packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That MJO diagram looks nice. But yeah, I'd love to see some other models jump on. GFS takes it around the horn. The Euro, which had it hanging in phase 5, now moves it to phase 6 and into the COD. That's progress, I guess. Where we continue to falter is with blocking. We have no signal for that...STILL. The AO and NAO are strongly positive and are forest to fall to neutral, at best. We need a reshuffling there, big time. Everything has failed this winter....nino pattern, SAI/OPI. I really thought by now we would see a move to more blocking after Jan 20th or so. Now we are moving the goal posts back to Feb for that. Oh yeah, Dec's QBO went even more negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Everything has failed this winter....nino pattern, SAI/OPI. I really thought by now we would see a move to more blocking after Jan 20th or so. Now we are moving the goal posts back to Feb for that. Oh yeah, Dec's QBO went even more negative.... My hope is that we can get to -40 or so with the QBO. If we're going to go down, we might has well break some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 What a beautiful spot for a high in the CAD region by early Sunday...oh Crap...we don't have any moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Very cold the next few days, then then the cold moves out, rain moves in, rain moves out, and the cold moves back in. We better get used to that cycle this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 On the 12z GFS, there is a good supply of high pressures through 144, but I can't remember a time when 1040ish high pressures with a developing west coast ridge can't even penetrate the midwest and Ohio Valley. Kind of kooky looking IMO. One thing seems certain. I wouldn't expect to see much of the sun next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 this one looks DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Good look next week on the GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 this one looks DOA Northern vort way to strung out and north. No blocking or 50/50 makes it hard to keep it south to keep the confluence zone south to keep strong high pressure south to keep a cold feed to get frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Northern vort way to strung out and north. No blocking or 50/50 makes it hard to keep it south to keep the confluence zone south to keep strong high pressure south to keep a cold feed to get frozen precip. Only a little over 7 weeks until March and this nightmare of a winter will be over.... GFS pops a SLP right over our fannies and then gives the MA a big winter storm. Par for the course, it's a MA themed winter, again. Only gives them 12-15", that will improve as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty good signal for a storm of some kind mid next week. Just have to wait to see what the high locations, ridge location, and vort looks like in a few days for a better idea..........but I do think an east coast system is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Does the -QBO keep the flow too fast for big storms to develop? Just trying to figure out how that plays into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Does the -QBO keep the flow too fast for big storms to develop? Just trying to figure out how that plays into the equation. Some say that it helps to keep the Stratospheric vortex wound up and hard to break down. This would lead to difficulty in blocking. Others say that there's no real scientific, peer-reviewed research on this. Some say strong -QBOs with Ninos are good. Some say they're good with low solar flux. Some say rising -QBOs with weak Ninos and solar maximums under a full moon on leap years are good. I think it's a bogey that nobody can lock torpedoes on. But it or something else has locked torpedoes on our winter and the shields are weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS and GFS PARA are night and day different at day 10ish. Has a PV dropping with major cold in the east. GFS in the LR is just fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS and GFS PARA are night and day different at day 10ish. Has a PV dropping with major cold in the east. GFS in the LR is just fugly. Yeah, because the Para leaves a cut-off behind in souther cali and thus the primary is over the lakes. If we have to watch another cut off rot away in Cali I am going to lose my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Some say that it helps to keep the Stratospheric vortex wound up and hard to break down. This would lead to difficulty in blocking. Others say that there's no real scientific, peer-reviewed research on this. Some say strong -QBOs with Ninos are good. Some say they're good with low solar flux. Some say rising -QBOs with weak Ninos and solar maximums under a full moon on leap years are good. I think it's a bogey that nobody can lock torpedoes on. But it or something else has locked torpedoes on our winter and the shields are weakening. Lol. I remember DT stating it had a negative effect if the numbers didn't start to come up. Someone did mention that may improve so hopefully it won't be a negative factor anymore if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Burger that storm that the DOC has, and now OP GFS shows some potential...Verbatim not the best right now, but that could be a fun one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Burger that storm that the DOC has, and now OP GFS shows some potential...Verbatim not the best right now, but that could be a fun one to watch. 6z GFS had not a hint of it and now 12Z shows a decent coastal. Looks like they are sniffing something out. Still looks awfully warm for most of the SE during that time, not a good track at the moment. but its so far out who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 As long as the rain keeps working underneath, I'm content. Cold with no moisture is just cold..like today, or tomorrow..big whoop, lol. Rain working underneath gives a high a chance to come down, and all I ever get a winter is 2 or 3 chances anyway..often not very good ones,.and a lot of winters that's not until March, lol. I've had snow then zr in my forecast this week, so that's a start. Maybe something will actually happen one day...might even be this winter, lol. Mid month has looked interesting for a while...stranger things have happened! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Canadian still shoots up moisture very early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any report from the Canadians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any report from the Canadians? Well there's this from the Canadian....that is one stout PV dropping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Burger that storm that the DOC has, and now OP GFS shows some potential...Verbatim not the best right now, but that could be a fun one to watch. Yea it was close for sure. I'll be interested to see what the DOC has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Cmc is quite ker with moisture and ice in extreme nw sc foothills briefly and va. Then the next system goes a step futher than the gfs and para and the northern stream energy doesn't get going good until later and screws MA but does good for new england. But it drags very cold air down for us and looks like it would be setting up a stout 50/50 and shake up the north atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Even if the D8-D9 coastal does happen as the GFS and Euro show, I'm not sure where the cold air is going to come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yea it was close for sure. I'll be interested to see what the DOC has to say. agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Even if the D8-D9 coastal does happen as the GFS and Euro show, I'm not sure where the cold air is going to come from. very true...we WILL have cold issues with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The GGEM ia straight cold day 6-10. Funny out relax period keeps getting pushed back and back . Great looking western ridge on the 12z guidance for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Even if the D8-D9 coastal does happen as the GFS and Euro show, I'm not sure where the cold air is going to come from. Theoretically we will have a HP located in central US that is trying to banana in. Edit: Actually reminds me of last Jan's winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro is probably going to cut but it's going to be nice looking storm day 7. Much sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It got a little messy day 7, has a SLP over the benchmark and over FL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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