Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 He has to remember most of the member here act more like this... By the way the EPS just looks "meh" on the surface for us....it does look like there is a good cold air press coming though so probably looks better on the NH maps I just haven't looked at them. Lol... We need to drop the AO. Even so, Webber's PDO is going to help us in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well, I'm not trying to sound pompous at all and I hope others will take more notice of the PDO, especially when it's well into record breaking territory like this year. When the PDO is positive, it generally suppresses the southeastern US ridge (although it's not as successful in December because the jet is naturally weaker & the Aleutian Low is further north), and forces split flow over N America, often blasting right into the heart the subtropical SE US ridge (particularly in February), however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake, especially considering this past fall registered in the top 5 all-time for strongest fall +PDO... While I enjoy reading through all the technical things you post, I am sure the majority of the board would like to know (since a large majority of what you post, while detailed, goes over the head of most in here) what percentage chance you'd put on a pattern that would be much more supportive of multiple snow and ice threats in the southeast, something more sustainable (not transitory) from late January into and through much of the month of February?? I would think your research points in the direction of likely, but would be nice to hear your thoughts in layman's terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well, I'm not trying to sound pompous at all and I hope others will take more notice of the PDO, especially when it's well into record breaking territory like this year. When the PDO is positive, it generally suppresses the southeastern US ridge (although it's not as successful in December because the jet is naturally weaker & the Aleutian Low is further north), and forces split flow over N America, often blasting right into the heart the subtropical SE US ridge (particularly in February), however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake, especially considering this past fall registered in the top 5 all-time for strongest fall +PDO... LOL...You know us...you know we have to visually see the EPS show us this before we believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm being completely serious, it was blatantly obvious... I do appreciate the feedback but it is frustrating in many cases how some of this seems to fall upon deaf ears... If your intention is to impart knowledge, you're forgetting teaching rule number one. Know your class and tailor the lesson to fit their level of understanding. If you don't, you may as well be explaining in Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 LOL...You know us...you know we have to visually see the EPS show us this before we believe it.But it has to be under day 10 or people freak out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 But it has to be under day 10 or people freak out We gotta explain it using common core math! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 But it has to be under day 10 or people freak out Was thinking about this, the way Webber so elegantly put it, seems like there is 0% chance it won't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I still dont see a negative NAO in the extended GFS ens. I see Siberia getting very cold air with strong ridging in the west US and zonal flow to the east US. The SE ridge looks like it's trying to make a comeback near the end of the run. Need a trough and not zonal flow here to even begin pondering extended below average temps and strong lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I still dont see a negative NAO in the extended GFS ens. I see Siberia getting very cold air with strong ridging in the west US and zonal flow to the east US. The SE ridge looks like it's trying to make a comeback near the end of the run. Need a trough and not zonal flow here to even begin pondering extended below average temps and strong lows. Shhhhhh! Don't say that in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I still dont see a negative NAO in the extended GFS ens. I see Siberia getting very cold air with strong ridging in the west US and zonal flow to the east US. The SE ridge looks like it's trying to make a comeback near the end of the run. Need a trough and not zonal flow here to even begin pondering extended below average temps and strong lows.how do you get zonal flow with "stong ridging" in the west? The coldest air is always in Siberia until it gets unlocked by a -epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Was thinking about this, the way Webber so elegantly put it, seems like there is 0% chance it won't verify. I love semantics - "0% chance it won't verify" = or ≠ 0% or 100% it will verify ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Shhhhhh! Don't say that in here.Yeah , it really came to fruition the last time it was showing and all the warministas were pointing it out! Warministasforlife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 how do you get zonal flow with "stong ridging" in the west? The coldest air is always in Siberia until it gets unlocked by a -epo. When there is nothing in the Atlantic to cause a trough in the east US. Hopefully it changes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 When there is nothing in the Atlantic to cause a trough in the east US. Hopefully it changes though don't worry the pv is coming back to Hudson bay. You still get a trough in the east with a ridge out west. Epo is going back negative too. The nao should come after the ao and once we can get the stubborn vortex out of se Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 don't worry the pv is coming back to Hudson bay. You still get a trough in the east with a ridge out west. Epo is going back negative too. The nao should come after the ao and once we can get the stubborn vortex out of se Canada. hope your right. i want some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Folks, My own opinion (based on my recent analysis of JAN KATL day by day data) is that the current model consensus for the MJO (as per Steve's link below) is right about where I like seeing it going for prime time potential: MJO 1/13/15 model forecasts (compiled at Steve's website): http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Note where the coolest anomalies are on this map (this is based on 1,240 KATL JAN days since 1975...i.e., a very large sample):https://www.american...-1420242524.png IMO, this is about where I think is the most optimal path for cold (though keep in mind that the MJO is just one "tool" among many and not a crystal ball..but I like the odds fwiw):https://www.american...-1420242779.gif Regardless of the MJO, it obviously would help immensely if we could also at least get a sustained -AO and, even better yet, a neutral NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 EURO and GFS ENS say maybe a NEU NAO and a def. -AO Larry! This could be our BEST chance the next 2-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Lots going on in the world of weather, so lets talk about it! New video is up. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 FWIW 18z GFS run was simply AWFUL for 2m temps!!! Never showed upstate or points east in SC or NC getting below freezing from hour 192 through the rest of the run, which goes out to 1/30. A lot of zonal flow going on with lots of cold in eastern Canada but never coming south of Mason Dixon. Really hope it's out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 FWIW 18z GFS run was simply AWFUL for 2m temps!!! Never showed upstate or points east in SC or NC getting below freezing from hour 192 through the rest of the run, which goes out to 1/30. A lot of zonal flow going on with lots of cold in eastern Canada but never coming south of Mason Dixon. Really hope it's out to lunch The 18z GFS ensembles looked nothing like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 FWIW 18z GFS run was simply AWFUL for 2m temps!!! Never showed upstate or points east in SC or NC getting below freezing from hour 192 through the rest of the run, which goes out to 1/30. A lot of zonal flow going on with lots of cold in eastern Canada but never coming south of Mason Dixon. Really hope it's out to lunch FWIW, its one long range model run. Not exactly written in stone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 You should remember that you are 19 and you're talking to a group of folks of all ages and all backgrounds. Not everyone has the same grasp of the science that you do. Your explanations are often long and technical. Its it not logical to conclude that it is possible that not everyone always picks up the point you're driving at? Instead of being frustrated, which comes across in your thoughts, teach. And teach simply. I know you are frustrated...but remember something. This forum is mainly for people that follow weather as a hobby. That means they spend a very small amount of time researching and learning. This means it takes awhile to get to anything beyond a surface map. You just posted maps that I bet 90% of posters here have little understanding of other than what the colors mean on the map. This is kind of like talking to someone who likes to "watch" basketball vs. a basketball fanatic. You have to learn that you talk to each one differently. With the fanatic you can discuss how the D didn't rotate on the pick and roll thus the basket was scored. With someone who just watches basketball you might say the defender should have moved around the player to block the shot. See the difference? I see and everything that was said here is true in my eyes, I try to keep my posts from becoming too lengthy & technical ( I could do much more than this), however I think this is just another case of watching the conditions at hand (which models use to assimilate, initialize, etc. & w/ their flawed, yet realistic derivations often having an understood margin of error, are inadvertently self-destructive (if that's the adequate term to use her) w/ error increasing growth with time) reigning over model guidance. Apart from looking at short range events, I use the models sparingly if @ all to mold my ideas for long range forecasting. I've actually reached the point now where I possess little-if any passion whatsoever for watching their every run like I used to several years ago and I often go on several day spells without looking at a single model run, yet still am able to come away w/ the basic ideas in an upcoming pattern. One could only imagine... I see absolutely nothing wrong w/ watching the models from a passive enthusiast standpoint, however if you desire to make something of your passion for the weather, would like to take it several steps forward, or are just plain sick of the models in general ( I personally hope that last proposition resonates with somebody here, lol), I implore that it's in your best interest to start delving into the processes that govern weather patterns in a broad sense & their throng of teleconnections, among other things. If you are incessantly hungry for this desire to attain a wealth of knowledge, (which in this day & age lays conveniently at your fingertips, you just have to know where to look), and you want it badly enough, eventually, you'll reach a point where, the notion that "the more you know the more you realize you don't know" will "suddenly" reverberate throughout every pore, & that's when you'll know that you've started to become wise. ( @ least as it pertains to weather, but this statement is applicable in other situations as well. Also, expelling inherent bias will take you very far, and for me the 2013 Hurricane Season was the last straw. since that time, I've taken an implicit & unwritten oath of sorts, to stress exercising impartiality above all else & to quell the aspirations of the weather weenie within... While I enjoy reading through all the technical things you post, I am sure the majority of the board would like to know (since a large majority of what you post, while detailed, goes over the head of most in here) what percentage chance you'd put on a pattern that would be much more supportive of multiple snow and ice threats in the southeast, something more sustainable (not transitory) from late January into and through much of the month of February?? I would think your research points in the direction of likely, but would be nice to hear your thoughts in layman's terms. In light of all the research & data I've posted here & am currently well aware, I would likely go w/ a number somewhere around 75-80% which remarkably, narrowly exceeds the historical probability for below normal temperatures the temperatures in NC, SC, & GA in February within this ENSO base state (70%). Uncertainty (in terms of the ferocity & precisely when the pattern turns favorable (again)) & caution are the two main pre-conditions (mentally) that are withholding me from raising these %ages to near 90-95 percent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Man, the euro ensembles look great staring around day 9 and going through the end of the run. West coast ridge, -epo and ao. Deep trough in the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Man, the euro ensembles look great staring around day 9 and going through the end of the run. West coast ridge, -epo and ao. Deep trough in the east! The 0Z model consensus along with 6Z GFS for late month looks very nice with some threats/very close calls. The 6Z GFS comes very close 1/22-23 with a near miss Miller A. The 0Z EPS shows a threat for 1/25. I have a feeling the fun this winter will markedly increase with much closer calls to actual threats for sig. to major events for many areas starting in just over a week. We'll see. Also, add the MJO to the list of favorable indices for late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Packbacker will finally be happy as the EPS looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Packbacker will finally be happy as the EPS looks really good. Packbacker won't be happy until snow is blocking his front door, trapping him in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The 0Z model consensus along with 6Z GFS for late month looks very nice with some threats/very close calls. The 6Z GFS comes very close 1/22-23 with a near miss Miller A. The 0Z EPS shows a threat for 1/25. I have a feeling the fun this winter will markedly increase with much closer calls to actual threats for sig. to major events for many areas starting in just over a week. We'll see. Also, add the MJO to the list of favorable indices for late month. I just wanted to say thank you to GaWx who has been realistic, yet optimistic pretty much all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Also thanks to Burger for his pbp's, Oh heck, thanks to most all of you, I learn something every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 EPS has the cold temps, we just need to reel in some moisture. Euro looks chilly as well after about day 8. 12z GFS ensembles looked okay. It's getting to be go time for us in the SE. Time to **** or get off the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Packbacker won't be happy until snow is blocking his front door, trapping him in the house. Yep, we have done the seasonsble/warm/rain, then the cold/dry, now we just need the cold/snowy or warm/dry. I am good with either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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