rduwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Something that'll need watching over the next week, other than track, is 2m temps. 0z GFS is the perfect track but temps could be an issue but too far out to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Being within the heart of winter should help us out (relatively speaking) for any marginal events that come up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like a good hit for much of NC from a line running N/W of CLT to RDU. 3-5" or so, perhaps. Surface temperatures are dreadful, though, but I just don't think surface temperatures will ruin a strong storm with adequately cold 850s. Never seen it happen here, at least. With 850s of -2C to -3C, that seems hard to believe. It will all be different at 06z, anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS cold throughout the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like a good hit for much of NC from a line running N/W of CLT to RDU. 3-5" or so, perhaps. Surface temperatures are dreadful, though, but I just don't think surface temperatures will ruin a strong storm with adequately cold 850s. Never seen it happen here, at least. We're talking surface temps on a Day 8-9 event...that would be the last thing I would sweat at this time. We need to see consistent runs of a Miller-A sliding from the Gulf to off the GA/SC coast and everything else will handle itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS cold throughout the runExcept for the 22/23rd! (Jk) ! The warmer run is a little concerning, but I guess at 8 days out , you don't want to be in the bullseye. It's also good to have GFS and Euro to have the storm in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Damn what an awesome run of the new GFS. If that's not a major winter storm in the southeast at hr204, we got to just quit. The low over the northeast winds up on Monday, and everything gets blocked up behind it. Then we get the southern streamer coming into California in split flow with a building west coast ridge. The 12z Euro Ensemble Mean and 18z GFS Ensemble Mean were farther north and moreso favoring the mid-Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how those trend overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 euro looks interesting as heck sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 euro looks interesting as heck sunday Could see some snow showers break out over NC/SC/GA on the back side of the Miller B storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro is bombing out that NE low. 989mb Sun night in northern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Could see some snow showers break out over NC/SC/GA on the back side of the Miller B storm. I agree..DEF dug further west this run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'll take anything at this point! Definitely not giving up as the signals are beginning to change. Just give me some weaker upper level systems that can produce 3 or 4 inches at the time before the larger systems hit. That will be just fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well I suspect the Euro will get interesting in a bit given how blocked up the flow over SE Canada is at day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 #FAIL!!! Severe weather maybe? Needless to say BIG differences at 500mb on this run of the euro. Nothing over the lakes, i.e. vortex/low pressure, to keep this suppressed...next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Euro is cutting. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Of course, sub-freezing 850mb retreated to the north. So incredibly frustrating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like a good hit for much of NC from a line running N/W of CLT to RDU. 3-5" or so, perhaps. Surface temperatures are dreadful, though, but I just don't think surface temperatures will ruin a strong storm with adequately cold 850s. Never seen it happen here, at least. With 850s of -2C to -3C, that seems hard to believe. It will all be different at 06z, anyways... sure is, weak and farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 #FAIL!!! Severe weather maybe? Needless to say BIG differences at 500mb on this run of the euro. Nothing over the lakes, i.e. vortex/low pressure, to keep this suppressed...next.... The Euro is cutting. Yikes. This is obviously bad...but if the Euro was correct it would also facilitate a major pattern change as the storm wraps up....that being said all winter in the LR we've seen storms model to do this and it just hasn't really happened. I don't know why they keep wanting to make these big wrapped up super storms that cut but they do. Christmas is a prime example of that. I would suspect a weakish non event over that super wrapped up look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 6z has the low on the 23rd,has the low crossing around Orlando , precip never gets N of CAE, and is all rain verbatim! The big two, are worlds apart, still have 7 days to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This is obviously bad...but if the Euro was correct it would also facilitate a major pattern change as the storm wraps up....that being said all winter in the LR we've seen storms model to do this and it just hasn't really happened. I don't know why they keep wanting to make these big wrapped up super storms that cut but they do. Christmas is a prime example of that. I would suspect a weakish non event over that super wrapped up look. Well the 6z GFS was suppressed too far to the south. Take the average between the euro and GFS and we still have our storm. **I'm only half joking; at this range we just need to see a storm and some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 00z EPS mean is also inland as well as the GEFS...not a good look at all...that's ok, though. Since when were we betting on a snowstorm on 1/24? Last few days? I'll wait until we can get in a better pattern to cash out early feb...the cold is marginal in this storm and there's nothing to suppress it...If the models switch back to a off the coast bomb I'd be surprised, the setup just doesn't look good. I will say however the models are a bit lost, flipping from solutions within one run, no need to write it off yet until we see 12z and 00z later do the same then it's toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Out of 72 EPS members, only 2 show significant snowfall in the carolinas over the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Let me ask this question. Why should we believe in a wound up storm that cuts inland? Models, mainly the euro, have been doing it a lot this winter only to have a strung out weak little mess in the end, right? I'm not saying it can't happen, but I think for now, it's better to think a weaker GFS type solution would be more correct. We shall see. Sounds like the storm idea has ENS support tho. That's good Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, the good news from last night(if there is any), is the EC drives the AO deeply negative. It gets down to almost -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Btw, I love how we literally go from one extreme to the other. Ugh! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Actually, we end up with a severely negative AO, a negative NAO and a +PNA and still get a ****ing cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Agree with Delta. Big wound up storms have shown up several times this winter and didn't verify. Maybe it'll be different this time, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that just yet. I'd place better odds on a weak system with no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 We need the Monday storm to bomb , then sort of block things up a little , then cash in the 23 with a southern slider! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I just checked out the ensembles from last night at D10. There is a remarkable amount of agreement in the overall pattern across the board. I'm not sure I've seen this much broad-based agreement all winter so far. Specific storm threats in the LR are going to change, but the agreement in the overall pattern is pretty darn good. (By the way, the 0z GFS looks good in the LR, pretty much all the way through). Euro ENS (Aleutian Low, big tall PNA/EPO ridge, split flow signal, and some ridging over the top. Flow coming straight out of the arctic): Gem ENS (About the same as the Euro ENS): 0z GFS ENS: 6z GFS ENS: Look at the agreement! That's a cold and potentially stormy look. I'm happy with how things are progressing...at least at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Good post CR that is reason number two I don't see storms riding inland and totally winding up. A strong Miller B that exists OTS in the NE is not totally out of the question but I have a hard time buying it crashes straight into Canada as a superstorm of sorts. Even in the flow we are in now with minor confluence storms are staying south for the most part. Just to add a bit of caution. LR models especially the LR GFS tend to go to the extremes. Extreme cold or extreme torch. It's def. plausible we end up with more of a Dec. 2009 look where it just doesn't quite get cold enough for these big storms outside of the mountains. Just something to look out for if indeed we end up with all the indices on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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