wncsnow Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Regardless of precip types...the Euro seems very adamant of producing another multiple-day (3 or more) run of clouds, cold and precip across interior parts of North Carolina. I'll be honest, that crap is getting old especially with it not delivering some kind of frozen precip type. Totally agree Dan, it has been one of the most miserable winters in recent memory in terms of cool damp weather. I feel like im back in England with this crap.. I do think there could be some ZR especially in the northern foothills if the EURO setup is right, but im sure it will change again tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That level of detail is not important this far out imo and is also not easy to discern. Also, keep in mind the warm Euro bias. So, IF it really were to set up similarly, the ZR area would extend further south of where the Euro shows 32 F. Anyway, all of this fwiw since the Euro is not consistent obviously. The next Euro could easily revert back to warmer. We'll see. I was just trying to get a feel for how widespread of a deal it was showing. I would absolutely expect the Europeans to underestimate the cold, dense air to the right of the mountains during this period. We've got the Americans showing ice. We've got the Europeans showing ice. We've got the Canadians showing warmth...right where we want them. Somebody turn Brick loose on a thread if we get another round of good trends at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro shows a subtropical jet spike next week...supports the ideas of storm and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I was just trying to get a feel for how widespread of a deal it was showing. I would absolutely expect the Europeans to underestimate the cold, dense air to the right of the mountains during this period. We've got the Americans showing ice. We've got the Europeans showing ice. We've got the Canadians showing warmth...right where we want them. Somebody turn Brick loose on a thread if we get another round of good trends at 0z. 1) CR, Fwiw, verbatim, the 1st batch, which is for late 1/13 to early 1/14 (under -.25" of qpf), is most concentrated near the SC/NC border. The 2nd batch, for mainly late 1/14, is another mainly under 0.25" batch and is mainly W of a line from RDU to Charlotte. However, all of this is based on the warm biased Euro's 32 at two meters. Could be interesting but could also end up as nothing, of course. I wonder if many will be up for tonight's run. 2) Chris, Yes, indeed. Something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Should be taken with a giant grain of salt. 850's too warm and thickness isn't close. How has the Euro done at the 850's level? I know the 2M has been warm, but has it been good at the 850 level or warm there as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 1) CR, Fwiw, verbatim, the 1st batch, which is for late 1/13 to early 1/14 (under -.25" of qpf), is most concentrated near the SC/NC border. The 2nd batch, for mainly late 1/14, is another mainly under 0.25" batch and is mainly W of a line from RDU to Charlotte. However, all of this is based on the warm biased Euro's 32 at two meters. Could be interesting but could also end up as nothing, of course. I wonder if many will be up for tonight's run. 2) Chris, Yes, indeed. Something to monitor. Thanks, Larry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 How has the Euro done at the 850's level? I know the 2M has been warm, but has it been good at the 850 level or warm there as well? In my view, it does fine with temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 In my view, it does fine with temps aloft. Yeah, agree there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 This one's for you Cold Rain...surface high's from Kansas to NY State with damming signature on GFS Ens Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Damn... that actually looks good. We'll see. The Euro and EPS seem to be on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Damn... that actually looks good. We'll see. The Euro and EPS seem to be on their own. But the Euro is the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 EPS mean has a SLP just south of HAT at 162, textbook SLP track. Edit: Still a lot of spread but the clusters from 162-174 support this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 But the Euro is the king. Yeah, but when it's the King versus every other model, I'll hedge against it. Remember how the king and its ensembles were all-in on a huge winter storm for the East Coast last month while the other models showed a strung out mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah, but when it's the King versus every other model, I'll hedge against it. Remember how the king and its ensembles were all-in on a huge winter storm for the East Coast last month while the other models showed a strung out mess? Remember just this week when the Euro showed nothing for this weekend and the GFS and Para were showing ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Control run is much weaker too. We have seen this dance many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah, but when it's the King versus every other model, I'll hedge against it. Remember how the king and its ensembles were all-in on a huge winter storm for the East Coast last month while the other models showed a strung out mess? not just last month, the past three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Remember just this week when the Euro showed nothing for this weekend and the GFS and Para were showing ice?no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Control run is much weaker too. We have seen this dance many times before. It's more progressive, but surface is odd, has 2 SLP's, one over HAT and another over SAV at 168. If it was a consolidated low it would probably have produced better. I have a feeling the Euro is eventually going to shred this to nothing the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's more progressive, but surface is odd, has 2 SLP's, one over HAT and another over SAV at 168. If it was a consolidated low it would probably have produced better. I have a feeling the Euro is eventually going to shred this to nothing the next couple of days. comparing the 0z ensembles to the 12z, the 0z was a little stronger and had more negative tilt with the trough. The 12z is not as strong and more positively tilted. Not tonly mention the Op went from an apps runner to a strung out weak mess in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 comparing the 0z ensembles to the 12z, the 0z was a little stronger and had more negative tilt with the trough. The 12z is not as strong and more positively tilted. Not tonly mention the Op went from an apps runner to a strung out weak mess in one run. We really have to get these events inside day 4 to really be taken seriously this winter. Just have to shrug your shoulders now when the Euro shows a winter storm after day 5. If this misses the east coast, it's going to be a long time waiting for Feb as the next 10+ days after this would not be wintery pattern in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 comparing the 0z ensembles to the 12z, the 0z was a little stronger and had more negative tilt with the trough. The 12z is not as strong and more positively tilted. Not tonly mention the Op went from an apps runner to a strung out weak mess in one run. Hmmm, I know you like big storms franklin, but big storm + cold and snow is a long shot here IMO. Just looked at the Euro Ens Mean and Control. With the west coast ridge spike and subtropical jet spike, I like the idea of at least moderate precip amounts. This mainly looks like an ice or rain deal, all based on the northern stream timing and high pressure setup with damming. Euro Ens Mean looked pretty good with that, although the high was retreating off the NE coast at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Hmmm, I know you like big storms franklin, but big storm + cold and snow is a long shot here IMO. Just looked at the Euro Ens Mean and Control. With the west coast ridge spike and subtropical jet spike, I like the idea of at least moderate precip amounts. This mainly looks like an ice or rain deal, all based on the northern stream timing and high pressure setup with damming. Euro Ens Mean looked pretty good with that, although the high was retreating off the NE coast at the end.yeah I like the big ones, but I am at least hoping this could be a consolidated miller a. The fact that the gfs and cmc have a weak system and now the euro and it's ensembles heading that way I'm less impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 looks like the GEFS does have sfc temps below freezing wed morning. The high pressure does weaken as it moves east towards the Atlantic though reducing the CAD slightly and warming temps above freezing during the afternoon. The high must not weaken to increase/stabilize the pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 From what I've heard from others on this board (DT in particular) we want more of a moderate negative qbo that then rises towards neutral. Decembers numbers came in at record negative values. Even if we saw a substantial move towards lower neg values I'm not sure of the lag time it takes to promote blocking. Anyway DT explains the qbo quite well this blog. If you want to skip to the qbo part scroll down to the "Why is the Pacific Jet Howling" headline. http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/ I've heard -20 is the threshold for too negative..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 EPS really tries to move the trough east after day 11 or so, kind of loses steam by day 15 but still a nice move day 11+..... Still no blocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 This one's for you Cold Rain...surface high's from Kansas to NY State with damming signature on GFS Ens Mean Good looking map right there, sir! It's a pretty big window of damming. I'm not going to guarantee someone sees ice out of this but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looking at the euro ensembles, I predict we'll see a significant bump in the snow graphs this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Good looking map right there, sir! It's a pretty big window of damming. I'm not going to guarantee someone sees ice out of this but.... I will, but I'm crazy like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 and, of course, those graphs include all freezing/frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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