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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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Can't remember for sure but I think we said TWC uses GFS for their online forecasts. For Fri through the following Wed they have GSP with highs in the upper 50s everyday with lows in the mid to upper 30s with even a 41 thrown in there. That puts us in the latter third of Jan with NADA on the radar if correct.

The signs are there! Models looking good past 240, and February is a coming!
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The signs are there! Models looking good past 240, and February is a coming!

 

Well on the GFS from twisterdata I don't see any good surface temps until 300 hrs. Here is the best one I see at hr 348 :lmao::axe:  Unfortunately, there is a high over LA and the big bomb is over the NE!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=18&fhour=348&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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WSI Energy Weather (@WSI_Energy)

1/11/15, 21:24

Big stratospheric warming has been unsuccessful in impacting troposphere #stratfail

pic.twitter.com/jVuLYKG4ClGSkD0y0.jpg

Based on my own criteria, I'm calling this only a moderate SW. The max anomaly got to ~+20. Getting to +20 is nothing unusual based on looking back to 1979. l consider +28+ as strong/major.

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Ensembles continue to show high latitude blocking developing.

 

00z GFS and the 6z PARA look about the same in the LR. Blocking finally showing up with energy coming out of the west...a very blockbusterish look. Just wish we could get more consistency on this. Looks similar to what was showing up a few weeks ago. Again my only problem is that the models "sniffed" out a big pattern change that really never happened before and models still seem to be flipping a lot, but I'll take the 6z PARA and cash out if it is correct .

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I'm very optimistic about where we are headed... MJO wave should give us a big Alaskan ridge according to some mets in the know.  They say this will supply a cold shot in the last third of the month.

 

The AO looks to go negative, the PNA looks to hover neutral, and the AO looks to stay slightly positive.   The NAO not cooperating could be a killer but I think we can work with the other indices.

 

post-2727-0-05964400-1421078996_thumb.gi

 

post-2727-0-37331100-1421079004_thumb.gi

 

post-2727-0-82360000-1421079019_thumb.gi

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The 12z GFS looks horrific through the entire run. I know it's unlikely to be right. But this winter is reminding me so much of the horrible winter a couple years ago when we didn't even have fantasy storms to track.

Are you speaking of the 2011-12 winter ? This winter does remind me a lot of that winter and that winter was the all time worst winter in my lifetime.

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I'm very optimistic about where we are headed... MJO wave should give us a big Alaskan ridge according to some mets in the know.  They say this will supply a cold shot in the last third of the month.

 

The AO looks to go negative, the PNA looks to hover neutral, and the AO looks to stay slightly positive.   The NAO not cooperating could be a killer but I think we can work with the other indices.

 

attachicon.gifao_sprd2.gif

 

attachicon.gifpna_sprd2.gif

 

attachicon.gifnao_sprd2.gif

I'm pretty optimistic as well, but I'm always optimistic I guess.

 

You see some of the hints on control runs, which I find it funny when people laugh at control runs...last year the Euro control sniffed out the cold shot before most models.

 

Check this out from last year's cold shot...

 

Here's the ensemble mean out 312 hours

gefs_z500anom_nh_53.png

 

now the control for the same time period

gefs_z500anom_c_nh_53.png

 

Now on to the Euro....

 

ensemble

nk2j6bd.png

control

fbly1xj.png

 

Which did better here in the LR? Control or mean?

 

Fast forward to present time....GEFS control

Jp6BC1j.png

KsFGjTd.png

 

Basically cold with a s/w basically in mexico about to tap the gulf and give us fireworks...

 

GEFS mean

xNLguGY.png

 

I wanted to post the Euro but I ran out of image space. Basically, don't ignore 300+ model images just because it's 300+ hours out. I see a lot of people laughing at the Day 10+ range but when you see a signal like this, there's a reason a lot of people are focused at the end of the month/early Feb time period. So just because the control shows something that the OP or the mean might not, it's still helpful to look at.

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12z GEFS looks nothing like the OP

 

It's a darn good thing!

 

Are you speaking of the 2011-12 winter ? This winter does remind me a lot of that winter and that winter was the all time worst winter in my lifetime.

Yeah, I think that was it. I know we're comparing apples and oranges between the two winters, but so far, we've had about as much tangible success, in terms of snow/wintry weather.

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My biggest issue is still the lack of consistency in the LR. We can't seem to get three runs in a row where it shows the same look on a consistent basis. It seems with actual pattern changes you can get this. I do think the end of Jan and into Feb. will be a much better setup, it just sucks we basically have to be content to wait on that. Hopefully this storm on Thurs/Fri can overperform and give someone in the SE a little surprise. 

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Larry, that was a good tease...lol

 

Chris,

  I have a feeling that you'll be smiling when you make tonight's video. What's not to like about the 12Z EPS 11-15? Nice -AO and neutral to possibly even a slight -NAO. Very nice western ridging bringing in the Arctic fun to our north while WSW 500 mb flow keeps moisture nearby for potential mischief underneath any Arctic high. :)

 Looks splitflowish as opposed to an Arctic plunge, which are usually dry. So, the folks here should like this.  :)

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Chris,

  I have a feeling that you'll be smiling when you make tonight's video. What's not to like about the 12Z EPS 11-15? Nice -AO and neutral to possibly even a slight -NAO. Very nice western ridging bringing in the Arctic fun to our north while WSW 500 mb flow keeps moisture nearby for potential mischief underneath any Arctic high. :)

 Looks splitflowish as opposed to an Arctic plunge, which are usually dry. So, the folks here should like this.  :)

nice...I just wish there was a site I could show that map from.  Do you know of one?

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Folks,

 Check out the 12Z EPS 11-15. smile.png

 

Nice step from last night as well with ridge/trough placement. Still not optimal for the east but it's a great run. A lot of people are probably going to fall in love with today's weeklies run too. Not that it matters what they say but at least they'll be pretty to look at. 

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nice...I just wish there was a site I could show that map from.  Do you know of one?

 

I had to 1st get permission from my provider since it is a pay site. He gave me the ok to do it this time. BRB

 

 

From MDA/Eartsat with their permission to post these, here's the 12Z EPS 360 hour map at 500 mb:

post-882-0-60529200-1421099774_thumb.png

 

 

 Here's the precip./850 mb: look at the moisture streaming in from the moist WSW flow over the Arctic air.

post-882-0-99021900-1421099966_thumb.png

 

N Hem 500 mb anomalies: see the -EPO/-AO blocks and some Greenland blocking, too: (don't worry about the slightly above normal hts in the SE as that wouldn't be unusual in an overrunning setup)

post-882-0-29121200-1421100206_thumb.png

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