packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Let me go ahead and finish this: High comes in stronger. Batch of precip moves through before the high builds in. It moves into a great position at 120. Precip moves out. Dry. High moves out. Precip moves in. Rain. Zonal flow. LOL, real shocker...going to be nice to get back into a Dec like pattern again, not having to waste so much time on here and looking at models. Hopefully that will just carry on and put the dagger in this dreadful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12Z Euro: some ZR parts of Carolinas 1/13-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Or it may be that many seasonal forecasters underestimated the effects of the continued strong -qbo which does not promote a lot of blocking. I don't know squat about the QBO except that I was always told the -QBO promotes blocking, but it seems it can't be to negative, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro is trying hard to give us a ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12Z Euro: 2nd batch of light ZR part of NC 1/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 12z euro clown map likes SC and NC today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The Euro is colder for the first storm, too. Legit 33/RN for the Triad. If we're gonna do cold rain, we might as well do it as cold as we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 12z euro clown map likes SC and NC today. That's practically all ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 12z euro clown map likes SC and NC today. Should be taken with a giant grain of salt. 850's too warm and thickness isn't close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Should be taken with a giant grain of salt. 850's too warm and thickness isn't close. The Euro clowns count ZR as SN. It is ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 DC gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That's practically all ZR. Should be taken with a giant grain of salt. 850's too warm and thickness isn't close. Hence the word "clown". Thought it was a well known fact to everyone at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like the euro is headed towards the gfs, again! No snow for anyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Where do the boundaries set up (frozen vs. not)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like the Euro is back to close to the scenario it offered up earlier in the week for this weekend. I'm going to need to see the surface at least a degree or two colder to believe in any sort of significant ZR scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The coastal late on the 15th on the Euro is close to snow for I-85. EDIT: Verbatim, it looks like some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Where do the boundaries set up (frozen vs. not)?Wisconsin/Illinois border! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The coastal late on the 15th on the Euro is close to snow for I-85. EDIT: Verbatim, it looks like some light snow. it takes until 180 for 850's to drop below freezing for even the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Wisconsin/Illinois border! Somebody tell Brick to start the thread. I just see the coarse maps on the Euro, so I don't know when it starts. But if it's at 120, tell him to light it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 it takes until 180 for 850's to drop below freezing for even the mtns.Yeah, I know. Rain to snow, assuming 700 mb isn't blazing or something. It's nothing much, but an interesting novelty.2013-2014 weenie analog is on track. Early January cold snap. Non-accumulating snowfall on the 15th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Somebody tell Brick to start the thread. I just see the coarse maps on the Euro, so I don't know when it starts. But if it's at 120, tell him to light it up. I wasn't sure what the rules are about threads for specific storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't know squat about the QBO except that I was always told the -QBO promotes blocking, but it seems it can't be to negative, I guess. From what I've heard from others on this board (DT in particular) we want more of a moderate negative qbo that then rises towards neutral. Decembers numbers came in at record negative values. Even if we saw a substantial move towards lower neg values I'm not sure of the lag time it takes to promote blocking. Anyway DT explains the qbo quite well this blog. If you want to skip to the qbo part scroll down to the "Why is the Pacific Jet Howling" headline. http://www.wxrisk.com/the-return-of-the-firehose/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Where do the boundaries set up (frozen vs. not)? That level of detail is not important this far out imo and is also not easy to discern. Also, keep in mind the warm Euro bias. So, IF it really were to set up similarly, the ZR area would extend further south of where the Euro shows 32 F. Anyway, all of this fwiw since the Euro is not consistent obviously. The next Euro could easily revert back to warmer. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like the Euro is back to close to the scenario it offered up earlier in the week for this weekend. I'm going to need to see the surface at least a degree or two colder to believe in any sort of significant ZR scenario. That's a pretty solid ice setup on the Euro if it plays out like that. It has sfc temps mostly in the low 30's on Tues and Wed east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That level of detail is not important this far out imo and is also not easy to discern. Also, keep in mind the warm Euro bias. So, IF it really were to set up similarly, the ZR area would extend further south of where the Euro shows 32 F. Anyway, all of this fwiw since the Euro is not consistent obviously. The next Euro could easily revert back to warmer. We'll see. Yeah, agree, if you get that setup, it makes sense that it could be a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Larry, there seems to be another strong high that gets in the CAD zone by next WED... That would spell TROUBLE if that run/setup is right. Another freakin high will most def pump more cold air down. Hell, its got 30's almost to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That is a good post right there. Any word on the Canadians? How did they look for the event next week? The Canadians look all set to get snow next week and pretty much throughout all of winter. The Canadian model on the other hand has our location rather iffy with regards to wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 From WPC Discussion… THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN STREAM ALOFT INLAND OVER THE NATION FROM THE WEST COAST...SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE GREATER SPREAD OCCURS IN GUIDANCE. WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES INTO TX SUN/MON AND OFFERS A P-TYPE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS ALONG ITS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PCPN PERIPHERY. THIS LEADS TO THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING DIFFERENCES LATER WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND MIGRATION OVER THE GULF STREAM IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE OVER TIME...THE SPREAD ALOFT INCREASES OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE NRN STREAM DETAILS MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT EFFECT ANY STREAM INTERACTIONS. IN MOST OF THESE SCENARIOS THOUGH...THE SURFACE RIDGE DAMMED SOUTHWARD FROM THE NERN US REMAINS A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AND FLOW PATTERN AND AN UNCERTAIN WAVE/PCPN PATTERN RUNNING UNDERNEATH. TODAYS WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH HPCGUIDE GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SERN US. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD REMAINS A TOUGH CALL. THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH MAY FAVOR RECENT GFS/GEFS RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED WITH QPF THAN RECENT ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT MAY BE FAVORED BY UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLITUDE. WPC PRODUCTS TODAY LEAN 60-40 TOWARD THE LATTER GIVEN TRENDS AND CONTINUITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like the Euro is back to close to the scenario it offered up earlier in the week for this weekend. I'm going to need to see the surface at least a degree or two colder to believe in any sort of significant ZR scenario. The ECMWF just busted badly on low temps for last night. Why would we expect it to get the temperature right several days from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Regardless of precip types...the Euro seems very adamant of producing another multiple-day (3 or more) run of clouds, cold and precip across interior parts of North Carolina. I'll be honest, that crap is getting old especially with it not delivering some kind of frozen precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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