Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 BOOM! f384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well, some folks said it should start getting good at the end of January. Here comes the -NAO. Just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 SE ridge ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well, some folks said it should start getting good at the end of January. Here comes the -NAO. Just in time. We usually have strong blocking at 384 most winters. Be nice to see it at 38.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 SE ridge ftw! I'm not trying to digest a 384 hour map but with that look there's not going to be a SE ridge, not that I buy an extreme blocky look like that this far out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm not trying to digest a 384 hour map but with that look there's not going to be a SE ridge, not that I buy an extreme blocky look like that this far out anyway. Well, if we get that idiot trough out west, we'll get a ridge-type response in the SE. The surface could still be cold, though. But yeah, I'm with you...that look will likely not verify and it's pointless to dissect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We usually have strong blocking at 384 most winters. Be nice to see it at 38.4. + Infinity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well, if we get that idiot trough out west, we'll get a ridge-type response in the SE. The surface could still be cold, though. But yeah, I'm with you...that look will likely not verify and it's pointless to dissect. Yeah, that's what the map shows but if we get that kind of block it would be a deep & cold CONUS as a whole, depending on that -EPO or of a +PNA sets up...no ridge. But again you'd have to look past direct model output. But it's 320+ so who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cmc is close for western areas next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there any support for the -NAO on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Maybe it will look like this from Jan 21st on into Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there any support for the -NAO on the ensembles? Nope, not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 SE ridge ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 SE ridge ftw!We saw how that worked out last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The GEFS is trying to lower heights in the atlantic and raise heights over Greenland...wishcasting at this point but that's all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't want to spend too much time dwelling on 384 other than to see if the -NAO trend continues to show up. If it does and if it verifies, I don't see how a SE ridge of any magnitude could exist. Two other things to remember if the NAO block becomes a trend in the LR. 1.) SE ridges on the models have a had a history of not verifying this year. 2.) We don't live at 500 MB. Our 2M temps would certainly not reflect those heights IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yep not sure why anyone would be possibly be worried about the SE ridge on a 384 hour map with that setup...on the flip side it goes the same way for getting worked up over -NAO and blocking....it just seems to me even in the LR we haven't really seen much of either in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't want to spend too much time dwelling on 384 other than to see if the -NAO trend continues to show up. If it does and if it verifies, I don't see how a SE ridge of any magnitude could exist. Two other things to remember if the NAO block becomes a trend in the LR. 1.) SE ridges on the models have a had a history of not verifying this year. 2.) We don't live at 500 MB. Our 2M temps would certainly not reflect those heights IMHO. Not only this year but last year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't want to spend too much time dwelling on 384 other than to see if the -NAO trend continues to show up. If it does and if it verifies, I don't see how a SE ridge of any magnitude could exist. Two other things to remember if the NAO block becomes a trend in the LR. 1.) SE ridges on the models have a had a history of not verifying this year. 2.) We don't live at 500 MB. Our 2M temps would certainly not reflect those heights IMHO. That is a good post right there. Any word on the Canadians? How did they look for the event next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro play by play anyone? Or no point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That is a good post right there. Any word on the Canadians? How did they look for the event next week? Cohen says rest of Jan cancelled that all of our weenie dreams will be answered in Feb, LOL What a failure the SAI has been, obviously the SAI may play a part in our winter conditions for blocking but it's a very small part, very small. Edit: At some point he just needs to throw in the towel and say he is going back to the drawing board. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The downward propagation of negative AO conditions in the stratosphere will be slow to influence the tropospheric circulation, particularly if vortex recovery is slow as forecasted to be. Therefore, we anticipate near-neutral AO conditions to persist for much of the second half of January. This will promote a progressive flow pattern and periods of warmth and seasonable coolness hemispherically for the remainder of the month. Prospects for a negative AO remain fairly high into early February given the recent minor SSW, though some uncertainty on timing and the eventual strength of the negative state still remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That is a good post right there. Any word on the Canadians? How did they look for the event next week? Too warm. 850s are on fire and the surface looks like 30s. Great weather. At least Jshetley will be happy as it's very wet. Brick won't be happy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I don't want to spend too much time dwelling on 384 other than to see if the -NAO trend continues to show up. If it does and if it verifies, I don't see how a SE ridge of any magnitude could exist. Two other things to remember if the NAO block becomes a trend in the LR. 1.) SE ridges on the models have a had a history of not verifying this year. 2.) We don't live at 500 MB. Our 2M temps would certainly not reflect those heights IMHO. And a third point............ 3. Other items that have had a recent history of not verifying - a -NAO At some point, something has to give, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Meanwhile, watch the 12Z Euro. The high coming in is stronger at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cohen says rest of Jan cancelled that all of our weenie dreams will be answered in Feb, LOL What a failure the SAI has been, obviously the SAI may play a part in our winter conditions for blocking but it's a very small part, very small. Edit: At some point he just needs to throw in the towel and say he is going back to the drawing board. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The downward propagation of negative AO conditions in the stratosphere will be slow to influence the tropospheric circulation, particularly if vortex recovery is slow as forecasted to be. Therefore, we anticipate near-neutral AO conditions to persist for much of the second half of January. This will promote a progressive flow pattern and periods of warmth and seasonable coolness hemispherically for the remainder of the month. Prospects for a negative AO remain fairly high into early February given the recent minor SSW, though some uncertainty on timing and the eventual strength of the negative state still remains Unfortunately, this has already become painfully obvious. It's more of a hindcast at this point. Too warm. 850s are on fire and the surface looks like 30s. Great weather. At least Jshetley will be happy as it's very wet. Brick won't be happy, though. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Meanwhile, watch the 12Z Euro. The high coming in is stronger at hour 108. Yeah, but it's slower to move east and bulk of precip is gone. The day 7 event on the euro looks much weaker then previous runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah, but it's slower to move east and bulk of precip is gone. The day 7 event on the euro looks much weaker then previous runs...no surprise, it has been the most amped and it's own ensembles have had a weaker low on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Meanwhile, watch the 12Z Euro. The high coming in is stronger at hour 108. Let me go ahead and finish this: High comes in stronger. Batch of precip moves through before the high builds in. It moves into a great position at 120. Precip moves out. Dry. High moves out. Precip moves in. Rain. Zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 no surprise, it has been the most amped and it's own ensembles have had a weaker low on the coast. It's not as weak as the GFS but it's definitely weaker. Sheared weaker systems are the trend this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cohen says rest of Jan cancelled that all of our weenie dreams will be answered in Feb, LOL What a failure the SAI has been, obviously the SAI may play a part in our winter conditions for blocking but it's a very small part, very small. Edit: At some point he just needs to throw in the towel and say he is going back to the drawing board. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The downward propagation of negative AO conditions in the stratosphere will be slow to influence the tropospheric circulation, particularly if vortex recovery is slow as forecasted to be. Therefore, we anticipate near-neutral AO conditions to persist for much of the second half of January. This will promote a progressive flow pattern and periods of warmth and seasonable coolness hemispherically for the remainder of the month. Prospects for a negative AO remain fairly high into early February given the recent minor SSW, though some uncertainty on timing and the eventual strength of the negative state still remains Or it may be that many seasonal forecasters underestimated the effects of the continued strong -qbo which does not promote a lot of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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