tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Weak low in the northeastern gulf at 144, 850's look good many places. not sure if any qpf is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If we could get that damn low in the lakes to move out of the way we would be much colder at the surface I believe. Kind of helping block a better cold air push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It's a pretty good look. Maybe something to follow within day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Very close to snow in Northern GA....we might have something to watch after all. Same for the carolinas. Although I do wonder what the boundary layer would look like because it's not terribly cold before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 IMO this is best look the Euro has had all winter for GSP to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Same for the carolinas. Although I do wonder what the boundary layer would look like because it's not terribly cold before hand. Thickness is not great either....I'm not getting too caught up in all the details yet. This of course is one run....who knows what it'll show tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 IMO this is best look the Euro has had all winter for GSP to CLT. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 IF the Euro is correct with the look at 5h and that northern energy can speed up and dig it could allow for a faster phase and help funnel in some colder air and push more moisture....that's a lot of IF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 SV snowmap has nada for the SE so just tells you how borderline it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 SV snowmap has nada for the SE so just tells you how borderline it is.it's smow in the mtns but the energy was weak and thus the surface was strung out. It's close, needs a little work, but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 SV snowmap has nada for the SE so just tells you how borderline it is. Would that include ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Would that include ice? No anything that would fall would either be snow or rain IMO. 850's and thickness are just on the edge but not conducive to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The snow or rain debate is largely dependent upon the evolution of the system and it's track...vast differences between the timing and the energy involved with the system just from 00z to 12z Euro runs. I'll go ahead and be the first to say it, it may be Monday or so before the models get a handle on the system and really get some data digested on that energy out west. Am I the first one to say that this year? haha. But seriously, this is one we'll have to keep watching and unfortunately, wait for the correct solution on the modeling. Good news is anything is possible at this point, but cold will be marginal and we'll need a lot of luck here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Once again, it appears we have a different solution again from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Once again, it appears we have a different solution again from the euro?nah, impossible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Once again, it appears we have a different solution again from the euro? At least this one we can root for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 At least this one we can root for! The Euro has some GFS support. I am bullish about this threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I believe the Euro has the right idea with bringing the wave on out intact into the southern Plains. It has a nice ridge spike along the west coast behind our storm wave. The GFS squashes the wave in the southwest and sends a piece toward southern California - that squashing looks like typical GFS southern stream handling. From there though, we still have challenges...the flow is confluent along the east coast so we have limitations on how much the wave can amplify and generate precip...and the amount of cold air is obviously in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The Euro has some GFS support. I am bullish about this threat.. I take this as a huge positive then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 925 temps are a little warmer than I'd like to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I believe the Euro has the right idea with bringing the wave on out intact into the southern Plains. It has a nice ridge spike along the west coast behind our storm wave. The GFS squashes the wave in the southwest and sends a piece toward southern California - that squashing looks like typical GFS southern stream handling. From there though, we still have challenges...the flow is confluent along the east coast so we have limitations on how much the wave can amplify and generate precip...and the amount of cold air is obviously in question. The fresh snow that gets laid down in front of this system will be crucial to our chances for wintry wx here in central NC... Getting the southern edge of the snowpack down to ~I-70 corridor is near the climatological mean for all RAH past events since 2000... Equatorial forcing will remain & continue to become more favorable in advance of this potential event next week. MJO Phase 7 in January has a hot hand to produce winter storms here in NC, & we'll likely see the MJO evolve into a more diffuse, moist CCKW mode within the next few days as it continues to press through the central Pacific (as result of the upper level convergence zone in this vicinity & its also in line w/ climatology where the mean convective signal dissipates near the international dateline, while the upper level footprint remains relatively intact & propagates through the western hemisphere, decoupled from convection) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Alright webber I've already bought into one snow index this winter and I'll purchase this one if the price is right (ie it produce next wed/thurs). Thanks for sharing, beleive you showed this in a post month or so ago and it's the 1st ti.e I had heard or seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Surface temps are below freezing as you get north of Salisbury on the Euro, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Surface temps are below freezing as you get north of Salisbury on the Euro, FWIW. james, how about for the rdu area? Can you tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I don't have a lot of hope on this Jan 15 storm. Next week or two looks rather ho hum. I see the last week or 10 days of January being the time when things really kick up and finally get some real blocking setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 james, how about for the rdu area? Can you tell? Looked like 33-35 for RDU and CLT. GSO fell to 31, so it's marginal. Still not much confidence in this one. We're going to have to thread the needle if we even get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro ensembles have a decent cluster of frozen solutions for the nc piedmont for the second storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I don't have a lot of hope on this Jan 15 storm. Next week or two looks rather ho hum. I see the last week or 10 days of January being the time when things really kick up and finally get some real blocking setting up. Been trying to keep up lately. Are we really seeing decent signs of a -ao/-nao setting up post mlk day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro ensembles have a decent cluster of frozen solutions for the nc piedmont for the second storm next week. Thanks Bob! Yeah, lot of members showing wintery (ice/snow) hits. But, the Euro hasn't had 2 runs in a row that have been consistent yet. The EPS is sure trying to bring the cold back in a hurry. Just after day 10 you see it trying to build a trough in the east and with his propensity for leaving cold in the west it actually get's stuck in central US. The ridging in the west with -EPO is showing up really strong and it's building it across the pole. Also, no SE ridge on there either. The +NAO is never going away, the Greenland low is a staple of this winter, ugghh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The EPS has been to warm in the 11-15 day the past couple of weeks and now for it to show this has to be a good sign...doesn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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