CaryWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 What I got from Allan's tweet is just the 15 day European ensembles show "warm" no matter what way you try and interpret them. Not any commentary on forecasting or predicting accuracy of said ensembles. It is 15 days out after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Other than the dec 20th-30th timeframe, the euro ensembles day 11-15 has shown western trough east coast ridge. We all know how the Christmas period turned out with regards to cold. It's been a bad year for the euro ensembles day 11-15 along with the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 What I got from Allan's tweet is just the 15 day European ensembles show "warm" no matter what way you try and interpret them. Not any commentary on forecasting or predicting accuracy of said ensembles. It is 15 days out after all. Yeah, it's pretty much coast to coast above normal with Canada 'torching' (when compared to normal) and a trough over Alaska. That's a warm look, but eh, you see how fast things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah, it's pretty much coast to coast above normal with Canada 'torching' (when compared to normal) and a trough over Alaska. That's a warm look, but eh, you see how fast things can change.The Ak low is troubling though, that's a first its shown that, although haven't looked to much the past couple of daysAlthough is that good for you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The Ak low is troubling though, that's a first its shown that, although haven't looked to much the past couple of days Although is that good for you guys? it was showing an Aleutian low. It also continues to show low heights over the gulf Coast and cuba. What happened to the big se ridge it kept trying to flex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 it was showing an Aleutian low. It also continues to show low heights over the gulf Coast and cuba. What happened to the big se ridge it kept trying to flex? It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Here is your forecast, when you want it. If you can't catch my forecast on tv, this is for you. The full model discussion/trends/my thoughts on the longer ranger, later on. This is a shorter video. Enjoy! -Chris *Mostly a Mid GA focused video, but I do show maps for everyone. Longer video later this eve. www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model. Struggling is putting it lightly. Weeklies struggling as well as Larry has pointed out. Best model inside day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model.it's not ideal but it can still snow. Especially not that it's a more favorable time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It may be struggling in day 11-15 range but we haven't seen a snowy pattern yet and nothing in the next 2 weeks indicates otherwise. It's still the best model.we may not be seeing a snowstorm but we will not be torching either. That says a lot in how things have changed just in ten day. You can point out the negatives all day but th pattern is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The weeklies are out. Very changeable, but a lot of ridging out west and some blocking showing at times too. Looks progressive. My guess is something locks at some point, at least for more than a couple of days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Struggling is putting it lightly. Weeklies struggling as well as Larry has pointed out. Best model inside day 10. I would even go further in saying maybe the best inside 7 days but we have seen some big Changes from both models from day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Larry thanks for showing how bad the weeklies have been recently. Again goes to show you how bad the models have been struggling recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Beginning of week 3 looks CRAZY good btw. Huge -EPO, bowl of cold in most of the US, Florida included, and a nice -NAO signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think the odds of us entering some grand snow pattern anytime soon have dwindled way down. The pattern is changing and we're getting into the coldest part of the year. We'll have chances and we'll get snow. But anything resembling a fabulous, textbook winter storm pattern in the SE looks to be increasingly difficult to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Oh yeah, forgot.....50/50 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Beginning of week 3 looks CRAZY good btw. Huge -EPO, bowl of cold in most of the US, Florida included, and a nice -NAO signature. Reverse psychology works an amazingly high percentage of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The Ak low is troubling though, that's a first its shown that, although haven't looked to much the past couple of days Although is that good for you guys? It's probably going to be pretty transient though, I wouldn't expect it to stick around and I'd expect the Alaska/west coast ridge to rebuild. We haven't been able to lock into anything long term this year, which is why the models are having such a hard time, it isn't a stable longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think the odds of us entering some grand snow pattern anytime soon have dwindled way down. The pattern is changing and we're getting into the coldest part of the year. We'll have chances and we'll get snow. But anything resembling a fabulous, textbook winter storm pattern in the SE looks to be increasingly difficult to come by. CR, I just want to see one good weakish Miller A, which often exists together with WSW 500 mb flow and while there is one sprawling Arctic high in the Midwest or the NE (sig. CAD preferred but not absolutely necessary). That's all it takes to make a great SE winter in many cases as you know. We don't need any longlasting pattern to get that one major storm, of course. A shortlived splitfow would be helpful though persistent cold obviously increases out chances of getting that one good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 CR, I just want to see one good weakish Miller A, which often exists together with WSW 500 mb flow and while there is one sprawling Arctic high in the Midwest or the NE (sig. CAD preferred but not absolutely necessary). That's all it takes to make a great SE winter in many cases as you know. We don't need any longlasting pattern to get that one major storm, of course. A shortlived splitfow would be helpful though persistent cold obviously increases out chances of getting that one good storm. I agree with you 100%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think the odds of us entering some grand snow pattern anytime soon have dwindled way down. The pattern is changing and we're getting into the coldest part of the year. We'll have chances and we'll get snow. But anything resembling a fabulous, textbook winter storm pattern in the SE looks to be increasingly difficult to come by.it does for the next couple weeks but we will have chance and hopefully a good 6 week pattern can lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 When was the last time we had a "good " pattern lock in for an extended period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 When was the last time we had a "good " pattern lock in for an extended period?2009/10!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 2009/10!?that really did not come until mid late January. Yeah we had the big dec storm but we had a huge February/March that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 it does for the next couple weeks but we will have chance and hopefully a good 6 week pattern can lock in. I would settle for a 7-10 day period of -AO/-NAO, hard to imagine a good pattern locking in. The weeklies look like more of the same, -EPO, cold dumps in west and tries to move east. Still have remanant of the PV over Greenland so +NAO. Hard to imagine any blocking this winter, we havent had it, the models are skyrocketing the AO in the near, medium and long term. MJO has been persistently stuck in 4-5, EPS sends it to COD then back to 4-5 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 CPC 6-10 day temps look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Love how when the weeklies come out there are about 50 different interpretations of them.... Kinda funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 When was the last time we had a "good " pattern lock in for an extended period?Depending on the meaning of extended, arguably last year. It may not have been a classic setup, but it produced. The March setup was especially great and stayed that way for the majority of the month.The truth is that we never get truly extended month-long wintry setups without some breaks in between. We live in the South. 2009-2010 had some torching, IIRC, and I want to say that winter was basically over after the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Love how when the weeklies come out there are about 50 different interpretations of them.... Kinda funny Some people take them verbatim and that's fine I guess but people forget what the weeklies are, extended ensemble runs...I feel like people think it literally tells the future for the month, like it's some crystal ball. It's far from that, especially when they Euro ensembles are struggling like they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS/GEFS MJO EURO MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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