mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 6z GFS was pretty meh, at best! Yes Sunday looks like a ton of cold rain, Wed, yes freezing drizzle , looking on track . But don't give up hope, the 21st-23rd has two chances, too early for details, but 21st is cold chasing moisture , 23rd has just rain, but nice storm track, the cold will trend as we get closer, and then it's almost February ! Winning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GEFS still suggests the AO will likely plunge into negative territory after about day 10. We'll see. The correlation through day 10 has been good but the day 14 corr. is quite low. Day 10 mean is still modestly + but then it plunges just afterward to -. It seems to be moving up in time: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO is fcast to get down to a modest positive but not get down to 0 at least through day 14: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif The 0z GEFS was one of the best signals for a -AO I've seen with only 3/21 members showing a neutral or +AO. I mean it's a pretty good fantasy look for the end of January. I know people are going to say "you know it's bad when people are posting the 366hr GEFS" but there have been some fantasy blocking OP runs so here's just some visual to the graphs above. This is a pretty recent development since 06z runs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro is showing a solid .1 to .15 of freezing rain Tuesday night/wednesday morning for the Triangle. Temps 29-31. That is based purely on isentroipic lift, aka gom warmth overriding the cold air damming. This is when the HP will be in the best position for the wedge. I think that portion of all this is pretty set in stone. That will clear out by Wednesday Night and the second/main stj wave will eject out. The euro is a partial phase with a pj wave which results in a storm too far offshore. Looking at the 6 hr maps at 5h, it's not far at all from being a bigger deal (aka more fully phased situation). Several days left to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Thanks Brandon. It's a somewhat long shot, but it's the only one we've had all winter. It's doable but also will require the thread the needle luck. Don't know what will take more luck the panthers or our weather Thursday to get the results we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 RAH the opposite of bullish on this event which is understandable at this time period. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT ASTRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A MINOR S/W LIFTING EAST-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A DECENTCHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTOTHURSDAY. A MODERATING AIR MASS AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM A PARENTHIGH OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH (1030MB OR HIGHER) TO OUR NORTH-NESUGGEST THAT ANY RESIDUAL COLD AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW. WHILECANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...MORE THAN LIKELY THIS EVENTWILL BE ALL LIQUID. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GEFS still suggests the AO will likely plunge into negative territory after about day 10. We'll see. The correlation through day 10 has been good but the day 14 corr. is quite low. Day 10 mean is still modestly + but then it plunges just afterward to -. It seems to be moving up in time: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO is fcast to get down to a modest positive but not get down to 0 at least through day 14: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif I really think by the middle of next week, most will be really excited about late Jan/early Feb. At least from the teleconnections side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Thanks Brandon. It's a somewhat long shot, but it's the only one we've had all winter. It's doable but also will require the thread the needle luck. Don't know what will take more luck the panthers or our weather Thursday to get the results we want. No prob. The euro is not far at all from a phase. It wouldn't take much to turn this into a snow solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Wakefield discussion for South Central VA (and north central NC)...any good news?.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE COASTAL LOW JUST OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND THE MID ATLANTIC COASTGETS PULLED OUT TO SEA MON NIGHT BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMSWINGING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSUREBUILDING DOWN INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS. AS PRECIPEXITS THE REGION AND COLDER AIR RETURNS FROM THE NW (LOWS MID-UPPER20S NW TO MID-UPPER 30S SE)...THERE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FORA WINTRY MIX LATE MON EVENING INTO TUE MORNING (MAINLY ALONG ANDWEST OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO RICHMOND TO EMPORIA). 12Z BUFKITSOUNDINGS SUPPORT SLEET OVER FREEZING RAIN ATTM BUT WILL NEED TOMONITOR CLOSELY SINCE BETTER MIXING (SEE NEXT FEW SENTENCES) COULDPROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MELTING. THE PRESSUREGRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS MON NIGHT WITH BREEZY N WINDS OF 10-15MPHDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY ON TUEAS A SFC CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUEAND REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S-MID 40S SOUTH(UPPER 40S FAR SE IN NE NC)...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL NORTH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOUTH. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THELOW-MID 20S NW TO LOW-MID 30S...WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TOUPPER 30S SE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSSTHE AREA ON WED AND THEN POSSIBLY GET SHUNTED SWD AS AN UPPERLEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS THU AND DIGS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGIONTHROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. WITH THE SFC CAD WEDGE IN PLACEWED/WED NIGHT...WENT WITH A WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE SFC CAD WEDGE TOFULLY ERODE SO KEPT WITH A SNOW...RAIN/SNOW...RAIN PRECIP TYPEDURING THIS TIME. TEMPS MODIFY SLIGHTLY THU/FRI BUT WILL BEDIFFICULT TO FULLY WARM SINCE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUE TOSPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N. HIGHS THU IN THE 40S...FRI INTHE LOW-MID 40S. LOWS THU/FRI NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TOLOW-MID 30S SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 From years of reading NWS discussions, RAH is always very very conservative on things. Fishel on WRAL is the same until about 48 hours out... I often wonder how much they collaborate with each other because I know there is mutual respect there. With regards to the forecast this coming week, I definitely think the highest impact for the triangle (as of now) is Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. I just worry about QPF and the placement of the high. I know they look "ideal" as of now, but I am going to keep on eye on that as we get closer. I'm thinking we warm up quite a bit in the next 1-2 weeks and then cool off again by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Solid frzn on Wed morning for central NC on GFS .3-.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Solid frzn on Wed morning for central NC on GFS .3-.4". Yea gfs is about twice what the euro is showing for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. not quite as cold as the euro. still freezing rain though. that would be a nasty little icestorm. anything over .3 and trees start to come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Strong low off the coast Thursday , but too warm! Maybe it can trend colder!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What an absolutely gorgeous track for that low. That's about perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yea gfs is about twice what the euro is showing for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. not quite as cold as the euro. still freezing rain though. that would be a nasty little icestorm. anything over .3 and trees start to come down. Not to mention, the ground is already moist. Lots of trees fell here in Kernersville and Winston the other night during all of that strong wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What an absolutely gorgeous track for that low. That's about perfect! which one? the 15th system I'm assuming? (this is why we need separate threads) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 RDU looks really icy. GFS would have central NC with more that 24 hours of wintery p-types(light or moderate). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_090_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150110+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I just started a thread for the Tuesday/Wednesday freezing rain threat. It's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I just started a thread for the Tuesday/Wednesday freezing rain threat. It's time.Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 which one? the 15th system I'm assuming? (this is why we need separate threads) It's the one after the freezing rain threat. I'm not at the computer anymore but it think, yeah, the one on the 15th. It takes a great track from the eastern gulf to off of the eastern FL/GA coast, developing and moving NNE from there. But like Mack said, the mid levels are too warm. So is the surface , probably, but I didn't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The Thursday system has to be colder ! If you look between Wed night and Thursday , you can see a high in the Ohio valley, and a wedge signature show up, then by Thursday , the high dissapears!!?? If we take a blend of the colder Euro and robust precip of GFS , we will be in business . Call it wish casting if you will, but lots of options. Plus if we got any freezing rain on Wed, that should keep temps a few degrees lower for the Thursday storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, Mack, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to trend colder. That logic works in the other direction too, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What an absolutely gorgeous track for that low. That's about perfect! The 12z Para just has cold/dry. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 12z Para just has cold/dry. LOL. I hope it's wrong. But that would mean it's worse than the regular GFS, which is bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Just got to look at the GFS....I agree about the track of the low. The biggest problem I see is that pesky low in the lakes that is always the snow blocker for us. The Euro is allowing a nice high to slide in where that low is on the GFS to help funnel in more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 11-15 GFS continues to look nice with a combo of the return of W ridging and increased upper lat. blocking. By that time, models suggest that the MJO may be in the favorable phases near or within the COD. Keep in mind that climo for late Jan. sees an increase in major wintry precip. frequency. As a result of all of this, we may very well be finally seeing an exciting pattern starting within about the next two weeks. Keep watching the GEFS day 10 AO prog as it has had a high correlation to reality. The weak Niño -high end neutral pos./strong +PDO will hopefully finally start paying off with wintry in addition to strong cold. There's no need to dwell on negativity so relatively early in the active wintry part of the season IMO. The lack of sig wintry precip to this point outside of 11/1 has a low correlation to the prospects for sig wintry precip for the rest of winter. I'm sure Webber will agree with this. Climo definitely says this. You can't have winter weather in winter, until winter gets going good I think it's going now, but I'm so confused about how you can have warmer cold rain, I may be off a bit. I do know that 1035 cad highs will make for colder cold rain, so we've got a widow, if some rain appears, and since it's in Texas, and tends to move east, I think the window is starting to open...and that's where the "warmer" cold rain starts to confound me Now if we are talking warmer cold rain from Cold Rain, but I'd conclude he's making yellow snow again, but.... well, it's all so inconclusive! Is it cold rain we are talking about or Cold Rain? And anyway when did the big storm hit in 1940? Later than now, right? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So far Euro looks faster with the southern wave...no real northern energy to phase with. This one looks like it's going to be more of a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks almost identical at 5h to the 12z run of the GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 west coast ridge is a little taller, tick further west, the trough is a little sharper, a touch stronger, should be a little better than 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro is much colder at the surface compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 west coast ridge is a little taller, tick further west, the trough is a little sharper, a touch stronger, should be a little better than 0z run Still wish we could get that northern stream faster so we could get a good phase. Might still look descent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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