Wow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The pattern is looking awesome over the coming days. Don't count the Jan 24 system completely out simply because of last nights runs but, regardless, it is only the beginning of an active wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Disappointed in the overnight runs for the 23/24 system but it's still a ways out so there's still time. As mentioned I don't think a wound up cutting system is likely, considering how the EURO has overdone those systems repeatedly in the past. Also, we've got a +PNA/decent -NAO, and a decently low PV sitting up there so I don't think it cuts. The GFS solutions at this point seem more likely but I could be wrong. I bet the runs today more or less bring it back a bit. Below is the set up for the storm. Agree too on the long range. Looks great! Probably every index you want to see we have. Long, long range we lose the -NAO but that's way out there. Big tall western ridge and split flow continues on as far as the models can see, along with a east coast trough with WSW winds pretty much where we want them. Honestly if we don't cash in for SOMETHING we truly do suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS looks like another close call at the very least. Only out to 177 but you can see the pattern change is happening by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS leaves a ton of energy behind in CA, Euro brings it all out. GFS also flattens the ridge some where Euro keeps it nice and tall. The GFS ridge placement is better as the Euro is just on the coast. Hopefully these two models blend and we may have something. Edit: Looking at the 0z CMC it splits the difference with ridge placement and the SLP tracks right up I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The flatter the energy the better for this event, I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The flatter the energy the better for this event, I'd imagine. Go big or go home :-) I want the tall ridge which would give us a better chance at the bigger storm, but we are playing with fire with ridge placement/blocking/etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS just badly wants to have those cutoffs that get stuck in the southwest spinning for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 New JMA seasonal...week 2 FTW, notice the 850's and the split flow in the 500mb day 10-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Lets just go out to day 7 (realistic limit). I'll take this look any day: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150115+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did yall, love what the GFS did? LOL what a nice 180 from the last couple of runs. Got to love the more changing...I will be interested to see what the EURO does with it. Hey, at least we have a storm still showing up. Doesn't do crap, but its there..I would rather have a cutter than that crappy look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did yall, love what the GFS did? LOL what a nice 180 from the last couple of runs. Got to love the more changing...I will be interested to see what the EURO does with it. Hey, at least we have a storm still showing up. Doesn't do crap, but its there..I would rather have a cutter than that crappy look... Don't forget man that the 12z GFS run today is the NEW GFS. 6z run was "OLD" GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Don't forget man that the 12z GFS run today is the NEW GFS. 6z run was "OLD" GFS. Actually it switched over yesterday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Don't forget man that the 12z GFS run today is the NEW GFS. 6z run was "OLD" GFS. Day late and a dollar short Jason! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Day late and a dollar short Jason! :-) LOL...sticking head back in hole.... Thanks Burger and Dacula! I really wasn't paying attention and for some reason thought it was the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Anyone see the CMC? I'm only out to 108. Curious how it looks out past 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Remarkable consistency of 12z GFS ensemble members when looking at spaghetti plots at 200 mb (I have found this closely approximates the polar aka northern stream jet) at 5 and 7 days out. Which as you would expect does match up with the control run. Looks like changes begin to take place in the 5-7 day period with respect to the incoming ridge off the west coast and subsequent troughing across the southern plains of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Anyone see the CMC? I'm only out to 108. Curious how it looks out past 200. From what I can tell with the awful Meteociel maps, it appears to have caved to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 EURO is going to have another look it appears with this...At this point, 6z thur, we won't see the big phaser. Looks closer to 12z run yesterday at 500mb as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Latest from Judah Cohen -The downward propagation of negative AO conditions in the stratosphere should begin to influence the tropospheric circulation in about a week. Therefore, we anticipate positive AO conditions to trend more negative the second half of January. This will promote more high latitude blocking and colder temperatures hemispherically for the remainder of the month. -Prospects for a negative AO remain fairly high into February given the recent and ongoing weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, though some uncertainty on timing and the eventual strength of the negative AO state still remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Don't forget man that the 12z GFS run today is the NEW GFS. 6z run was "OLD" GFS. I wish they would run both of them because I haven't been that impressed with the new gfs, especially beyond the short range. Maybe it's just me but it seems like it changes even more drastically from run to run than the old gfs in the medium range. I could be just imagining things since the old gfs wasn't exactly known for it's consistency in the medium range but I certainly wish we still had the old gfs to compare it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I wish they would run both of them because I haven't been that impressed with the new gfs, especially beyond the short range. Maybe it's just me but it seems like it changes even more drastically from run to run than the old gfs in the medium range. I could be just imagining things since the old gfs wasn't exactly known for it's consistency in the medium range but I certainly wish we still had the old gfs to compare it to. yeah I can't say I was too excited about it myself. It's almost like taking the NAM and extending it to 192. Waste... Maybe it will show up better in the 3 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Latest from Judah Cohen -The downward propagation of negative AO conditions in the stratosphere should begin to influence the tropospheric circulation in about a week. Therefore, we anticipate positive AO conditions to trend more negative the second half of January. This will promote more high latitude blocking and colder temperatures hemispherically for the remainder of the month. -Prospects for a negative AO remain fairly high into February given the recent and ongoing weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, though some uncertainty on timing and the eventual strength of the negative AO state still remains. Is it me or is he just reading the models for his updates? AO negative in about a week huh? You get that from your SAI index did ya huh? We better have a fab feb or I'm totally writing him an email!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro moved significantly towards the 0 & 12z GFS for the Jan 23rd fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro moved significantly towards the 0 & 12z GFS for the Jan 23rd fantasy storm. EPS still looks more inland....but overall I liked the EPS look outside of any storms. Just add more fuel to the fact that a big change is coming for actual winter weather in the SE. Also, thanks for posting more recently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro moved significantly towards the 0 & 12z GFS for the Jan 23rd fantasy storm. I agree 100%. The the support from eps for the OP is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z Euro moved significantly towards the 0 & 12z GFS for the Jan 23rd fantasy storm.ensembles have a ton of spread. The control runs the low up 95 which don't happen anymore so we can ignore that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 EPS still looks more inland....but overall I liked the EPS look outside of any storms. Just add more fuel to the fact that a big change is coming for actual winter weather in the SE. Also, thanks for posting more recently! I agree 100%. The the support from eps for the OP is meh Yep, usually beyond five days or so its best to look at overall patterns and the overall patter suggests we will have multiple opportunities in the long range should it come to pass. By the way where is the best place to view the European ensemble (free would be ideal)? I have found mean spread, but would prefer spaghetti plots if they are available. And I do enjoy participating when time and weather patterns permit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 That Equatorial VP correlation to wintry weather here in NC & SC has continued to pick up right where it left off last winter... Now we're up to seeing 8 winter storms in a row, dating all the way back to the beginning of last winter, w/ coincident -Velocity Potential in the 30-60 E longitudinal band. This is pretty amazing.. The upward MJO will be headed towards this longitudinal band (Africa & the Western Indian Ocean) over the next 1-2 weeks... The recent -VP burst was triggered by a CCKW and we're going to have a lot more where that came from by late January as the MJO takes its sweet time pushing across the western hemisphere. Aside from the synoptic pattern, which will feature a classic southern US overrunning &/or CAD/Miller B precursor... 500mb preceding large southern US overrunning events... 500mb preceding large/recent NC Miller B events... Of course, the ECMWF ensembles that were initially posted by WSI & have been getting thrown around quite a bit on here are also in compliance... Additionally, as I also mentioned yesterday we'll be witnessing the standard North Pacific pattern retrogression, w/ a PNA ridge eventually retrograding westward & projecting onto the EPO & eventually WPO indices (i.e. a significant -WPO/-EPO regime will develop & likely follow in close behind the oncoming PNA surge), & the Equatorial forcing once again will be fantastic. If we could replenish the snowpack to our north I would be even more pleased, but overall, I really like what I'm seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 ensembles have a ton of spread. The control runs the low up 95 which don't happen anymore so we can ignore that one. Yep still a long ways out... And we don't want a low up 95, well at least most of us, NC Mountains can do well depending on a number of factors of course. Probably won't converge on a solution for several more days at the least. Side note that doesn't necessarily apply to this particular possible storm, but I know some of the major storms of the past were picked up earlier in models than normal - something to maybe keep an eye on at the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yep, usually beyond five days or so its best to look at overall patterns and the overall patter suggests we will have multiple opportunities in the long range should it come to pass. By the way where is the best place to view the European ensemble (free would be ideal)? I have found mean spread, but would prefer spaghetti plots if they are available. And I do enjoy participating when time and weather patterns permit! I'm not sure there are any spaghetti plots for free with the Euro ENS. Look out for a PM from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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