deltadog03 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Hell, I am going to enjoy my 35-38 degree day on Sunday with some light rain and drizzle!! wooohoooo. The NAM wants to really drop it down to sub 35...ewwwwwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Thanks Bob! Yeah, lot of members showing wintery (ice/snow) hits. But, the Euro hasn't had 2 runs in a row that have been consistent yet. The EPS is sure trying to bring the cold back in a hurry. Just after day 10 you see it trying to build a trough in the east and with his propensity for leaving cold in the west it actually get's stuck in central US. The ridging in the west with -EPO is showing up really strong and it's building it across the pole. Also, no SE ridge on there either. The +NAO is never going away, the Greenland low is a staple of this winter, ugghh. Euro was a notable step towards the 12z gefs. I think the "relax" is going to end up being nothing more than a 3-4 day typical spell before a cutter/cold front. Then game back on. NAO is a royal PITA but at least all guidance is pointing towards a neutral or negative ao in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro was a notable step towards the 12z gefs. I think the "relax" is going to end up being nothing more than a 3-4 day typical spell before a cutter/cold front. Then game back on. NAO is a royal PITA but at least all guidance is pointing towards a neutral or negative ao in the future. Going to be very difficult to get +climo snow without a -NAO. Maybe you guys can get away it during the 2nd half of winter but we will need a stout -AO in Feb to even hit climo, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I don't have a lot of hope on this Jan 15 storm. Next week or two looks rather ho hum. I see the last week or 10 days of January being the time when things really kick up and finally get some real blocking setting up. I am not giving up that something can pop for the 15th. Southern branch stuff can often throw forecasting for a loop and even though temps are borderline for many I think it should be watched. I agree that we see late blocking this year, although admittedly seeing vortex after vortex sit and spin in Greenland, I am not confident AT ALL that will be correct. What do you see that gives you confidence, a gut feeling...... or are you just going on past analogs for a weak Nino mostly having late season blocking episodes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I don't have a lot of hope on this Jan 15 storm. Next week or two looks rather ho hum. I see the last week or 10 days of January being the time when things really kick up and finally get some real blocking setting up. When you've been alone in Mom's basement for awhile you're willing to accept that date to the prom that mind end up being a giant prank. Just the risk you take. As for the bolded I am hoping against hope that this is the case. Starting to get late in the game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Going to be very difficult to get +climo snow without a -NAO. Maybe you guys can get away it during the 2nd half of winter but we will need a stout -AO in Feb to even hit climo, IMO.Heh, I stopped worrying about climo+ once late Dec/early Jan failed. One event at a time is all I care about. I don't think the nao plays nearly as much of a role as the ao/pna does for standard modest events. A big +nao causes all kinds of issues but inside of +1/-1 is serviceable and I'm pretty sure that's the case for you guys. Get some heights building around the pole and a +pna and the pv itself will act as a block to keep things from cutting. If the gefs has the right idea then things will get busy around here in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I am not giving up that something can pop for the 15th. Southern branch stuff can often throw forecasting for a loop and even though temps are borderline for many I think it should be watched. I agree that we see late blocking this year, although admittedly seeing vortex after vortex sit and spin in Greenland, I am not confident AT ALL that will be correct. What do you see that gives you confidence, a gut feeling...... or are you just going on past analogs for a weak Nino mostly having late season blocking episodes? A bit of all of the above plus the models seem to be in a general agreement with above normal Hts over the arctic. This relax period may be the spark to set it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Hell, I am going to enjoy my 35-38 degree day on Sunday with some light rain and drizzle!! wooohoooo. The NAM wants to really drop it down to sub 35...ewwwwwww The nam is suggesting the potential for some actual ice accumulation. here is the nam soundings for my location starting at hour 48. Plenty of room for evaporational cooling with wetbulbs solidly below freezing NAM Text Sounding | 18 UTC Sun 11 Jan 2015 | PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1006.2 228 0.9 -6.6 57 2.3 42 5 -1.5 1.3 273.6 280.1 274.0 1000.0 278 0.1 -7.9 55 2.1 42 5 -2.4 0.4 273.2 279.3 273.6 975.0 479 -1.9 -9.3 57 2.0 55 8 -4.0 -1.6 273.2 278.8 273.6 950.0 687 1.4 -2.7 74 3.3 108 13 -0.1 2.0 278.6 288.0 279.2 925.0 905 6.5 6.4 99 6.6 172 10 6.5 7.6 286.0 304.5 287.1 900.0 1130 7.3 7.2 99 7.1 191 18 7.3 8.5 289.0 309.3 290.3 875.0 1362 8.0 7.7 98 7.6 189 32 7.9 9.3 292.1 314.0 By 54 hours/0z monday notice the nam does not show much cooling despite precip. Logic dictates there would be more than 0.3c cooling with dewpoints jumping 4c NAM Text Sounding | 00 UTC Mon 12 Jan 2015 | PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1004.7 228 0.4 -2.3 82 3.2 25 7 -0.6 0.9 273.2 282.1 273.7 1000.0 265 0.0 -2.7 82 3.1 25 7 -0.9 0.5 273.2 281.9 273.7 975.0 467 0.2 -2.9 80 3.2 43 17 -0.9 0.7 275.3 284.2 275.8 950.0 679 7.2 6.0 92 6.2 106 18 6.6 8.2 284.5 301.9 285.5 925.0 899 8.1 7.0 93 6.8 130 28 7.5 9.2 287.5 307.0 288.7 900.0 1127 9.7 9.6 99 8.4 149 35 9.7 11.2 291.5 315.6 293.0 875.0 1361 9.6 9.5 99 8.6 163 40 9.6 11.1 293.8 318.6 295.3 850.0 1602 9.2 9.1 99 8.6 185 38 9.2 10.7 295.8 320.9 297.3 825.0 1849 7.7 7.4 98 7.9 203 29 7.6 9.1 296.7 320.0 298.1 800.0 2103 5.9 5.7 99 7.3 211 23 5.8 7.1 297.4 318.8 By hour 57, it's 0.1c at the surface LOL By 60 hours, we see the nam with temps barely above freezing and dewpoints above freezing as well. NAM Text Sounding | 06 UTC Mon 12 Jan 2015 | PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1002.0 228 0.7 0.1 96 3.9 37 3 0.5 1.3 273.7 284.3 274.3 1000.0 244 0.5 -0.0 96 3.8 42 3 0.3 1.2 273.7 284.2 274.3 975.0 446 -0.2 -0.5 98 3.8 71 12 -0.3 0.4 274.9 285.4 275.5 950.0 655 6.1 6.1 100 6.3 142 23 6.1 7.2 283.4 300.9 284.4 925.0 878 13.5 13.3 99 10.5 184 36 13.4 15.3 293.1 323.2 294.9 900.0 1109 12.3 12.1 99 10.0 201 34 12.2 14.0 294.1 322.8 There is very strong waa above 950mb so the temps will warm to above freezing even if we manage to drop below it. However, by the time it does so I think there could be some advisory/ nuisance level ice accumulation over north and parts of central ga/south carolina (eventually parts of nc) IF there is enough precip before going to all rain pretty quickly. The biggest negative against it, assuming there is appreciable precip falling, is the depth or lack thereof of the near surface cold layer. Normally you want it to be at least 50mb deep But as you can see, it only goes up to below 950mb. That is narrow enough that indeed temps might not drop as much as one would think because that is an awful deep warm layer that rain is falling through and there is no CAA. So the rain itself could be warm enough to keep temps from dropping below freezing, despite having subfreezing wetbulbs initially. Combined with latent heat release/no CAA, It certainly would mean it would rise above freezing fairly quickly if we manage to drop below it. It should be noted though the gfs is much drier during this time frame and no where near cold enough. At least it's something to watch for though, even if it doesn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z has a descent ZR event for NC on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z GFS the sw is stronger and sharper than 12z but surface isn't reflecting it... Edit: Actually the surface is starting to reflect it now at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Hmm... the 18z GFS is looking more Euro-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It's a cold rain special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Hmm... the 18z GFS is looking more Euro-like. The southern piece needs to slow down or the northern piece needs to speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like the gfs is close to something big but will be just a bit too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The southern piece needs to slow down or the northern piece needs to speed up.or both, it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It did make a step towards the Euro but verbatim a cold rain. It's closer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It's a cold rain special Like cold rain or like snow for Cold Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Like cold rain or like snow for Cold Rain? Cold rain for cold rain. But it's a colder rain. It does start out as ice in the Triad, though. The Para is closer to the Euro, though not close enough. Verbatim, it's an awesome 33-degree rain here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Cold rain for cold rain. But it's a colder rain. It does start out as ice in the Triad, though. Thanks James. Colder rain is a start, I guess. Such a confusing user name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Speaking of cold rain: http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kipj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 And food for thought: Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) 1/9/15, 17:34 LR forecasting is based on what has already happened. It's flawed should the future's wx paradigm shift to something that was never in data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 And food for thought: Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) 1/9/15, 17:34 LR forecasting is based on what has already happened. It's flawed should the future's wx paradigm shift to something that was never in data. Is that a fancy way of saying the shortwave has not been sampled yet!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The nam is suggesting the potential for some actual ice accumulation. here is the nam soundings for my location starting at hour 48. Plenty of room for evaporational cooling with wetbulbs solidly below freezing NAM Text Sounding | 18 UTC Sun 11 Jan 2015 | PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1006.2 228 0.9 -6.6 57 2.3 42 5 -1.5 1.3 273.6 280.1 274.0 1000.0 278 0.1 -7.9 55 2.1 42 5 -2.4 0.4 273.2 279.3 273.6 975.0 479 -1.9 -9.3 57 2.0 55 8 -4.0 -1.6 273.2 278.8 273.6 950.0 687 1.4 -2.7 74 3.3 108 13 -0.1 2.0 278.6 288.0 279.2 925.0 905 6.5 6.4 99 6.6 172 10 6.5 7.6 286.0 304.5 287.1 900.0 1130 7.3 7.2 99 7.1 191 18 7.3 8.5 289.0 309.3 290.3 875.0 1362 8.0 7.7 98 7.6 189 32 7.9 9.3 292.1 314.0 By 54 hours/0z monday notice the nam does not show much cooling despite precip. Logic dictates there would be more than 0.3c cooling with dewpoints jumping 4c NAM Text Sounding | 00 UTC Mon 12 Jan 2015 | PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1004.7 228 0.4 -2.3 82 3.2 25 7 -0.6 0.9 273.2 282.1 273.7 1000.0 265 0.0 -2.7 82 3.1 25 7 -0.9 0.5 273.2 281.9 273.7 975.0 467 0.2 -2.9 80 3.2 43 17 -0.9 0.7 275.3 284.2 275.8 950.0 679 7.2 6.0 92 6.2 106 18 6.6 8.2 284.5 301.9 285.5 925.0 899 8.1 7.0 93 6.8 130 28 7.5 9.2 287.5 307.0 288.7 900.0 1127 9.7 9.6 99 8.4 149 35 9.7 11.2 291.5 315.6 293.0 875.0 1361 9.6 9.5 99 8.6 163 40 9.6 11.1 293.8 318.6 295.3 850.0 1602 9.2 9.1 99 8.6 185 38 9.2 10.7 295.8 320.9 297.3 825.0 1849 7.7 7.4 98 7.9 203 29 7.6 9.1 296.7 320.0 298.1 800.0 2103 5.9 5.7 99 7.3 211 23 5.8 7.1 297.4 318.8 By hour 57, it's 0.1c at the surface LOL By 60 hours, we see the nam with temps barely above freezing and dewpoints above freezing as well. NAM Text Sounding | 06 UTC Mon 12 Jan 2015 | PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1002.0 228 0.7 0.1 96 3.9 37 3 0.5 1.3 273.7 284.3 274.3 1000.0 244 0.5 -0.0 96 3.8 42 3 0.3 1.2 273.7 284.2 274.3 975.0 446 -0.2 -0.5 98 3.8 71 12 -0.3 0.4 274.9 285.4 275.5 950.0 655 6.1 6.1 100 6.3 142 23 6.1 7.2 283.4 300.9 284.4 925.0 878 13.5 13.3 99 10.5 184 36 13.4 15.3 293.1 323.2 294.9 900.0 1109 12.3 12.1 99 10.0 201 34 12.2 14.0 294.1 322.8 There is very strong waa above 950mb so the temps will warm to above freezing even if we manage to drop below it. However, by the time it does so I think there could be some advisory/ nuisance level ice accumulation over north and parts of central ga/south carolina (eventually parts of nc) IF there is enough precip before going to all rain pretty quickly. The biggest negative against it, assuming there is appreciable precip falling, is the depth or lack thereof of the near surface cold layer. Normally you want it to be at least 50mb deep But as you can see, it only goes up to below 950mb. That is narrow enough that indeed temps might not drop as much as one would think because that is an awful deep warm layer that rain is falling through and there is no CAA. So the rain itself could be warm enough to keep temps from dropping below freezing, despite having subfreezing wetbulbs initially. Combined with latent heat release/no CAA, It certainly would mean it would rise above freezing fairly quickly if we manage to drop below it. It should be noted though the gfs is much drier during this time frame and no where near cold enough. At least it's something to watch for though, even if it doesn't amount to much. I agree, I think there is a VERY small window that could make something very interesting around parts of GA. Depends on when the precip arrives.. your right, the depth of the layer of cold is very shallow, but man, the NAM should do the BEST with this setup. The 4KM shows the same thing, as you would expect. I also agree with you that there is some potential IF** anything can reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 A little bit of cold and moisture on the way.... Will they meet up together? Details in an all new weather video. The main forecast is 3 mins long, and the extended talks about more potential for storminess next week as well. Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The EPS is impressive. Only two members doesn't show wintry precip at GSO and the mean is over 2.25" of "snow." The mean at RDU is 1.8" while it's 1.3" in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like the models are running colder each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The EPS is impressive. Only two members doesn't show wintry precip at GSO and the mean is over 2.25" of "snow." The mean at RDU is 1.8" while it's 1.3" in CLT. If it shows that at tomorrow's 12z run, which will be right at day 5, it will be a miracle. It's seems like the models have had a tough time getting things inside day 5 for other winter storms in east/central this winter. Last week the clipper start trending south around day 5 was the latest example. Plus, Euro has great skill at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 If it shows that at tomorrow's 12z run, which will be right at day 5, it will be a miracle. It's seems like the models have had a tough time getting things inside day 5 for other winter storms in east/central this winter. Last week the clipper start trending south around day 5 was the latest example. Plus, Euro has great skill at day 5. 3-5 is wheel for euro, correct? Let's see a few runs beginning with 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I agree, I think there is a VERY small window that could make something very interesting around parts of GA. Depends on when the precip arrives.. your right, the depth of the layer of cold is very shallow, but man, the NAM should do the BEST with this setup. The 4KM shows the same thing, as you would expect. I also agree with you that there is some potential IF** anything can reach the ground. Anytime the train is running just to the south, with super cold on top of us, there's chances. I love this pattern. I hope it goes the rest of the winter I've had several virga bursts, and like with smoke and fire, where there's virga, there's moisture, lol. I think we'll get some ice, or something down here on the southside with that rain running under us like this. Just need the wet part to move up a bit higher, and it will if the precip increases Just need that cold to erode slowly. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 NAM, I know, has it a little icy look Sunday night in my area! Don't know how, the high is way off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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