BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro has a definite warm bias at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I agree, those Highs look like they're in good position yet the temps are warm even in the CAD areas. I'm getting depressed looking at the ultimate results at the surface on the models though. My gut tells me that at least the Western CAD areas will not completely escape with 0 winter weather if they Highs and moisture is close to what's modeled. Maybe its just us weenies grasping here as the Mets don't seem to be talking it up much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Raleigh nws afd is talking about frzng drizzle along and east of I 95 tonight with temps on upper teens around 20, want take.much. And nice clipper on radar dropping down this a.m. glad they can get moisture in such cold weather to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm just not sure why everyone is so glum with this threat. Maybe I just don't know what to look for with CAD. But with the placement and strength of that high, there HAS to be damming, right? I don't care what the models have for temps at this range. I would think at least SOME damming has to be occurring with that setup. Maybe in the end, the temps/wetbulbs won't be cold enough, but at this range, it looks good to me. I agree with your thoughts. It seems in many, many potential CAD situations, the big problem is the strength of the HP, the placement of the HP, or the fact that the HP moves out too quickly. That really has not been an issue here. HP has been consistently modeled to be strong and well placed. The issue has been getting the precipitation. If the precip comes, it would seem very hard for us not to see some ZR. Especially y'all up in NC CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GFS has a 1044 high pressure, stronger than previous runs, heading over the lakes by day 5. The first batch of precip moved through as rain before the high pressure got in a favorable spot. Probably will be dry after this though, where the Euro had more precip moving through at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GFS has a 1044 high pressure, stronger than previous runs, heading over the lakes by day 5. The first batch of precip moved through as rain before the high pressure got in a favorable spot. Probably will be dry after this though, where the Euro had more precip moving through at this time. That energy coming on it's heels out west looks good. Descent high coming over the lakes...will probably slide out too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro has a definite warm bias at the sfc. Yea for sure. Just odd that it's so warm. Either way if we had that kind of high something wintery would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Man if that energy out west wouldn't get in the meat grinder and turn into an elongated mess we would probably be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Man if that energy out west wouldn't get in the meat grinder and turn into an elongated mess we would probably be in business. Which storm are we tracking here just so I'm on the right page, are we talking about the mid month storm or something before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GFS very close to a big hit @160ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Which storm are we tracking here just so I'm on the right page, are we talking about the mid month storm or something before that? The 15th. Interested to see what the PARA has to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GFS very close to a big hit @160ish. Still interesting at this time period: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=159ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_159_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150108+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Can't believe I'm being pulled back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GFS very close to a big hit @160ish. Cold Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cold Rain? 2m temps and 850's dip beyond that frame. There isn't a good cold air source but with enough cold air lingering around before that I think there is potential. We need a better look at 5h though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ya it is close at hour 160, and it looks like wedging is pretty pronounced as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yea for sure. Just odd that it's so warm. Either way if we had that kind of high something wintery would happen. Cold Rain? wouldn't take much for that to be snow in nc and tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 2m temps and 850's dip beyond that frame. There isn't a good cold air source but with enough cold air lingering around before that I think there is potential. We need a better look at 5h though. Yeah it's depiction is close for the I-40 corridor for sure. It seems like the Highs have no trouble moving out and the lows crawl along at a snail's pace to get to our area and become strung-out bits and pieces of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GFS very close to a big hit @160ish. There is 30+ hours of strong damming, according to the GFS. The window is open. It will probably be less than that, when the time comes though. It's probably keeping the northern stream too far south and keeping the high too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The model bias would suggest that it might be too progressive. The problem in the end will likely be centered around the lack of a cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The GFS is, literally, 33 and rain for most of NC west of US1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The model bias would suggest that it might be too progressive. The problem in the end will likely be centered around the lack of a cold air source. At least the PARA has a descent high sitting in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 PARA has light snow for most of NC past 160. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The GFS is, literally, 33 and rain for most of NC west of US1 Of course take this with a grain of salt: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150108+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The GFS is, literally, 33 and rain for most of NC west of US1 Good thing I live right off US1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah it's depiction is close for the I-40 corridor for sure. It seems like the Highs have no trouble moving out and the lows crawl along at a snail's pace to get to our area and become strung-out bits and pieces of moisture. The reason is a fast northern stream flow (see the blue Xs in the image below). The flow is fast and progressive in the northern stream. Waves move through, leaving confluence in their wake. High pressure is migratory as the confluence zone pulls east and northeast. In contrast, the southern stream slower and the energy is less organized and abundant (see the green X). There are impulses to generate precip, but they are either not well modeled right now or not being shown as strong enough to do much. Either way, all it takes is for the model to be incorrect about the speed of energy in either stream to allow for a period of juxtaposition of moisture and cold. I think it works out where at least some of the area sees some frozen. By the way, according to this run of the GFS, the damming window is roughly hr 114 - 168. That's a pretty good window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The reason is a fast northern stream flow (see the blue Xs in the image below). The flow is fast and progressive in the northern stream. Waves move through, leaving confluence in their wake. High pressure is migratory as the confluence zone pulls east and northeast. In contrast, the southern stream slower and the energy is less organized and abundant (see the green X). There are impulses to generate precip, but they are either not well modeled right now or not being shown as strong enough to do much. Either way, all it takes is for the model to be incorrect about the speed of energy in either stream to allow for a period of juxtaposition of moisture and cold. I think it works out where at least some of the area sees some frozen. By the way, according to this run of the GFS, the damming window is roughly hr 114 - 168. That's a pretty good window. Excellent post CR. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there actual blocking showing up on the 12z....in between meetings so can't look at NH maps, just looks that way on the surface at hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there actual blocking showing up on the 12z....in between meetings so can't look at NH maps, just looks that way on the surface at hour 384. strong -NAO yeah...blocking over the top starting at 324...I don't have the teleconnection graphs but this is a deep -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 strong -NAO yeah...blocking over the top starting at 324...I don't have the teleconnection graphs but this is a deep -NAO Thanks. It's amazing how you can just look at a surface map and kind of tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Is there actual blocking showing up on the 12z....in between meetings so can't look at NH maps, just looks that way on the surface at hour 384. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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