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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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Lol....lets put it this way, the -AO on the OP Euro after 1/21 was dipping to -4 and the 00z run has it at +0.5 or so. Basically the same with the NAO and PNA....not a good time to look at the indices this morning.

The biggest road block in my mind is thinking about which is more believable?  Unfortunately, it's the positive look, not the negative.

 

Hoping we can keep the AO and NAO around neutral or no higher than +.5  That would likely be a big improvement going forward.

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As was discussed at another place this morning the northern hemisphere pattern if correct would argue against what the numerical AO number is showing

 

Yeah, I read it, and I agree with you...if it turns out as modeled, we'll be ok.  It's still way out there though, so you have to be somewhat skeptical.

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Yeah, I read it, and I agree with you...if it turns out as modeled, we'll be ok.  It's still way out there though, so you have to be somewhat skeptical.

:lol:  Good luck with that    :P   

 

It's simply amazing how just a small part of the puzzle being slightly "off" to what "should" happen, can send the models into such mayhem   ;)  

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While we're on the subject of NAO, etc. I'm curious, is it possible to get the current numerical value of this and other Teleconnections? If I look here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

 

There's a graph of the current values through this month, but if you look at the tabular data, it's only available through 12/31/2014 (I assume it's one month lagging). Is there a way to get more up to date values directly?

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While we're on the subject of NAO, etc. I'm curious, is it possible to get the current numerical value of this and other Teleconnections? If I look here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

 

There's a graph of the current values through this month, but if you look at the tabular data, it's only available through 12/31/2014 (I assume it's one month lagging). Is there a way to get more up to date values directly?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

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Lots of cold air coming into the Conus from Canada @240 on the Euro.

Take a look at the 5 day day10-15 EPS mean at 500mb height anomaly and 850mb (temp anomaly)...there's no denying the cold is coming. I just hope it's not too suppressive. I wouldn't be surprised with an end of the month deep cold shot with no storms as cold as the ensembles look.
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Take a look at the 5 day day10-15 EPS mean at 500mb height anomaly and 850mb (temp anomaly)...there's no denying the cold is coming. I just hope it's not too suppressive. I wouldn't be surprised with an end of the month deep cold shot with no storms as cold as the ensembles look.

 

Let's start tracking this quantifiably.  If anybody can post a DX ENS map (maybe D10 or whenever the cold starts to make it's way in), please post it.  Then, tomorrow, reply to it with a DX-1 map from the same suite.  The next day, post DX-2 and so on.  Let's see if the cold can really ever make it into the D-5 window.  I'm serious.  Because every day there is a post about the D10-D15 Ensembles or Control or something that shows how frigid it is going to be.  It'll be fun to see how long it takes to actually get cold.

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Let's start tracking this quantifiably. If anybody can post a DX ENS map (maybe D10 or whenever the cold starts to make it's way in), please post it. Then, tomorrow, reply to it with a DX-1 map from the same suite. The next day, post DX-2 and so on. Let's see if the cold can really ever make it into the D-5 window. I'm serious. Because every day there is a post about the D10-D15 Ensembles or Control or something that shows how frigid it is going to be. It'll be fun to see how long it takes to actually get cold.

Good idea. Id say posting the 5 day mean for that exact time period starting today would be a decent "study" if you will. Single day images will have more variability as its following a finite 6-24 hour time period depending on access and not 5 days worth of averages temperatures. But I'd be glad to keep up with it!
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Good idea. Id say posting the 5 day mean for that exact time period starting today would be a decent "study" if you will. Single day images will have more variability as its following a finite 6-24 hour time period depending on access and not 5 days worth of averages temperatures. But I'd be glad to keep up with it!

 

 

Thanks Jon!  That would be awesome.  We can see if it's actually moving forward or not.

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Let's start tracking this quantifiably.  If anybody can post a DX ENS map (maybe D10 or whenever the cold starts to make it's way in), please post it.  Then, tomorrow, reply to it with a DX-1 map from the same suite.  The next day, post DX-2 and so on.  Let's see if the cold can really ever make it into the D-5 window.  I'm serious.  Because every day there is a post about the D10-D15 Ensembles or Control or something that shows how frigid it is going to be.  It'll be fun to see how long it takes to actually get cold.

 

Interestingly enough this was the Jan 1 edition of the Euro Ens for Jan 16th....not too terribly far off. 

 

rjuRwxP.png

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Take a look at the 5 day day10-15 EPS mean at 500mb height anomaly and 850mb (temp anomaly)...there's no denying the cold is coming. I just hope it's not too suppressive. I wouldn't be surprised with an end of the month deep cold shot with no storms as cold as the ensembles look.

Post today's 10-15 :-)

Someone cue the Charlie Brown-Lucy football vid.

This is sad.

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The problem this month has not really been the lack of cold.  It's the fact the southern stream has been anemic and the PAC jet too active. You can't assume the ENS showing a strong cold pattern and -AO will solve our issues this winter in terms of snow.  It is helpful, but we need blocking and/or a timing event that brings light precip.  The northern stream has been more active than a usual Nino year and clippers really won't cut it south of DCA.  Big phasers have only shown up in models, not reality.  

 

For my money, I do not want strong suppression cold unless the EPO and PNA behaves.  I might even prefer the transient "take my chances" type pattern over a PV blast.  Most winter forecasts were based on the premise that the southern stream would be more enhanced than it has been.  Without that, we get suppression with a strong -AO rather than true bonified snow events. 

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we need this cold air to arrive before the storm next weekend to hopefully start the parade of winter storms. :snowing:

we have plenty of cold air next weekend, the storm is crushed and there is a slim chance of the storm even happening. Maybe the next one can amplify but it looks like the northern stream is going to dominate for awhile. So it looks like dry weather next week.
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Just sneaking in a post today...can't even stay away for a day, sad. :lmao:

 

Anyway, when you see a jet like the 00z Euro is advertising, it's hard not to get excited for the potential. If you have access, loop through 192-240.

 

mjsg5Gm.png

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Just sneaking in a post today...can't even stay away for a day, sad. :lmao:

 

Anyway, when you see a jet like the 00z Euro is advertising, it's hard not to get excited for the potential. If you have access, loop through 192-240.

 

mjsg5Gm.png

 Jon,

 

Thanks for posting a map. There are so many posts that just essentially say "the xxx to yyy' hours look good" / "the 12Z aaa to ccc hours look meh", with no data/backup or frame of reference; that leaves one wondering - in what way, for who, and often times - what model is even being referred to .... (???).

 

Appreciate your diligence and thoroughness!

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