Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I was talking about the beginning of December until now. I'm not sure about that. I think December finished above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm not sure about that. I think December finished above normal. Maybe the average but I think taking the average skews things. I think it is more important how many days out of the month were at or below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Maybe the average but I think taking the average skews things. I think it is more important how many days out of the month were at or below normal.Averages skew averages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Maybe the average but I think taking the average skews things. I think it is more important how many days out of the month were at or below normal. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Averages skew averages? No, I said averages can be skewed. They can be misleading. You can have one week of a torch with temps way above normal and it skews the average. If the rest of the month is at or below normal, I think that is more telling than the average of the temps. I just think the number of days at or below normal versus the days above normal is more important and telling when it comes to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Hey Folks! Everyone's doing a lot of bitchin' and moaning and complaining about patterns and what hasn't happened and what might happen and when the 2nd Coming happens and .... But - you wouldn't have a place to prognosticate, pontificate or post without this forum. So - let's keep this train rolling. Only $1,850 out of $10 K needed? How's about pulling out a credit card and donating before doing the next "gotcha" post? Best, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Attention on deck!! hahah JK An all new video is up online. We will talk about the forecast for tonight/tomorrow, and look ahead to the weekend. Yes, the trends have been awful for wintry weather, but is it over? We will talk about the models and my thoughts on them going forward. PLUS, we have another maybe interesting storm next week?? Y'all have been talking about that and I talk/show you guys what my thoughts are on that. Thanks for watching, sharing the video and my page. Please hit the invite on my page and invite your Facebook friends to like it please.! Thank y'all -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No, I said averages can be skewed. They can be misleading. You can have one week of a torch with temps way above normal and it skews the average. If the rest of the month is at or below normal, I think that is more telling than the average of the temps. I just think the number of days at or below normal versus the days above normal is more important and telling when it comes to winter. December was a pure garbage month with no period favorable for winter weather regardless of how it arrived at above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The temperature distribution thus far this month is closely following the Warm Neutral-Weak/Modoki El Nino composites for January, & in fact in a general sense, even w/ December being quite warm nationwide (w/ of course comparatively cooler temps towards the southeastern US) this winter's behavior thus far is far from being unusual for an El Nino winter as some are trying to claim... After this cold shot moves through, this temperature anomaly map is going to look even more like a typical +Neutral/Weak-Modoki January as we erode away more of the residual warmth hanging in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 There is a VERY SMALL window, if you buy the GFS, and the 18z run added a little more buying power, of some FZDZ around portions of GA and maybe into SC. There is enough moisture that is pulling in hard right above the deck, and a nice NE wind will keep the cold in tack, because by Sunday am, the wedgie is in full force. NOT buying into YET, but something to watch.. Here is the Skew t for KMCN from the 12z GFS in bufkit. I only really noticed it because FFC has it in our forecast. Yeah i'm looking forward to the possibility of a freezing drizzle/light rain storm sunday/sunday night. Looks pretty probable that if anything falls sunday morning will be freezing. Hard to say really what to expect sunday night..gfs drops temps back to right around freezing during the evening. It would be really unusual to see any freezing precipitation sunday morning, going over to liquid during the day and back to freezing at night. Either way, not a big deal but I'm expecting huge temperature busts for the local atlanta media. Most have been showing highs near 50 when in reality, I don't expect us to get much above 35 or 36 here sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The temperature distribution thus far this month is closely following the Warm Neutral-Weak/Modoki El Nino composites for January, & in fact in a general sense, even w/ December being quite warm nationwide (w/ of course comparatively cooler temps towards the southeastern US) this winter's behavior thus far is far from being unusual for an El Nino winter as some are trying to claim... After this cold shot moves through, this temperature anomaly map is going to look even more like a typical +Neutral/Weak-Modoki January as we erode away more of the residual warmth hanging in the southeast. look at it from November 1st till now. It's a classic Nino look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 December was a pure garbage month with no period favorable for winter weather regardless of how it arrived at above average. I said December had a bunch of days with rain and in the 40s. It just wasn't cold enough for anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's very possible for non mountain areas of the SE to have a winter that is well below normal in temps, well above normal in precip and not see a flake. The timing has to be right, along with everything else. Yes, and Cold Rain describes this well with his thread the needle analogy. Overall, the AO and NAO have been the biggest disappointment thus far. The daily NAO index has been -0.5 or lower only 3 days since Nov 20th (3 of 49 days). That tightens the hole of the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I said December had a bunch of days with rain and in the 40s. It just wasn't cold enough for anything but rain. Sorry, I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought since you said that it was frustrating because we've had above normal precip with more days below average than above and just couldn't get the cold and precip to hook up. Except that the days below average have really only been below average mostly because of clouds and rain. There's really been no cold to speak of except for now. I felt like at the beginning of December, once we saw what all of the data was showing, it would be mid Jan before we started getting a legit shot for winter wx. I still think that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yes, and Cold Rain describes this well with his thread the needle analogy. Overall, the AO and NAO have been the biggest disappointment thus far. The daily NAO index has been -0.5 or lower only 3 days since Nov 20th (3 of 49 days). That tightens the hole of the needle. That and the ao has been a royal pita. I'm not sure whether to believe or not but ens guidance is starting to consistently advertise significant changes in the Atlantic. 18z gefs continued the trend. The overall h5 pattern is looking much more like a Nino down the line and the raging +ao/nao are trending towards a breakdown. Hard to bet against persistence but if the trends continue and move into the med range it will start getting a lot of attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah i'm looking forward to the possibility of a freezing drizzle/light rain storm sunday/sunday night. Looks pretty probable that if anything falls sunday morning will be freezing. Hard to say really what to expect sunday night..gfs drops temps back to right around freezing during the evening. It would be really unusual to see any freezing precipitation sunday morning, going over to liquid during the day and back to freezing at night. Either way, not a big deal but I'm expecting huge temperature busts for the local atlanta media. Most have been showing highs near 50 when in reality, I don't expect us to get much above 35 or 36 here sunday Agreed!! Im soooo glad your back, sir!! I am very interested as well, don't think it will be much, but very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's very possible for non mountain areas of the SE to have a winter that is well below normal in temps, well above normal in precip and not see a flake. The timing has to be right, along with everything else. One-third (4) of the 12 wet, cold winters at Atlanta since 1879-80 had below average wintry precip.: 1899-1900 with T of SN (strong Nino), 1914-5 with 1.4" SN (weak Nino), 1960-1 with 0.1" SN (neutral +), 1983-4 with 1.3" SN (weak Nina). Also, none of these had major ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 look at it from November 1st till now. It's a classic Nino look. It really is in a broad sense & even w/o an El Nino, a strong +PDO like what we're seeing would still at least allowing the extra tropics to think we're in an El Nino... The reason why February tends to perform a lot better in the southeastern US & on the eastern seaboard has to do w/ the southward progression of the Aleutian Low. It's a seemingly minor shift in this predominant feature which through modulation of the subtropical jet, that drives the SE US ridge further offshore in February, and esp. in a winter like this where we have observed an overall lack of troughs that impart persistent wind stress on the waters off the eastern seaboard, when you shift the storm track and the core of the cold southeastward in February, while leaving the water off the coast relatively warm, you essentially create a region of natural baroclinicity that cold core mid-latitude disturbances feed off of, which offers at least one possible explanation for the explosion of NESIS snowstorms in El Nino Februarys... The stimulus implemented on the overall pattern w/ southward progression of the Aleutian Low in February is equivalent to having the MJO in the COD vs w/ amplitude over the Pacific (this offers a viable explanation for GaWx's observed correlation to colder temps when the MJO is in the COD). You could certainly argue that increasing the amplitude of the MJO also invigorates the associated Rossby Wave train that moves in concert w/ the MJO, which originates all the way from northern Africa & the Indian subcontinent (not coincidentally, this is in the vicinity of where the MJO's signal in convection is regenerated upon reaching the Indo-West Pacific warm pool where SSTs are more sufficient to sustain latent heat processes). Due in part to Coriolis deflection, angular momentum conservation, etc (given other conditions are equal, larger accelerations in the mid-latitude jet caused by a growth in MJO magnitude force it to circumnavigate the pole w/ lower radial distance) this stronger wave train that emerges also is re-directed further north, and what follows is a heightened tendency for the jet stream to behave zonally because the anomalous atmospheric waves are slightly poleward of their respective positions when the MJO is in the COD. Essentially, the lower height perturbation is ignited over northern Africa & southern Asia as the MJO re-enters/amplifies in the eastern hemisphere, and this height anomaly travels east-northeastward, eventually coming out into the Pacific Ocean and then gaining more latitude as it wave-breaks cyclonically in comparatively close proximity to the semi-permanent Aleutian Low once the MJO progresses deep into the Pacific. In an idealized world, the remnants of the now enhanced Aleutian Low often dampen (weaken) & become more diffuse as they expel much of their remaining energy into northern Asia & the Arctic, all while yet another wave train is being generated over Africa/Indian subcontinent... I drew in the overall propagation of this height perturbation w/ a black arrow onto a northern hemisphere stereographic & the red numbers are indicative of the "normal" positioning of this anomaly in each respective MJO phase. When it comes to winter storms, although I've previously mentioned that for large southern US overrunning events, it's a necessity to have the pattern blocked up in the NE Pacific/Alaska to force split-flow & undercutting in the subtropical jet, well this is true at least for Miller B/CAD, but for Miller A's the NAO/AO appears to carry more importance. There's definitely a noticeable shift in the epicenter of high latitude blocking between Miller A's/B's w/ the EPO/WPO (NAO/AO) expressing a increasingly vigorous footprint preceding Miller B (A) storms... Those two pictures showing the EOF of the positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern & negative phase of the East Atlantic (EA) are among the top three principle component patterns in the North Atlantic sector (the other being the NAO) were taken from a paper by Dr. David M/ Straus & Dr. Jagadish Shukla regarding the "Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Intraseasonal Time Scales" http://www.onr.navy.mil/reports/FY13/mmstraus.pdf The Scandinavian Block & the positive phase of the East Atlantic Pattern (@ least w/ many of the recent CAD events) tends to be well-established about a week or so in advance of these Miller B storms that strike the Carolinas. We've yet to see this pattern persistently establish itself thus far this winter... N hem 500mb 7 day lead vs Large Miller B/CAD Events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 One-third (4) of the 12 wet, cold winters at Atlanta since 1879-80 had below average wintry precip.: 1899-1900 with T of SN (strong Nino), 1914-5 with 1.4" SN (weak Nino), 1960-1 with 0.1" SN (neutral +), 1983-4 with 1.3" SN (weak Nina). Also, none of these had major ZR. 1900 and 1961 had "avg" precip for RDU and 84 was "avg" temps but was climo for snow. 1914-15 was almost 18" of snow for RDU. If we get well below normal temps with above avg precip we (central NC) are going to be snowy. It would be terrible luck to be below average for snow with well below normal temps and above avg precip. I don't think there is an analog that exists with that criteria that would have below avg snowfall, atleast for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 hmmm...NAM might be a litttttle interesting at the end of the run...can't wait to look at it in Bufkit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 hmmm...NAM might be a litttttle interesting at the end of the run...can't wait to look at it in Bufkit! Looks plenty cold enough for most of the SE at 2M to me. Perfect placement on that 1042 HP in the NE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 hmmm...NAM might be a litttttle interesting at the end of the run...can't wait to look at it in Bufkit! 00z suite beginning of the comeback? Low level moisture streaming in from the SE, and mid level moisture moving in from the west on top of a pretty stout wedge Sunday AM late in the NAM run. If the radar simulation represents reality Sunday morning, what wx weenie could resist hoping for a surprise icing event in at least the GA cad areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks plenty cold enough for most of the SE at 2M to me. Perfect placement on that 1042 HP in the NE too. It would def. be cold enough, and the HP is almost as perfect as you can get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 00z suite beginning of the comeback? Low level moisture streaming in from the SE, and mid level moisture moving in from the west on top of a pretty stout wedge Sunday AM late in the NAM run. If the radar simulation represents reality Sunday morning, what wx weenie could resist hoping for a surprise icing event in at least the GA cad areas? It could...verbatim still looked like maybe some FZDZ, but the Sim Reflect shows some returns over at least mid GA pushing N at like hr 78-84 or around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 1900 and 1961 had "avg" precip for RDU and 84 was "avg" temps but was climo for snow. 1914-15 was almost 18" of snow for RDU. If we get well below normal temps with above avg precip we (central NC) are going to be snowy. It would be terrible luck to be below average for snow with well below normal temps and above avg precip. I don't think there is an analog that exists with that criteria that would have below avg snowfall, atleast for central NC. Keep in mind 10" of the 18" for RDU in 14-15 came with that April storm. (Credit goes to WeatherNC for the image; he posted it four winters ago.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 00z suite beginning of the comeback? Low level moisture streaming in from the SE, and mid level moisture moving in from the west on top of a pretty stout wedge Sunday AM late in the NAM run. If the radar simulation represents reality Sunday morning, what wx weenie could resist hoping for a surprise icing event in at least the GA cad areas? The 18z DGEX was maybe a bit interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS looks a little bit like the 18z and 12z run..More than likely just virga, but still a very close call for us here in GA Sun am.. Could be some FZDZ or DZ depending on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's frustrating that now we're getting a lot wetter trend with the 00z being quite wet, but now temperatures are too warm... Splitting the uprights with these highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The upcoming pattern really isn't good for us at all. I don't know why people are getting excited. The Euro is absolutely awful in the LR. Unless we can have some sort of fundamental shift in the pattern in the Pacific and a switch to -AO or something, we will get nothing but perhaps a token wintry event (e.g., some flurries on the backside of something). I think it's entirely possible that we may stay near normal for temperatures this year and have no accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Para has nada...which is more than likely right...so we shall see...just not much there...looks to dry at the sfc until it warms up. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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