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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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I was 100% joking...we get the blocking the EPS is showing we should be good. I think will see the EPS get stronger with the -AO as we approach Feb.

I wonder if we lose the GEFS tomorrow and have to wait for the GEFS-para.

you can't joke when you're normally somewhat pessimistic for LR modeling haha! I do think the models haven't figured it out yet, so with time the trough should correct or at least not be as strong and stay put out west. However I'm not talking about the first half of the last 10 days of Jan as I think that's already toast, I'm more talking about Jan 28th+...the man Ventrice posted just tells the story the cold is returning to the CONUS.

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you can't joke when you're normally somewhat pessimistic for LR modeling haha! I do think the models haven't figured it out yet, so with time the trough should correct or at least not be as strong and stay put out west. However I'm not talking about the first half of the last 10 days of Jan as I think that's already toast, I'm more talking about Jan 28th+...the man Ventrice posted just tells the story the cold is returning to the CONUS.

 

LOL...well the persistent negativity of the MA board has been working for them, if you read there board you would think they would be 60% of climo the past several winters like us, instead they are 150% of climo.  The reverse psychology thing doesn't seem to working for us though, maybe I should go all optmistic and hope for dumb luck.  

 

I would be surprised if there isn't a small event for the SE the last week of Jan.  We have tons of energy, nothing can amplify but if the pattern sets up as the EPS/GEFS is showing then....

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LOL...well the persistent negativity of the MA board has been working for them, if you read there board you would think they would be 60% of climo the past several winters like us, instead they are 150% of climo. The reverse psychology thing doesn't seem to working for us though, maybe I should go all optmistic and hope for dumb luck.

I would be surprised if there isn't a small event for the SE the last week of Jan. We have tons of energy, nothing can amplify but if the pattern sets up as the EPS/GEFS is showing then....

lol- a college should do a psych study on us. There's a disconnect in mentality with what is acceptable as far as events go. Chasing a big storm all the time leads to nothing but hurt feelings. Minor events are a staple weather event in our area much moreso than the "big one". I enjoy tracking any event. It's fun. But that's just me.

Still pretty muddy in the long range. Part of me thinks we enter a period similar to last year where things don't line up all that great but plenty of cold around and an active pna ridge (up and down) could produce shotgun style events up and down the east coast with winners and losers close together.

The other part of me thinks that we're going to get a more ideal and stable trough axis (with just enough help from the ao/nao) to produce larger overunning style events with a possible coastal track if the ridge out west cooperates.

There's just no way to know. Pretty good agreement on a substantial cold dump at long leads. When you see the eps/gefs showing 850's anomlies as low as they are in the d10-15 range, it's a pretty strong signal considering the typical spread. As lead times shorten we'll have a better idea of where the push hits first. I'm just hoping for east of the rockies. That should do it for us temp wise. Precip events won't have any clarity for a while obviously.

I've been tracking the strat stuff (but profess no skill) and HM has helped me quite a bit this year. Very disturbed and displaced pv from top to bottom (even splitting @ 50-100mbs) is on both the gfs and euro. If we're going to break the back on the persistent blue hole over greenland/iceland, this is probably our best shot so far.

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Well just from the looks of 5 days from now it appears the CFS is going to bust extremely hard on Jan overall with it's torch. 

 

I wouldn't call that a hard bust, or even a bust yet.  The conus will be warm the next 10 days and then after that if you believe the EPS the SE stays warm through end of Jan.  

 

Edit: Looking at it, I bet the CFS verifies quite nicely.

post-2311-0-92355200-1421165650_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-54044800-1421165664_thumb.pn

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I wouldn't call that a hard bust, or even a bust yet.  The conus will be warm the next 10 days and then after that if you believe the EPS the SE stays warm through end of Jan.  

 

Edit: Looking at it, I bet the CFS verifies quite nicely.

The cfs busted. It had a major torch for all of January pretty much. People were jumping off cliffs because of this model but the first 15 days of January has been anything but a torch. Jon posted verification scores of the models and the cfs has one of the worse scores out of the models.
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I wouldn't call that a hard bust, or even a bust yet.  The conus will be warm the next 10 days and then after that if you believe the EPS the SE stays warm through end of Jan.  

 

Edit: Looking at it, I bet the CFS verifies quite nicely.

 

Overall Jan has been below normal it seems like. I see Fri - Mon with above average and then it goes back to below average after that. With what looks like another 2 days of above average and then back to below. I just don't see how we end up averaging +2 - 4 with the looks we're getting on models. Of course I could be wrong I just think it's going to end up being wrong. 

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The cfs busted. It had a major torch for all of January pretty much. People were jumping off cliffs because of this model but the first 15 days of January has been anything but a torch. Jon posted verification scores of the models and the cfs has one of the worse scores out of the models.

 

It nailed Dec, people were saying back then, oh the CFS sucks, no way the conus will torch and what happened?  

 

Jan temp's look reasonable to me, it picked up the cold is centered in the central part of the US with a very cold Canada.  It does have the SE above normal for Jan, so we will have to see how this plays out.  If the EPS is correct, we will finish above normal for Jan.  The EPS/GEFS is very warm through 23rd or so, it diverges after that.

post-2311-0-10980500-1421166649_thumb.pn

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It nailed Dec, people were saying back then, oh the CFS sucks, no way the conus will torch and what happened?

Jan temp's look reasonable to me, it picked up the cold is centered in the central part of the US with a very cold Canada. It does have the SE above normal for Jan, so we will have to see how this plays out. If the EPS is correct, we will finish above normal for Jan. The EPS/GEFS is very warm through 23rd or so, it diverges after that.

the next 15 days is a long time away and we would have to torch pretty good because the departures right know are impressive. We will see one way or another. You can find bad in every model and pattern but it Is how you look at things. Will we warm up a bit. Yeah we will but no big deal it usually happens every January. To me we will get cold but can we get some blocking for a decent storm.
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It nailed Dec, people were saying back then, oh the CFS sucks, no way the conus will torch and what happened?  

 

Jan temp's look reasonable to me, it picked up the cold is centered in the central part of the US with a very cold Canada.  It does have the SE above normal for Jan, so we will have to see how this plays out.  If the EPS is correct, we will finish above normal for Jan.  The EPS/GEFS is very warm through 23rd or so, it diverges after that.

 

The CFS may very well be correct this month but my problem is looking at daily's it just changes as much as the models. It's kind of a roll the dice model and what you get depends on what day you check in on it. Right now to me like I said I just don't see how we can end up +2 or +3 at least in NC/SC. Just not many days with above average temps showing up. Now throw in the fact that we seem to be getting big strong wedges coming in and well those above average days may not be so above average. As I said we shall see. Obviously we are all hoping that the last week in Jan. sees cold coming in and setting up for a fab feb. 

 

As an example this is cherry picked from in December. 

XIyR71pl.png

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The CFS may very well be correct this month but my problem is looking at daily's it just changes as much as the models. It's kind of a roll the dice model and what you get depends on what day you check in on it. Right now to me like I said I just don't see how we can end up +2 or +3 at least in NC/SC. Just not many days with above average temps showing up. Now throw in the fact that we seem to be getting big strong wedges coming in and well those above average days may not be so above average. As I said we shall see. Obviously we are all hoping that the last week in Jan. sees cold coming in and setting up for a fab feb. 

 

As an example this is cherry picked from in December. 

 

I just checked and I'm -4 for the month and with it being 40 all day to day it will only go lower.  I will need a couple of 70+ degree days to make up such a large margin.

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Come on.....sigh....... It's stuff like this that has no business in here. Make an informative post or keep it in banter

I was making a comment how the past few model cycles has muted the warmup and brought cooler air into the country. Sarcasm does not come across via a keep board easily I guess.
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I just checked and I'm -4 for the month and with it being 40 all day to day it will only go lower.  I will need a couple of 70+ degree days to make up such a large margin.

 

Yea so far models just are not that bullish on such a warm rest of the month. Of course just because we're average or below average also does not equate to winter weather so it's kind of like arguing over who gets to wash the dishes. 

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The CFS may very well be correct this month but my problem is looking at daily's it just changes as much as the models. It's kind of a roll the dice model and what you get depends on what day you check in on it. Right now to me like I said I just don't see how we can end up +2 or +3 at least in NC/SC. Just not many days with above average temps showing up. Now throw in the fact that we seem to be getting big strong wedges coming in and well those above average days may not be so above average. As I said we shall see. Obviously we are all hoping that the last week in Jan. sees cold coming in and setting up for a fab feb.

As an example this is cherry picked from in December.

XIyR71pl.png

the cfs is terrible, I don't understand why it gets so much play?
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I wouldn't call that a hard bust, or even a bust yet.  The conus will be warm the next 10 days and then after that if you believe the EPS the SE stays warm through end of Jan.  

 

Edit: Looking at it, I bet the CFS verifies quite nicely.

 

Now, this is what I call verification, those ENSO composites have been spot on this month. Cut & paste the regressed -EPO/WPO. Organic forecasting > climate models...

WPO-EPO-Warm-Neutral-Weak-El-Nino-JanuarOf course I should also throw this tidbit in about the PDO I posted last night on the banter...

 

It's worth mentioning, the PDO this past December according to JISAO, set a new all-time monthly record high by a lot... +2.51. The closest rival is December 2002 and this was the highest monthly PDO value observed since August 1997. In fact, this is the 9th highest PDO value in the entire record, behind July 1936, November 1936, August 1941, July 1983, August 1987, August 1993, June 1997, & August 1997. Incredible

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

This is also the highest PDO value ever observed in any winter since 1900... the extreme -QBO I've seen getting thrown is a red herring for the observed warmth in December (for one, we don't have a long enough "reliable" record to conclude the extreme -QBO is causing this, i.e. extremely small sample size (of 1-December 2005) w/ a -QBO even in the ballpark of this year, not to mention the strong -QBO is related to the PDO which is a primary regulator of stratospheric upwelling anyway, hence the correspondence between the two over inter-multidecadal timescales.

QBO-PDO-correlation-169-month-running-me

 

Strong warm PDO winters like this year tend to start out mild in December, then flip in January & February.

Top-20-PDO-Decembers-US-Temps.png

 

This past December looks even better (i.e. more like this year) when you take out the -ENSO years...

Top-20-PDO-Decembers-US-temps-ENSO.png

 

 

The strong (record-breaking) +PDO, when coupled w/ favorable intraseasonal forcing (i.e. a Pacific MJO burst) leads to intermittent mild spells, as the Pacific Jet floods N America w/ mild air, but by February, the pattern response to this stimulus is vastly different (reiterating the concept that this is related to the southward shift of the Aleutian Low). Once the jet retracts again in a little over a week or so from now in response to the MJO exiting the Pacific, the heights are going to spike over Alaska & the North Pacific, *generally* similar to what we saw in late December in front of the cold shot that came straight out of Siberia, then left the fun & games begin as we approach February. I'll admit, I still also get a kick out of the unfounded concerns that were prevalent a few weeks ago about the SE US ridge this winter, you'd think with a record breaking warm PDO, that would be a huge giveaway this wasn't going to be the case, but I guess not...

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Now, this is what I call verification, those ENSO composites have been spot on this month. Cut & paste the regressed -EPO/WPO. Organic forecasting > climate models...

Of course I should also throw this tidbit in about the PDO I posted last night on the banter...

 

It's worth mentioning, the PDO this past December according to JISAO, set a new all-time monthly record high by a lot... +2.51. The closest rival is December 2002 and this was the highest monthly PDO value observed since August 1997. In fact, this is the 9th highest PDO value in the entire record, behind July 1936, November 1936, August 1941, July 1983, August 1987, August 1993, June 1997, & August 1997. Incredible

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

This is also the highest PDO value ever observed in any winter since 1900... the extreme -QBO I've seen getting thrown is a red herring for the observed warmth in December (for one, we don't have a long enough "reliable" record to conclude the extreme -QBO is causing this, i.e. extremely small sample size (of 1-December 2005) w/ a -QBO even in the ballpark of this year, not to mention the strong -QBO is related to the PDO which is a primary regulator of stratospheric upwelling anyway, hence the correspondence between the two over inter-multidecadal timescales.

 

 

Strong warm PDO winters like this year tend to start out mild in December, then flip in January & February.

 

 

This past December looks even better (i.e. more like this year) when you take out the -ENSO years...

 

 

 

The strong (record-breaking) +PDO, when coupled w/ favorable intraseasonal forcing (i.e. a Pacific MJO burst) leads to intermittent mild spells, as the Pacific Jet floods N America w/ mild air, but by February, the pattern response to this stimulus is vastly different (reiterating the concept that this is related to the southward shift of the Aleutian Low). Once the jet retracts again in a little over a week or so from now in response to the MJO exiting the Pacific, the heights are going to spike over Alaska & the North Pacific, *generally* similar to what we saw in late December in front of the cold shot that came straight out of Siberia, then left the fun & games begin as we approach February. I'll admit, I still also get a kick out of the unfounded concerns that were prevalent a few weeks ago about the SE US ridge this winter, you'd think with a record breaking warm PDO, that would be a huge giveaway this wasn't going to be the case, but I guess not...

 

 

Not everyone here is quite as smart as you are, so it's good we have you to keep us informed of things we should have known, based on all of the research you've conducted.  Thanks for the help!

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Not everyone here is quite as smart as you are, so it's good we have you to keep us informed of things we should have known, based on all of the research you've conducted.  Thanks for the help!

 

Well, I'm not trying to sound pompous at all and I hope others will take more notice of the PDO, especially when it's well into record breaking territory like this year. When the PDO is positive, it generally suppresses the southeastern US ridge (although it's not as successful in December because the jet is naturally weaker & the Aleutian Low is further north), and forces split flow over N America, often blasting right into the heart the subtropical SE US ridge (particularly in February), however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake, especially considering this past fall registered in the top 5 all-time for strongest fall +PDO...

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Well, I'm not trying to sound pompous at all and I hope others will take more notice of the PDO, especially when it's well into record breaking territory like this year. When the PDO is positive, it generally suppresses the southeastern US ridge (although it's not as successful in December because the jet is naturally weaker & the Aleutian Low is further north), and forces split flow over N America, often blasting right into the heart the subtropical SE US ridge (particularly in February), however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake, especially considering this past fall registered in the top 5 all-time for strongest fall +PDO...

 

See, you almost did it.  You almost completed the post while avoiding the bolded.  Everything was awesome until, "...however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake..."  I sincerely like how you explained everything you just wrote.  Not everyone who reads and posts would find it obvious that a top 5 +PDO would squash a ridge like a pancake.  How you explained it before that sentence was awesome and very educational.  I do appreciate your contributions, research, and insight.

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See, you almost did it.  You almost completed the post while avoiding the bolded.  Everything was awesome until, "...however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake..."  I sincerely like how you explained everything you just wrote.  Not everyone who reads and posts would find it obvious that a top 5 +PDO would squash a ridge like a pancake.  How you explained it before that sentence was awesome and very educational.  I do appreciate your contributions, research, and insight.

 

I'm being completely serious, it was blatantly obvious...

PDO-DJF-500mb-N-hem.gif

Warm-Phase-PDO-N-Pac-SST.gif

sst.anom.month.gif

 

I do appreciate the feedback but it is frustrating in many cases how some of this seems to fall upon deaf ears... 

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See, you almost did it.  You almost completed the post while avoiding the bolded.  Everything was awesome until, "...however it was very obvious from the beginning the SE US ridge was going to be flattened like a pancake..."  I sincerely like how you explained everything you just wrote.  Not everyone who reads and posts would find it obvious that a top 5 +PDO would squash a ridge like a pancake.  How you explained it before that sentence was awesome and very educational.  I do appreciate your contributions, research, and insight.

 

He has to remember most of the members here think more like this...

By the way the EPS just looks "meh" on the surface for us....it does look like there is a good cold air press coming though so probably looks better on the NH maps I just haven't looked at them. 

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I'm being completely serious, it was blatantly obvious...

 

 

 

 

I do appreciate the feedback but it is frustrating in many cases how some of this seems to fall upon deaf ears... 

 

I know you are frustrated...but remember something. This forum is mainly for people that follow weather as a hobby. That means they spend a very small amount of time researching and learning. This means it takes awhile to get to anything beyond a surface map. You just posted maps that I bet 90% of posters here have little understanding of other than what the colors mean on the map. This is kind of like talking to someone who likes to "watch" basketball vs. a basketball fanatic. You have to learn that you talk to each one differently. With the fanatic you can discuss how the D didn't rotate on the pick and roll thus the basket was scored. With someone who just watches basketball you might say the defender should have moved around the player to block the shot. See the difference? 

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I'm being completely serious, it was blatantly obvious...

 

 

 

 

I do appreciate the feedback but it is frustrating in many cases how some of this seems to fall upon deaf ears... 

 

You should remember that you are 19 and you're talking to a group of folks of all ages and all backgrounds.  Not everyone has the same grasp of the science that you do.  Your explanations are often long and technical.  Its it not logical to conclude that it is possible that not everyone always picks up the point you're driving at?  Instead of being frustrated, which comes across in your thoughts, teach.  And teach simply.

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