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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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 Consistent with the above 12Z EPS maps, the new Euro weeklies (based on the Mon 0Z EPS extension) look very sweet for week 3 and much colder than the week 3 of last Thursday's run (same period, 1/26-2/1). By the looks of that week 3 as well as the 12Z EPS, the last week of Jan into the first few days of Feb could be fab, indeed, with overrunning potential. Precip. is near normal, which is plenty wet enough especially at this time of year. That is 0.75"-1.25" in many inland areas, plenty wet enough for something really sweet. (Week 4 still looks warm, but who cares right now? Focus on week 3.)

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Well color me surprised that no one commented on models last night...seriously. GFS, GFS ENS, and the GFS PARA all look downright tasty in the LR. Great signals showing up. Euro also looks like a big change is coming at the end of it's run. EPS also looks great for shots of winter weather with the overall pattern. 6z GFS looks good while the 6z PARA is good at the very end of it's run. In fact both the OP GFS runs look good just after 240. 

We may finally start to see some consistency with the models and if we continue to see blocking well bombs away. 

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Well color me surprised that no one commented on models last night...seriously. GFS, GFS ENS, and the GFS PARA all look downright tasty in the LR. Great signals showing up. Euro also looks like a big change is coming at the end of it's run. EPS also looks great for shots of winter weather with the overall pattern. 6z GFS looks good while the 6z PARA is good at the very end of it's run. In fact both the OP GFS runs look good just after 240. 

We may finally start to see some consistency with the models and if we continue to see blocking well bombs away. 

 

 

I think we have all looked at that 240+ hour range so much our eyes hurt.

 

It's like seeing the pretty girl in 8th grade looking at you from across the room... could my dreams come true?   No.  She's looking at the guy behind you.

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I think we have all looked at that 240+ hour range so much our eyes hurt.

 

It's like seeing the pretty girl in 8th grade looking at you from across the room... could my dreams come true?   No.  She's looking at the guy behind you.

 

I don't blame you. I think though that based on what Webber, Iso, DT and host of other more knowledgeable mets have been saying about late Jan. it should be peaking our interest. Right on cue we see the models starting to get a much better look overall. Blocking some -NAO (from what it looked like to me anyways), -AO and a neutral to +PNA forcing cold air into the east.  It can easily change of course and give us a "gotcha"....but I at least like the looks and the change makes sense from a global weather perspective. 

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Agree Burger.  I guess everyone is focused on the short time ice event.

 

The old GFS is saying farewell to thee on a positive note.  Last nights run and the 6z were about as pretty as it can get. The 6z even more than the 0z.

 

Great ridging out west with a deep trough in the east with overrunning.  Thank ya sir I will keep it.

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I think we have all looked at that 240+ hour range so much our eyes hurt.

 

It's like seeing the pretty girl in 8th grade looking at you from across the room... could my dreams come true?   No.  She's looking at the guy behind you.

 

 

I don't blame you. I think though that based on what Webber, Iso, DT and host of other more knowledgeable mets have been saying about late Jan. it should be peaking our interest. Right on cue we see the models starting to get a much better look overall. Blocking some -NAO (from what it looked like to me anyways), -AO and a neutral to +PNA forcing cold air into the east.  It can easily change of course and give us a "gotcha"....but I at least like the looks and the change makes sense from a global weather perspective. 

I certainly think if we can reel in the "look" of a much better pattern to within 7 days and then find a storm to finally track, the board may take off for the first time this winter.

 

Most indications seem to be pointing toward a period we can actually get excited about beyond day 9.

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Any implication with this or is this just one of those things where it's nice to say, "I was alive when the PDO hit an all-time record high for December"?

 

This should be a cold rest of the winter and active.  If we get a -AO then we will be OK, if we get a -AO/-NAO we will need to buy a shovel.  If we get a +AO then we will be dealing with more of this crap.

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Problem is the GFS has a nice looking pattern starting around say ten and the upgrades pattern does not look too good. So we are gonna get sucked on the last few runs of the GFS and then when para goes operational it's going to take it all away

 

The para ensembles are very cold day 9+.  Still a +NAO though

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This should be a cold rest of the winter and active.  If we get a -AO then we will be OK, if we get a -AO/-NAO we will need to buy a shovel.  If we get a +AO then we will be dealing with more of this crap.

 

The AO on the CPC page still shows the consensus of members going negative, although they do not appear to be as negative as they did yesterday.  Very good agreement on the PNA going neutral and maybe negative.  The NAO looks to fall to neutral.  The MJO is looking to still pass through Phase 7, while losing amplitude and heading either into the COD from 7 or making it into 8 and then into the COD, depending on which model you look at.  All in all, things seem to be heading generally in a good direction.  Hopefully, someone doesn't throw the switch and send the train down a different track.

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The AO on the CPC page still shows the consensus of members going negative, although they do not appear to be as negative as they did yesterday.  Very good agreement on the PNA going neutral and maybe negative.  The NAO looks to fall to neutral.  The MJO is looking to still pass through Phase 7, while losing amplitude and heading either into the COD from 7 or making it into 8 and then into the COD, depending on which model you look at.  All in all, things seem to be heading generally in a good direction.  Hopefully, someone doesn't throw the switch and send the train down a different track.

 

This is how I saw the overnight runs of the GEFS.  The AO seems to go negative overall with higher heights around the pole, but the ridge placement is way too west IMO and still no blocking in the Atlantic.  Better I guess, but my hopes are not up. 

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WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 23m23 minutes ago

Over half of the 0Z ECMWF ensemble members favor cross polar flow during the 11-15 day period. #Cold end to January

 

Don't say we didn't warn you :)....I know an SE ridge comment is coming...it won't be there.

post-785-0-36937300-1421159642_thumb.png

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WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 23m23 minutes ago

Over half of the 0Z ECMWF ensemble members favor cross polar flow during the 11-15 day period. #Cold end to January

 

Don't say we didn't warn you :)....I know an SE ridge comment is coming...it won't be there.

Got to love SE ridges, staple of this winter. Can we not get lower heights into the Atlantic, wait, that would require a -NAO. More rain then cold then warm then rain...get used to it. Maybe a minor ice event in Feb like we will get tomorrow.

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WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 23m23 minutes ago

Over half of the 0Z ECMWF ensemble members favor cross polar flow during the 11-15 day period. #Cold end to January

 

Don't say we didn't warn you :)....I know an SE ridge comment is coming...it won't be there.

 

That map looks strikingly like the CFS temp distribution for Feb.  Also, the ridge out west better not be that far west.  That would not be good.

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Got to love SE ridges, staple of this winter. Can we not get lower heights into the Atlantic, wait, that would require a -NAO. More rain then cold then warm then rain...get used to it. Maybe a minor ice event in Feb like we will get tomorrow.

That's the 23rd through the 28th, though, so it somewhat tells a lie on the SE ridge. By the amount of cold to the north by the 28th the ridge will no longer be there. Something similar we saw play out on the models earlier for our cold influx. I really like Febuary but especially Feb 10-16th time period for a nor'easter. Just my huntch watching seasonals and overall setup. I don't think we'll only get ovrruning ice all winter. The pattern we'll be headed into for Feb is a snow producing pattern, whether or not people interpret it that way, that's my interpretation.

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That's the 23rd through the 28th, though, so it somewhat tells a lie on the SE ridge. By the amount of cold to the north by the 28th the ridge will no longer be there. Something similar we saw play out on the models earlier for our cold influx. I really like Febuary but especially Feb 10-16th time period for a nor'easter. Just my huntch watching seasonals and overall setup. I don't think we'll only get ovrruning ice all winter. The pattern we'll be headed into for Feb is a snow producing pattern, whether or not people interpret it that way, that's my interpretation.

I was 100% joking...we get the blocking the EPS is showing we should be good. I think will see the EPS get stronger with the -AO as we approach Feb.

I wonder if we lose the GEFS tomorrow and have to wait for the GEFS-para.

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