever make it into the D-5 window. I'm serious. Because every day there is a post about the D10-D15 Ensembles or Control or something that shows how frigid it is going to be. It'll be fun to see how long it takes to actually get cold. Interestingly enough this was the Jan 1 edition of the Euro Ens for Jan 16th....not too terribly far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Take a look at the 5 day day10-15 EPS mean at 500mb height anomaly and 850mb (temp anomaly)...there's no denying the cold is coming. I just hope it's not too suppressive. I wouldn't be surprised with an end of the month deep cold shot with no storms as cold as the ensembles look. Post today's 10-15 :-) Someone cue the Charlie Brown-Lucy football vid. This is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Interestingly enough this was the Jan 1 edition of the Euro Ens for Jan 16th....not too terribly far off. Post the Jan 11th 0z run, is it that different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Post today's 10-15 :-) Someone cue the Charlie Brown-Lucy football vid. This is sad. It's not the eps has been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Post the Jan 11th 0z run, is it that different? Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The problem this month has not really been the lack of cold. It's the fact the southern stream has been anemic and the PAC jet too active. You can't assume the ENS showing a strong cold pattern and -AO will solve our issues this winter in terms of snow. It is helpful, but we need blocking and/or a timing event that brings light precip. The northern stream has been more active than a usual Nino year and clippers really won't cut it south of DCA. Big phasers have only shown up in models, not reality. For my money, I do not want strong suppression cold unless the EPO and PNA behaves. I might even prefer the transient "take my chances" type pattern over a PV blast. Most winter forecasts were based on the premise that the southern stream would be more enhanced than it has been. Without that, we get suppression with a strong -AO rather than true bonified snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 All new video is up, if y'all want to watch. I tried to come up with a catchy sentence, but couldn't lol Interesting weather ahead, but who does it effect. Do we see anything at all? Check out the video for more. Thank you everyone! I appreciate it. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 6z GFS looks cold in the LR. Day12: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150117+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model A little Banter Day 16 -- The four horsemen(H): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150117+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 6z GFS looks cold in the LR. Day12: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150117+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model A little Banter Day 16 -- The four horsemen(H): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150117+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=86 we need this cold air to arrive before the storm next weekend to hopefully start the parade of winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 we need this cold air to arrive before the storm next weekend to hopefully start the parade of winter storms. That would be nice. There's no guarantee that we'll get snow in the LR but it's really nice to see a pattern that has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 00z GFS and 6z both look awesome. 00z though was so cold we would probably get nothing but a clipper if were lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 we need this cold air to arrive before the storm next weekend to hopefully start the parade of winter storms. we have plenty of cold air next weekend, the storm is crushed and there is a slim chance of the storm even happening. Maybe the next one can amplify but it looks like the northern stream is going to dominate for awhile. So it looks like dry weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Just sneaking in a post today...can't even stay away for a day, sad. Anyway, when you see a jet like the 00z Euro is advertising, it's hard not to get excited for the potential. If you have access, loop through 192-240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 That was a cold run of the GEFS, nice -AO (ridge bridge). Curious if the telecon shows a -AO but it looked neg to me for bulk of run. Stout +PNA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Just sneaking in a post today...can't even stay away for a day, sad. Anyway, when you see a jet like the 00z Euro is advertising, it's hard not to get excited for the potential. If you have access, loop through 192-240. Jon, Thanks for posting a map. There are so many posts that just essentially say "the xxx to yyy' hours look good" / "the 12Z aaa to ccc hours look meh", with no data/backup or frame of reference; that leaves one wondering - in what way, for who, and often times - what model is even being referred to .... (???). Appreciate your diligence and thoroughness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Totally agree. Mine should have been in banter. Maybe there should be a thank you thread as well. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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