BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Highs around 20-25 around most of NC next Thursday if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Now that's a wedge... Straight from the source... That kind of look and only a week out... this truly is a new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12Z GFS:KCAE - .40 PL, .16 ZRKATL - RainKGSP - .03 ZRKRDU - .04 PL, .06 ZRKMCN - RainKBHM - RainKHSV - .04 PL, FlurriesKCHS - RainKCEU - .04 ZRKUZA - .06 PL, Trace ZROverall, system is a lot weaker. Looks like KCAE is hit the worst with sleet instead of ZR as modeled yesterday. In other words, colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Highs around 20-25 around most of NC next Thursday if that verifies. Now that's what I am talking about... Bring it baby! ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yes, that is a wedge. I am trying to remember when we had that HUGE High pressure over NY/PA It was a 1053mb high and drove ZR down to SOUTH GA!! I believe it was 2002?? Anyone remember that setup or overall pattern, maybe a map from someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Now that's a wedge... Straight from the source... Too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I made a post in the ma subforum about the strat split. Is it coincidence or connected that the arctic outbreak coincides almost perfectly with the brief split @ 10-30-50mbs next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I made a post in the ma subforum about the strat split. Is it coincidence or connected that the arctic outbreak coincides almost perfectly with the brief split @ 10-30-50mbs next week? I have read that the split is very short lived. Do you have any thoughts on why it goes away so quickly? I have very little experience with all the SSW/PV stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 A little update on some thoughts for next week, not much but something until later today/tonight when I do a video. The doc cold air shot is very impressive. Likely too cold, but we all can agree, we are going to get cold next week. right?? -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I have read that the split is very short lived. Do you have any thoughts on why it goes away so quickly? I have very little experience with all the SSW/PV stuff. I have little experience as well. Wxbell's strat plots show isobars and temps overlaid so it's really easy to see the process. I suppose this particular warming is too weak to have a lasting impact. Previous warnings this season were only able to elongate the vortex and not split it. Coastalwx says it perfectly with "bend don't break" type of persistence. This warming event does pull off the split but isn't strong or long enough to keep the strat pv from returning to this season's "persistence" state. I know enough about the topic to be dangerous at best though. I think I already know what Dr. Cohen's next blog update is going to say....and we won't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The Euro is taken the NC High Country below zero for 24 hour period around January 8th. Now we talkin'. All dry cold though, hopefully some upslope will be in the mix to dust things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 A little update on some thoughts for next week, not much but something until later today/tonight when I do a video. The doc cold air shot is very impressive. Likely too cold, but we all can agree, we are going to get cold next week. right?? -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Correct. Looks like a repeat of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 A little update on some thoughts for next week, not much but something until later today/tonight when I do a video. The doc cold air shot is very impressive. Likely too cold, but we all can agree, we are going to get cold next week. right?? -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Why do you think it's TOO COLD? The NWS sure is not showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Why do you think it's TOO COLD? The NWS sure is not showing it The NWS won't until closer. They would like more model consensus. Right now, they are all showing the cold so I'd assume after 00z we'll start to hear about the possibility in the discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I have little experience as well. Wxbell's strat plots show isobars and temps overlaid so it's really easy to see the process. I suppose this particular warming is too weak to have a lasting impact. Previous warnings this season were only able to elongate the vortex and not split it. Coastalwx says it perfectly with "bend don't break" type of persistence. This warming event does pull off the split but isn't strong or long enough to keep the strat pv from returning to this season's "persistence" state. I know enough about the topic to be dangerous at best though. I think I already know what Dr. Cohen's next blog update is going to say....and we won't like it. I don't know squat but to look at WB's charts and from there you can see it's still fairly intact at 30/50mb and still fairly strong. It's still warm/weak at 10mb at day 10, even though it's located over the pole. We obviously need further warming and for it to affect it further down (30/50mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Why do you think it's TOO COLD? The NWS sure is not showing it I know you didn't ask me but usually modeled cold never verifies THAT cold. Add like 5 or so degrees at least in non-elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z EPS comes in much colder than the 00z EPS as well. -16C 2mT anomalies in N NC...this one is in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Euro ensembles in the day 10-15 range look horrible . nothing like the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Euro ensembles in the day 10-15 range look horrible . nothing like the GEFS It's ok, it has time to adjust. We're likely to see a relax and reload, probably after the 15th so that's Ok, but I also keep in mind the 10-15 day range on the EPS for this cold influx had a SE ridge basically torch all the way up to NC with the 540 line in the lakes...aka EPS sucks that far out right now. Some were worried about a pesky SE ridge while only a handful of us were saying the ridge will get squashed completely with that amount of cold in E Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's ok, it has time to adjust. We're likely to see a relax and reload, probably after the 15th so that's Ok, but I also keep in mind the 10-15 day range on the EPS for this cold influx had a SE ridge basically torch all the way up to NC with the 540 line in the lakes...aka EPS sucks that far out right now. Some were worried about a pesky SE ridge while only a handful of us were saying the ridge will get squashed completely with that amount of cold in E Canada. Great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Brother Allan thinks.... Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) 1/1/15, 16:19 No sugar coating it, day 15 Euro ENS just looks warm. Negative anomaly over AK. +AO, warmth across most of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Folks, The 12Z Euro has very cold coming to the SE US centered on 1/8. The MJO progs mostly have it in phase 5 on that day. IF that verifies along with the strong cold, it would be only a little warmer than Atlanta's (as well as that of some other areas) coldest phase 5 Jan day on record (1974-present). The current coldest phase 5 day is 1/2/2008, when the mean was only 25 (High 30 and low 20). The Euro has ATL only a little warmer than 25. By the way, the coldest low for phase 5 in JAN at ATL is the 15 of 1/3/2008. The Euro has low 20's for the low though it tends to be warm biased in some situations. Keep in mind that phase 5 has been the warmest phase on average in ATL in JAN since 1975 by a wide margin and the % of much below normal days (8 or more below normal) has been the lowest for phase 5 (12% or only 9 days). Of those 9 MB days, 6 of them were during the weak Nino of 1978 and they were consecutive days (1/26-31). The 25 being the coldest is the warmest coldest day of the 8 phases and COD, which is intuitive. Let's see if 1/8 really ends up in phase 5 and, if so, if the coldest phase 5 day at ATL ends up getting challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's ok, it has time to adjust. We're likely to see a relax and reload, probably after the 15th so that's Ok, but I also keep in mind the 10-15 day range on the EPS for this cold influx had a SE ridge basically torch all the way up to NC with the 540 line in the lakes...aka EPS sucks that far out right now. Some were worried about a pesky SE ridge while only a handful of us were saying the ridge will get squashed completely with that amount of cold in E Canada.yeah hopefully we have learned not to take these days 10 to 15 day progs as the gospel. Will we have a relaxation in the pattern yes but will we torch who knowas until we get closer to that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's ok, it has time to adjust. We're likely to see a relax and reload, probably after the 15th so that's Ok, but I also keep in mind the 10-15 day range on the EPS for this cold influx had a SE ridge basically torch all the way up to NC with the 540 line in the lakes...aka EPS sucks that far out right now. Some were worried about a pesky SE ridge while only a handful of us were saying the ridge will get squashed completely with that amount of cold in E Canada. Jon, Great point! I just now looked back in my files and saw that the following EPS 11-15 outlooks were for above normal temp.'s in the SE US: 12/25 0Z: for 0Z 1/5-1/9 12/25 12Z: for 12Z 1/5-1/9 12/26 0Z: for 0Z 1/6-10 12/26 12Z: for 12Z 1/6-10 12/27 0Z: for 0Z 1/7-11 In other words, those EPS 11-15 day outlooks are looking to verify as having been strongly warm biased. Keep this in mind as we go forward and take the EPS 11-15 day outlooks with a huge grain for now. The Euro tends to have some warm bias overall anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I know you didn't ask me but usually modeled cold never verifies THAT cold. Add like 5 or so degrees at least in non-elevated areas. Agreed, thanks Jon, I think that will be likely to cold, its an extreme run of an OP. HOWEVER** I do think we get MUCH colder next week, and I think we can agree, its going to happen...just how cold, and for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Agreed, thanks Jon, I think that will be likely to cold, its an extreme run of an OP. HOWEVER** I do think we get MUCH colder next week, and I think we can agree, its going to happen...just how cold, and for how long? Maybe not too long. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 52m52 minutes ago No sugar coating it, day 15 Euro ENS just looks warm. Negative anomaly over AK. +AO, warmth across most of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Weeklies prediction: Week 1: BN east Week 2: AN east Week 3: AN east Week 4: Normal east No -NAO throughout. AO slightly negative by week 4. +PNA week 1, -PNA weeks 2 & 3, slightly +PNA week 4. Final result (scale 1-5): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Maybe not too long. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 52m52 minutes ago No sugar coating it, day 15 Euro ENS just looks warm. Negative anomaly over AK. +AO, warmth across most of North America. However, the Euro ENS has had a sig. warm bias recently, especially in the 11-15 day period. I'd take its warmth with a grain for now. I was just looking at the Euro weekly for week 2 (1/5-11) released just one week ago today (12/25) and it had solid warmth in the SE US (see first attachment week 2). The Euro weeklies from 10 days ago, 12/22, had the entire E US in a blowtorch during 1/5-11 (that release's week 3). See 2nd attachment week 3. Moral of the story: TAKE EURO 11-15 PROGS and EURO WEEKLIES with HUGE GRAIN 1. 12/25 Euro wklies 2 M temp. anomalies: note how warm is the SE in week 2 for 1/5-11: 2. 12/22 Euro wklies 2 M temp. anomalies: note the blowtorch in the E US in week 3 for 1/5-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z GFS is back a beautiful look after 300...even has a fantasy snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 However, the Euro ENS has had a sig. warm bias recently, especially in the 11-15 day period. I'd take its warmth with a grain for now. I was just looking at the Euro weekly for week 2 (1/5-11) released just one week ago today (12/25) and it had solid warmth in the SE US (see first attachment week 2). The Euro weeklies from 10 days ago, 12/22, had the entire E US in a blowtorch during 1/5-11 (that release's week 3). See 2nd attachment week 3. Moral of the story: TAKE EURO 11-15 PROGS and EURO WEEKLIES with HUGE GRAIN 1. 12/25 Euro wklies 2 M temp. anomalies: note how warm is the SE in week 2 for 1/5-11: EuroWeekly122514Temps2M.gif 2. 12/22 Euro wklies 2 M temp. anomalies: note the blowtorch in the E US in week 3 for 1/5-11 EuroWeekly122214Temps2M.gif That's why I said, maybe. In fact I currently take the models with such a a huge grain of salt, and salt is being generous, that I feel it is pretty much a waste of time to even look at them, much less write posts about what they show, more than 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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