deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Larry, .Just like I hammered the GFS for being very inconsistent...so has the DOC. Honestly this tells me 1 thing, and 1 thing only and it might not be the obvious...AKA don't trust anything they are flippin all over the place. It tells me the EURO (DOC) is about to make a move. Either that was a fluke run and this will eventually just string itself out and be very weak, ho hum...or its about to change course and look VERY interesting for mid next week for the SE. just my 2c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 that's freezing rain not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 and, of course, those graphs include all freezing/frozen precip. Lol! And lol at Fab Feb (below)! Mega March ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Wow I know you have to take the Euro Ensemble Weatherbell snowfall members chart with a grain of salt at this point in the game, but the 12z run had 48/50 members with some type of frozen accumulation around the 14th-15th. Has 49/50 for Boone also and 45/50 for Franklin. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 18z GFS drops a 1050hp into the conus and slides over the lakes at 1048 day 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Wow I know you have to take the Euro Ensemble Weatherbell snowfall members chart with a grain of salt at this point in the game, but the 12z run had 48/50 members with some type of frozen accumulation on the 14th. Has 49/50 for Boone also and 45/50 for Franklin. Very interesting. 49 members for GSO, too. Mean of nearly 2" of "snow". Most are light, of course. 41 for RDU (1.2") and 44 for CLT (1.3"). I'm still out until more guidance falls in line. The Euro/EPS are on their own with this one so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Lol! And lol at Fab Feb (below)! Mega March ftw? CFSv2_NaT2m_20150108_201502.gif it'll be mostly blue in a couple weeks for a ........................ Fab Feb!!! If not you can call me a lying snowman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 48/50 members for GSO, too. Mean of nearly 2" of "snow". Most are light, of course. It was 44 of 51 for Charlotte and 41 of 51 for Raleigh Must have been a fair amount of rain in there too because the ens mean liquid equiv precip was 1.1 for GSO * Edited to 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ^ Actually, I think it is picking up on the rain early in the week adding to the liq equiv total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Lol! And lol at Fab Feb (below)! Mega March ftw? CFSv2_NaT2m_20150108_201502.gif Remember when it had a mega torch for all of Jan. Now it's not looking so hot...no pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 18z GFS has a nice CAD signature, but is just too suppressed for most. Still, it shows an advisory level icing event for upstate SC and SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 18z beats down the western ridge behind our storm wave and the northern stream presses down from the north...so our storm comes out weak (franklin's favorite). Could be typical bias with GFS stream handling, we'll see. High pressure to the north is pretty solid. There's icy potential here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ^ I would expect to see more stream separatiion...GFS wants to fold it all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ^ I would expect to see more stream separatiion...GFS wants to fold it all together Looks like the 18z Para might be about to drop the hammer. EDIT: Well, it's a little less suppressed and a little warmer. I thought it was looking better than it turned out. I have read that the Para has a warm bias in the BL during events, but I'm not really sure if that's true or not. Looks like light icing for C NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like the 18z Para might be about to drop the hammer. That can be taken 2 ways - drop it good, or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That can be taken 2 ways - drop it good, or bad?drop it like it's hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We really have to get these events inside day 4 to really be taken seriously this winter. Just have to shrug your shoulders now when the Euro shows a winter storm after day 5. If this misses the east coast, it's going to be a long time waiting for Feb as the next 10+ days after this would not be wintery pattern in the east. Are you basing your opinions on the rest of January not being a wintery pattern on.....the models? Aren't these the same models that, for the most part, did not see this week's cold last week? Are they the same models that have been showing a SE ridge? I would be as reluctant to buy the idea that the rest of January is not going to be a good pattern as I would the idea that we are going to get a big winter storm next week. Either or both may happen, but I'm not buying either one without a whole lot more evidence than we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 drop it like it's hot! yeah - i was just able to pull up the run (on the road) - baked potato on the grill .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Hot off the presses everyone! We look ahead to the weekend and How much rain will we see, and will it be a cold weekend? Details in the video. PLUS** we will talk about the pattern going forward, and well the EURO fired some potential*** POTENTIAL*** warning shots for next week. Details on that in the video as well. Enjoy! Please continue to share this page and video. Please invite your friends *on the left of the screen there* to your Facebook friends...I appreciate it, thank you! -Chris www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Are you basing your opinions on the rest of January not being a wintery pattern on.....the models? Aren't these the same models that, for the most part, did not see this week's cold last week? Are they the same models that have been showing a SE ridge? I would be as reluctant to buy the idea that the rest of January is not going to be a good pattern as I would the idea that we are going to get a big winter storm next week. Either or both may happen, but I'm not buying either one without a whole lot more evidence than we have now. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Good luck with that.weeklies have a -AO/nao, will it verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 weeklies have a -AO/nao, will it verify? yeSAI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I didn't see a -nao on the weeklies. They never lose the low heights over iceland and trough in europe. The -ao look is a little intriguing but it could just be an extension of the epo ridge. The thing I didn't like is the lowest heights in the conus are out west for weeks 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I didn't see a -nao on the weeklies. They never lose the low heights over iceland and trough in europe. The -ao look is a little intriguing but it could just be an extension of the epo ridge. The thing I didn't like is the lowest heights in the conus are out west for weeks 3-4. Agreed and agreed. It's like they are stuck on repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I didn't see a -nao on the weeklies. They never lose the low heights over iceland and trough in europe. The -ao look is a little intriguing but it could just be an extension of the epo ridge. The thing I didn't like is the lowest heights in the conus are out west for weeks 3-4. I haven't liked the weeklies since last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I didn't see a -nao on the weeklies. They never lose the low heights over iceland and trough in europe. The -ao look is a little intriguing but it could just be an extension of the epo ridge. The thing I didn't like is the lowest heights in the conus are out west for weeks 3-4.higher heights over all of Greenland and the Davis strait. Highest heights over western Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Agreed and agreed. It's like they are stuck on repeat.it's only 32 days away! It will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I haven't liked the weeklies since last decade.this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 higher heights over all of Greenland and the Davis strait. Highest heights over western Greenland. True but the pv is still just north of hudson the whole time. Isobars don't really have ridging. Towards the last 5 days the kinks show up for a weak east based -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 True but the pv is still just north of hudson the whole time. Isobars don't really have ridging. Towards the last 5 days the kinks show up for a weak east based -nao.Yep, and we need lower heights in the n-Atlantic.The 18z GEFS is trying but fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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