Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

[Cold Rain]

We're in a cutter pattern for wound up systems.  Ridge out west needs to be farther east.

[packbacker]

We're in a cutter pattern for wound up systems.  Ridge out west needs to be farther east.

 

Depends on timing the ridge is progressing east, no blocking, but yeah, would prefer weaker system shooting off the coast then some big wound up deal hugging the coast.  

 

I thought the surface would look better on the Euro when looking at the 500mb map.  It does end up trying to develop a low off the SC coast but there is another low up off the NE coast too.  Of course it gives the MA a winter storm.  I have no idea why that 2nd low is there up off the NE coast.

[burgertime]

Euro doesn't cut but there isn't enough of a cold air tap day 8-9...so it still needs to be watched. 

[superjames1992]

The Euro is days and days of 30s/rain. Looks exciting.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro has a week strung out low on the coast. GFS ensembles are showing some decent blocking for pack in the lr.

[superjames1992]

The LP gets its crap together as it heads north and destroys New England.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensemble mean has a weak low hugging the coast. The control has a wound up low running thru the nc piedmont.

[BullCityWx]

You know, I think we'd at least see some snow with that euro solution. Wouldnt be alot but it could be a changeover kind of deal. 

[metwannabe]

Euro ensemble mean has a weak low hugging the coast. The control has a wound up low running thru the nc piedmont.

How are areas west of the apps on the control

[Batman]

Everything has failed this winter....nino pattern, SAI/OPI.  I really thought by now we would see a move to more blocking after Jan 20th or so.  Now we are moving the goal posts back to Feb for that. 

 

Oh yeah, Dec's QBO went even more negative....

Everything has failed? Not sure I understand that. How has the Nino failed? My place is a swamp. Standing water everywhere. There are systems all over the place which is one reason the models suck so bad right now. Southern Jet energy, Isn't that a main Nino ingredient? We have had tons of that and tons of precip. from that energy. Much more coming from looking at the models. Will it all be snow, IP, or ZR? No, but when is it ever in the deep south? Winter is certainly not failing today. 34 degrees with a wind gusting to 31 mph. Not run of the mill January weather for middle GA! I have lived thru 23 winters in GA and have had plenty where I would have loved to have the look of the next few weeks on the models. I have lived thru Januarys and Februarys that would have made December 14 look cold. I have never seen wall to wall cold in GA. In the best winters, it snows maybe a few times and each one melts in a few days (if not sooner). I really think we may have stirred ourselves up into a frenzy about "wall to wall" cold back into November and set ourselves up for failure. Not the winters failure, but the failure to meet our expectations. I average 2" of snow a year. Give me a good snow or two and let me keep the shorts packed up until at least March and I will call it a good winter. I think we are still on track for that IMBY!

[BullCityWx]

Looks like the control goes from Greenwood, SC to Albemarle to Chesapeake Bay. 

[Cold Rain]

Looks like the control goes from Greenwood, SC to Albemarle to Chesapeake Bay. 

 

That sounds like a good track for the Apps or eastern TN.  How do the temps look?  If they look anything like the Op, they have to be pretty marginal at best.

[franklin NCwx]

How are areas west of the apps on the control

looks great for middle and western Tennessee

[packbacker]

 

Everything has failed this winter....nino pattern, SAI/OPI.  I really thought by now we would see a move to more blocking after Jan 20th or so.  Now we are moving the goal posts back to Feb for that. 

 

Oh yeah, Dec's QBO went even more negative....

Everything has failed? Not sure I understand that. How has the Nino failed? My place is a swamp. Standing water everywhere. There are systems all over the place which is one reason the models suck so bad right now. Southern Jet energy, Isn't that a main Nino ingredient? We have had tons of that and tons of precip. from that energy. Much more coming from looking at the models. Will it all be snow, IP, or ZR? No, but when is it ever in the deep south? Winter is certainly not failing today. 34 degrees with a wind gusting to 31 mph. Not run of the mill January weather for middle GA! I have lived thru 23 winters in GA and have had plenty where I would have loved to have the look of the next few weeks on the models. I have lived thru Januarys and Februarys that would have made December 14 look cold. I have never seen wall to wall cold in GA. In the best winters, it snows maybe a few times and each one melts in a few days (if not sooner). I really think we may have stirred ourselves up into a frenzy about "wall to wall" cold back into November and set ourselves up for failure. Not the winters failure, but the failure to meet our expectations. I average 2" of snow a year. Give me a good snow or two and let me keep the shorts packed up until at least March and I will call it a good winter. I think we are still on track for that IMBY!

 

 

I don't live in the deep south.   We haven't been in a nino pattern, atleast not yet, but the day 7-10 look on the EPS is a nino looking pattern.  Up to this point we haven't had that and we have had no blocking with no end in sight for that.  Just because it's cold for a few days doesn't mean this winter is going as planned.

[franklin NCwx]

That sounds like a good track for the Apps or eastern TN. How do the temps look? If they look anything like the Op, they have to be pretty marginal at best.

it sends the 850 low right over Chattanooga, so it's warm for everyone.

[FallsLake]

RAH leaves a glimmer of hope in their LR discussion:

FOR SUN/MON: THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES NE FROM TX AND THE NW
GULF TOWARD THE LOWER MISS VALLEY EARLY SUN... DAMPENING OUT IN THE
PROCESS. BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS EAST
AND OFF THE COAST... THE LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE FROM THE BAHAMAS ALONG WITH STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHERN
STREAM INFLUENCE AND A SHARPENING NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL CULMINATE
IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES STARTING LATE SUN OR SUN EVENING...
AHEAD OF A WEAK NRN STREAM FRONT MOVING SE OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PRECIP AT THE GROUND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER HAS A CHANCE TO MOISTEN FROM THE MID LEVELS ON DOWN...
WITH THE ONSET OF FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO IMPROVING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WITH A LACK OF DPVA
AND A SURFACE FOCUS FOR LIFT... WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE BY THE PRECIP AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET OVER THE NRN/WRN PIEDMONT. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR MIGHT BE AVAILABLE WITH THE
PARENT HIGH HAVING MOVED WELL OFFSHORE... ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE LOW... BOLSTERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-
FREEZING WET BULBS. WILL KEEP CHANCES AS JUST RAIN FOR NOW WITH
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT ABOVE 32F... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL. EXPECT DAILY HIGHS NO BETTER THAN THE 40S WITH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY PRECIP LIMITING THE DIURNAL RANGE.

FOR TUE/WED: THE WEAK NRN STREAM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE THEN SETTLES JUST OFF THE
COAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUE... AND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR WHILE THE COLUMN REMAINS
SATURATED... WE COULD SEE PRECIP END AS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE... BUT AGAIN THIS IS FAR TOO EARLY WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO MENTION
NON-LIQUID PRECIP AT THIS TIME. ANY WINDOW OF CLEARING OR LULL IN
PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE BRIEF... LASTING FROM LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED... AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASING WITH BROAD
NRN STREAM TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL/ERN NOAM SHOULD ENSURE A
CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVE PATTERN... WITH THE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
WED WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES BACK IN
WED... AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER RUNS FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES IF A POTENT CYCLONE DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS THAT ARE
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE. -GIH
 

[FallsLake]

Did the GFS just come in wetter at hour 105 plus????

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=114&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150107+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Not sure where temps are...

 

Edit: Looks like temps are not cold enough at hr 114

[deltadog03]

There is a VERY SMALL window, if you buy the GFS, and the 18z run added a little more buying power, of some FZDZ around portions of GA and maybe into SC.  There is enough moisture that is pulling in hard right above the deck, and a nice NE wind will keep the cold in tack, because by Sunday am, the wedgie is in full force.  NOT buying into YET, but something to watch.. Here is the Skew t for KMCN from the 12z GFS in bufkit.  I only really noticed it because FFC has it in our forecast.  

 

[Batman]

I don't live in the deep south.   We haven't been in a nino pattern, atleast not yet, but the day 7-10 look on the EPS is a nino looking pattern.  Up to this point we haven't had that and we have had no blocking with no end in sight for that.  Just because it's cold for a few days doesn't mean this winter is going as planned.

Yea, one of the difficulties of the forum is we do have different locations and different climo which can and should lead to different expectations. I suppose you and some of those further north than I are entitled to expect more snow. You typically get more. I would argue that the winter thus far has behaved like a nino WRT rain and the amount of systems running thru the jet. Don't see that changing. I do see more potential for cold air to get involved than we saw in December, which is my main reason for optimism. When you average 2" of snow per winter, it is like what they tell the batter with 2 strikes on him "it only takes one"!

[franklin NCwx]

From Nov 1st to today we are running below normal on temps for that time frame.

[JoMo]

The expectations from a lot of meteorologists this winter and long range forecasters was for the southeast to be colder and wetter than normal. I think many people thought (myself included) that after the big cold that came in November, that the entire winter was going to be cold, with probably above average snowfall. This was based on the expectation that there would be similar blocking to last year, so we would get the cold, and on top of the cold would come the El Nino, which would lead to an active southern storm track, which would lead to above average snowfall.

[sctvman]

Dave Williams (WCIV meteorologist) is suggesting possible snow Friday early AM in Lowcountry.

[Brick Tamland]

The expectations from a lot of meteorologists this winter and long range forecasters was for the southeast to be colder and wetter than normal. I think many people thought (myself included) that after the big cold that came in November, that the entire winter was going to be cold, with probably above average snowfall. This was based on the expectation that there would be similar blocking to last year, so we would get the cold, and on top of the cold would come the El Nino, which would lead to an active southern storm track, which would lead to above average snowfall.

Well, it has been wetter than normal. And I think it has been colder than normal, too, at least in my area. It just hasn't been cold enough when we have had precip. Every week in December we had one or two days with rain and temps in the 40s.

[jburns]

It's very possible  for non mountain areas of the SE to have a winter that is well below normal in temps, well above normal in precip and not see a flake. The timing has to be right, along with everything else.

[SnowGoose69]

It's very possible  for non mountain areas of the SE to have a winter that is well below normal in temps, well above normal in precip and not see a flake. The timing has to be right, along with everything else.

 

Exactly, look at last winter...that snow event in late January sort of came out of nowhere, if it had not happened many areas were on their way to having a month -6 to -10 below normal with nothing to show for it.  Overall its tough it seem before 1/20 or so for winter events down there.

[Brick Tamland]

It's very possible for non mountain areas of the SE to have a winter that is well below normal in temps, well above normal in precip and not see a flake. The timing has to be right, along with everything else.

That is why it has been so frustrating so far. I know we are above normal in precip since December. And I am sure we have had more days at or below normal with temps since December. Just can't get the cold and the precip to hook up so far. Hopefully, things will stay active and we will have it happen.

[Brick Tamland]

Exactly, look at last winter...that snow event in late January sort of came out of nowhere, if it had not happened many areas were on their way to having a month -6 to -10 below normal with nothing to show for it. Overall its tough it seem before 1/20 or so for winter events down there.

The last 10 days of January seems to be a good period in my area to get snow for some reason. We didn't get any until the end of January last year and then a couple more events, and we ended up at average snowfall. That is why I am not worried until February. We could not get anything until.the end of this month and still end up with some good snow storms. I think the Christmas 2010 snow and the forecasts for a good winter had folks expecting snow in December. But we rarely get snow around Raleigh in December. There is still time to get good snow.

[Cold Rain]

That is why it has been so frustrating so far. I know we are above normal in precip since December. And I am sure we have had more days at or below normal with temps since December. Just can't get the cold and the precip to hook up so far. Hopefully, things will stay active and we will have it happen.

There's only been 7 days since December. That's not a great stat.

[Brick Tamland]

There's only been 7 days since December. That's not a great stat.

I was talking about the beginning of December until now.

[GaWx]

The last 10 days of January seems to be a good period in my area to get snow for some reason. We didn't get any until the end of January last year and then a couple more events, and we ended up at average snowfall. That is why I am not worried until February. We could not get anything until.the end of this month and still end up with some good snow storms. I think the Christmas 2010 snow and the forecasts for a good winter had folks expecting snow in December. But we rarely get snow around Raleigh in December. There is still time to get good snow.

Yep, it is similar in ATL.

Note that the mid month Arctic airmass threat is back. This is essentially the same one that started suddenly appearing on the GFS only 5 days ago (~12Z 1/2 run) despite the GFS having reached out to the timeframe of the setting up for it (western ridging) for a good 5 or so days before 1/2. The runs before 12Z of 1/2 were showing mainly zonal flow for mid month. Subsequently after a few runs with it, it was then off the GFS runs for a number of runs before starting to appear again. My point is that this is still another example of the models recently not seeing the Arctic plunges all that far out in time in a number of cases. (The Euro has been most guilty of this.) So, trying to figure out what will come after this mid month potential cold shot is not going to be easy based on lack of model foresight. The 18Z GFS hints that another strong cold shot plunging from Canada could start appearing for around a week after the mid month cold shot. Also, the strength of the mid month Arctic opportunity is obviously still up for grabs. Let's see what the next few days of runs show.

Late January/1st half of Feb is the overall peak for major winter storms in Atlanta and much of the SE. If we can get cold domination during that period and considering the weak Niño/high end neutral positive ENSO, it is quite reasonable to expect at least one good threat then. This winter could still very easily turn out to be a really good one! Look at last winter, for example. The first big event, the one that caused snowjam II in ATL wasn't til ~1/27-8. Look at the memorable winter of 1978-9. ATL and other areas had TWO majors ( ZR & IP at ATL) and the first one didn't occur til ~2/7-8! Look at 1894-5. ATL had TWO major SN's then and 1st wasn't til mid Feb!