deltadog03 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Anytime the train is running just to the south, with super cold on top of us, there's chances. I love this pattern. I hope it goes the rest of the winter I've had several virga bursts, and like with smoke and fire, where there's virga, there's moisture, lol. I think we'll get some ice, or something down here on the southside with that rain running under us like this. Just need the wet part to move up a bit higher, and it will if the precip increases Just need that cold to erode slowly. Tony I agree...I can see that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 00z GFS wet with Sun-Mon system, monster 1047 high in plains Monday , maybe setting stage for Wednesday !? Edit: Wed gonna be a little icy, not quite showing and moisture is light, but sig is there and high in perfect position in upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 00z GFS wet with Sun-Mon system, monster 1047 high in plains Monday , maybe setting stage for Wednesday !? There's a weak lead wave in the subtropical jet that runs into the damming high producing some light icing Tues night into Wed morning. Looks like the GFS is up to its antics again of shearing out the main wave in the southwest states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 superjames gets a little ice, but it's mainly a cold rain on Wed night - Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 superjames gets a little ice, but it's mainly a cold rain on Wed night - Thurs 1"+ qpf of mid 30's and rain. Just have to love it, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 1"+ qpf of mid 30's and rain. Just have to love it, LOL. So how do we get it colder? 1) Arctic high is colder than modeled 2) Get a strong northern stream phase These are in the realm of possibility, but not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So how do we get it colder? 1) Arctic high is colder than modeled 2) Get a strong northern stream phase These are in the realm of possibility, but not likely Low track looks good, no high to be found though! And I think number 1 will happen!Snowcover for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 There's a weak lead wave in the subtropical jet that runs into the damming high producing some light icing Tues night into Wed morning. Looks like the GFS is up to its antics again of shearing out the main wave in the southwest states. It's not a bad system on the GFS, it really phases nicely, cuts off eventually once it's past us. I would like to see what would happen if it ejects everything and the phase was quicker....wish casting FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Low track looks good, no high to be found though! And I think number 1 will happen! Snowcover for the win! It's not a bad system on the GFS, it really phases nicely, cuts off eventually once it's past us. I would like to see what would happen if it ejects everything and the phase was quicker....wish casting FTW. I'm curious about the lead wave scenario of precip streaming out ahead of the main wave in the southwest flow and into the damming high for Tues-Wed. The models aren't keying on that too much, but it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's not a bad system on the GFS, it really phases nicely, cuts off eventually once it's past us. I would like to see what would happen if it ejects everything and the phase was quicker....wish casting FTW. Why do we not think the surface will be colder than it's showing now? These things usually turn out colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The Para is again close, but no cigar. A nice, cold rain. There's a lot of time for this to change for the better... or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Why do we not think the surface will be colder than it's showing now? These things usually turn out colder. That's your expertise Cold Rain, preach it! I don't know, I just tend to really question cold air supply in these parts after a lifetime of temp fails....I don't question it for Tues-Wed though if there is precip...solid damming setup then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, the HP is pulling out as our storm is moving in. If the HP moves out slower or the storm moves in faster, we would be in better shape. As is, there might be some in-situ CAD, but that won't keep you below freezing very long usually. I guess we'd be better off with a stronger LP at this point to hopefully pull some colder air down as it rounds the bend, but I'm not sure really. I can absolutely buy low to mid 30s with rain. It happens a lot in CAD-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The Para is again close, but no cigar. A nice, cold rain. There's a lot of time for this to change for the better... or worse. Can it get worse? Not much worse than it shows, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, the HP is pulling out as our storm is moving in. If the HP moves out slower or the storm moves in faster, we would be in better shape. As is, there might be some in-situ CAD, but that won't keep you below freezing very long usually. I guess we'd be better off with a stronger LP at this point to hopefully pull some colder air down as it rounds the bend, but I'm not sure really. I can absolutely buy low to mid 30s with rain. It happens a lot in CAD-land. Cutoff FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Can it get worse? Not much worse than it shows, LOL. I don't know... I guess it could be a warmer rain... though that's not necessarily worse. The Para and old GFS actually handle the system pretty differently. The Para slides basically eastward out to sea whereas the old GFS rounds the bend some. The 18z Para did round the bend, so I'm not sure if it's just a blip or a bad trend. I'm just having a hard time getting on board, even with the EPS screaming for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I don't know... I guess it could be a warmer rain... though that's not necessarily worse. The Para and old GFS actually handle the system pretty differently. The Para slides basically eastward out to sea whereas the old GFS rounds the bend some. The 18z Para did round the bend, so I'm not sure if it's just a blip or a bad trend. And to think, next week at this time it will only be the Para. I already miss the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 That's your expertise Cold Rain, preach it! I don't know, I just tend to really question cold air supply in these parts after a lifetime of temp fails....I don't question it for Tues-Wed though if there is precip...solid damming setup then. Yeah, I hear ya....I'm not looking at the data right now. But if the damming is solid, temps will be too warm at this range. If it's insitu or not strong, then yeah, 35 and rain it is. Guess we'll have to wait longer and see which scenario we're dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 And to think, next week at this time it will only be the Para. I already miss the old GFS. One good thing is that we can start making up new, fictitious biases for the Para to wishcast storms in the medium range. The 18z NAVGEM was looking pretty terrible, not that anyone cares and like it matters at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, I hear ya....I'm not looking at the data right now. But if the damming is solid, temps will be too warm at this range. If it's insitu or not strong, then yeah, 35 and rain it is. Guess we'll have to wait longer and see which scenario we're dealing with.Dynamical cooling will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 BTW, the French site that has the fastest GGEM maps now has the maps available for North America specifically. This is very nice as you used to have to look at the entire Northern Hemisphere to see our neck of the woods, which was a PITA. Meteociel always has the maps for the GGEM and the UKMET faster than anywhere else I've seen by quite a bit. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=3&archive=0 The maps are kind of lousy, but they're definitely better than those awful black-and-white maps that the GGEM has. It also has maps for the GFS, Euro, etc. It looks like the GGEM is going to at least give us a storm this run, which is more than past runs had (dry). EDIT: well, it's marginally better, but it still is pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Interested to see what the ukie shows. Weathernc posted a study a few years ago and it had the highest skill set verefication verse other models in sniffing out phasers. Just to cure my curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Why do we not think the surface will be colder than it's showing now? These things usually turn out colder. It does when the atmosphere is dry. Not so much in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 11-15 GFS continues to look nice with a combo of the return of W ridging and increased upper lat. blocking. By that time, models suggest that the MJO may be in the favorable phases near or within the COD. Keep in mind that climo for late Jan. sees an increase in major wintry precip. frequency. As a result of all of this, we may very well be finally seeing an exciting pattern starting within about the next two weeks. Keep watching the GEFS day 10 AO prog as it has had a high correlation to reality. The weak Niño -high end neutral pos./strong +PDO will hopefully finally start paying off with wintry in addition to strong cold. There's no need to dwell on negativity so relatively early in the active wintry part of the season IMO. The lack of sig wintry precip to this point outside of 11/1 has a low correlation to the prospects for sig wintry precip for the rest of winter. I'm sure Webber will agree with this. Climo definitely says this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Interested to see what the ukie shows. Weathernc posted a study a few years ago and it had the highest skill set verefication verse other models in sniffing out phasers. Just to cure my curiosity. Here is the 00z Ukie at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 00z Euro does give some light icing to some CAD regions early on the 14th. It is cold enough for snow for much of NC and some of SC/GA for the "main storm", but precip stays south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 On a positive note. Just as we got stuck in a bad trend for over a month, on the flip side we can have just the opposite happen. Seems to be that kind of winter. Only takes 3 weeks of consistency for things to trend our way and produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Heck what's happening we're not getting the fantasy storms 10 days out like we use to. R the models that much better so they don't show those fantasy storms? Starting to get a little restless needless to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 How about that epic overnight EPS run? Or the 6z GFS? It's going to be a good time actually reeling in one of these threats over the next couple of weeks. Right? #wishfulthinking #fingerscrossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GEFS still suggests the AO will likely plunge into negative territory after about day 10. We'll see. The correlation through day 10 has been good but the day 14 corr. is quite low. Day 10 mean is still modestly + but then it plunges just afterward to -. It seems to be moving up in time: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO is fcast to get down to a modest positive but not get down to 0 at least through day 14: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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