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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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What I got from Allan's tweet is just the 15 day European ensembles show "warm" no matter what way you try and interpret them.  Not any commentary on forecasting or predicting accuracy of said ensembles.  It is 15 days out after all.

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What I got from Allan's tweet is just the 15 day European ensembles show "warm" no matter what way you try and interpret them.  Not any commentary on forecasting or predicting accuracy of said ensembles.  It is 15 days out after all.

 

Yeah, it's pretty much coast to coast above normal with Canada 'torching' (when compared to normal) and a trough over Alaska. That's a warm look, but eh, you see how fast things can change.

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Yeah, it's pretty much coast to coast above normal with Canada 'torching' (when compared to normal) and a trough over Alaska. That's a warm look, but eh, you see how fast things can change.

The Ak low is troubling though, that's a first its shown that, although haven't looked to much the past couple of days

Although is that good for you guys?

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The Ak low is troubling though, that's a first its shown that, although haven't looked to much the past couple of days

Although is that good for you guys?

it was showing an Aleutian low. It also continues to show low heights over the gulf Coast and cuba. What happened to the big se ridge it kept trying to flex?
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it was showing an Aleutian low. It also continues to show low heights over the gulf Coast and cuba. What happened to the big se ridge it kept trying to flex?

It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model.

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Here is your forecast, when you want it.  If you can't catch my forecast on tv, this is for you.  The full model discussion/trends/my thoughts on the longer ranger, later on.  This is a shorter video.  Enjoy! -Chris *Mostly a Mid GA focused video, but I do show maps for everyone.  Longer video later this eve.  :)

 

www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model.

Struggling is putting it lightly. Weeklies struggling as well as Larry has pointed out. Best model inside day 10.

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It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model.

we may not be seeing a snowstorm but we will not be torching either. That says a lot in how things have changed just in ten day. You can point out the negatives all day but th pattern is changing.
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I think the odds of us entering some grand snow pattern anytime soon have dwindled way down. The pattern is changing and we're getting into the coldest part of the year. We'll have chances and we'll get snow. But anything resembling a fabulous, textbook winter storm pattern in the SE looks to be increasingly difficult to come by.

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The Ak low is troubling though, that's a first its shown that, although haven't looked to much the past couple of days

Although is that good for you guys?

It's probably going to be pretty transient though, I wouldn't expect it to stick around and I'd expect the Alaska/west coast ridge to rebuild. We haven't been able to lock into anything long term this year, which is why the models are having such a hard time, it isn't a stable longwave pattern. 

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I think the odds of us entering some grand snow pattern anytime soon have dwindled way down. The pattern is changing and we're getting into the coldest part of the year. We'll have chances and we'll get snow. But anything resembling a fabulous, textbook winter storm pattern in the SE looks to be increasingly difficult to come by.

 

CR,

 I just want to see one good weakish Miller A, which often exists together with WSW 500 mb flow and while there is one sprawling Arctic high in the Midwest or the NE (sig. CAD preferred but not absolutely necessary). That's all it takes to make a great SE winter in many cases as you know. We don't need any longlasting pattern to get that one major storm, of course. A shortlived splitfow would be helpful though persistent cold obviously increases out chances of getting that one good storm.

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CR,

I just want to see one good weakish Miller A, which often exists together with WSW 500 mb flow and while there is one sprawling Arctic high in the Midwest or the NE (sig. CAD preferred but not absolutely necessary). That's all it takes to make a great SE winter in many cases as you know. We don't need any longlasting pattern to get that one major storm, of course. A shortlived splitfow would be helpful though persistent cold obviously increases out chances of getting that one good storm.

I agree with you 100%!

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I think the odds of us entering some grand snow pattern anytime soon have dwindled way down. The pattern is changing and we're getting into the coldest part of the year. We'll have chances and we'll get snow. But anything resembling a fabulous, textbook winter storm pattern in the SE looks to be increasingly difficult to come by.

it does for the next couple weeks but we will have chance and hopefully a good 6 week pattern can lock in.
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it does for the next couple weeks but we will have chance and hopefully a good 6 week pattern can lock in.

I would settle for a 7-10 day period of -AO/-NAO, hard to imagine a good pattern locking in. The weeklies look like more of the same, -EPO, cold dumps in west and tries to move east. Still have remanant of the PV over Greenland so +NAO. Hard to imagine any blocking this winter, we havent had it, the models are skyrocketing the AO in the near, medium and long term. MJO has been persistently stuck in 4-5, EPS sends it to COD then back to 4-5 again.

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When was the last time we had a "good " pattern lock in for an extended period?

Depending on the meaning of extended, arguably last year. It may not have been a classic setup, but it produced. The March setup was especially great and stayed that way for the majority of the month.

The truth is that we never get truly extended month-long wintry setups without some breaks in between. We live in the South.

2009-2010 had some torching, IIRC, and I want to say that winter was basically over after the first week of March.

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Love how when the weeklies come out there are about 50 different interpretations of them.... Kinda funny

Some people take them verbatim and that's fine I guess but people forget what the weeklies are, extended ensemble runs...I feel like people think it literally tells the future for the month, like it's some crystal ball. It's far from that, especially when they Euro ensembles are struggling like they are.

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