deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The pattern doesn't look great at all, I agree with most on here. I do want to just have a nice friendly reminder...We DONT live at 500mb level or the 850mb level around here. Obviously you can in the High country, but for most of us around here...NADA. So, YES there might be positives at times at H5 and H85, but with big highs involved and Arctic air close by, I would gather the 2m anomalies are not as bad as the upper levels are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Don't worry pack, Cohen will be along later next week with a thriving update telling us to wait only a few weeks for the AO...ZZZZZZZZZZZZ LOL....Yeah, I wasn't really buying the immediate move to a -AO but hopefully by end of Jan early Feb, and I have nothing to really base that on except pure hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Bob,if the qbo weakened, would that help some? I have no skill and don't worry much about the -qbo one way or the other. There are too many conflicting cases of +/- qbo winters. Right now it's getting a lot of attention because this winter is going much the opposite as planned. It could be -qbo driven, or -qbo driven in conjunction with other things, or simply weather just being weather. I'll go with the latter. Imo we could have the same general early season setup in a future year and have a very different outcome. Each year is always unique in some ways so using analogs fails as often as succeeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 LOL....Yeah, I wasn't really buying the immediate move to a -AO but hopefully by end of Jan early Feb, and I have nothing to really base that on except pure hope. We'll have a clearer picture in 2 weeks. Seems we are entering an anomalous +ao regime for a time. If the progs remain + for the remainder of the month once we hit mid month we can probably hedge Feb + as well. Big + regimes have staying power just like the - ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think if one looks to the ao and nao for answers you are not going to like what you see. Both are going to stay positive for some weeks. Maybe through the month really but we have the epo and the pna working for us to an extent. With no blocking in the nao region it just means a fast flow like last year. Will make for some interesting setups for the future I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We'll have a clearer picture in 2 weeks. Seems we are entering an anomalous +ao regime for a time. If the progs remain + for the remainder of the month once we hit mid month we can probably hedge Feb + as well. Big + regimes have staying power just like the - ones.just what I was thinking Bob. Still does not mean winter is canceled just a fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The thing I don't understand is what's contributing to the ao and nao remaining positive?? Guess that's the million dollar question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The SE can still get a major winter storm during a predominant +NAO/AO period. Look no further than 3/12-13/1993, the Storm of the Century! There are others, too. That being said, the OPI and SAI appear as of now to be heading toward colossal failure and that is actually putting it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Qbo being so negative is playing a big part IMO. Does anyone have any qbo charts from December that can tell us how the qbo is doing and what to expect moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 CMC has NC below freezing from Tuesday of next week until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Watching the 12z gfs loop on tt. Around hour 240 or in that neighborhood actually shows mixed bag event for coast , wilmington mrytle. It will change a 100 tomes, but I got a chuckle thinking of the meltdown brick and a few others would have if that verefied during this glorious winter we are having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The thing I don't understand is what's contributing to the ao and nao remaining positive?? Guess that's the million dollar questionit's were we have these lows and highs set up in the Arctic regions. We do know why it us remaining positive and not going negative. Just goes to show you mother nature is way more complex than some snow advance index. It's many variables and not just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 IDK if anyone noticed but the 12z Euro ens for 1/8 is much colder (2mT anom.) than the 12z and the previous 00z before that. I'm pretty sold on some deep SE cold late next week. Although the 06z GEFS is not as cold as the 00z GEFS...for RDU it still doesn't get above 35 Thurs, with a low of 20...the last run was 32/18...splitting hairs really. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Weeklies spit out a fantasy pattern in the LR just because it should be colder in the short range and maybe that starts something, or at least more accuracy with the model. We see some fantasy patterns in the LR on globals already, just a hunch...how long can the weeklies suck for? Maybe a few more runs, I don't know. JMA looks sorta bad except for the last 14 days of the month...wish I could change a few of those dates around to periods of my choice and spit out some 500mb looks. I'm interested in week 3, maybe the weeklies will show us something good. Meanwhile the CFSv2 for Feb is a fab feb as far as cold is concerned, deep cold in the east, but it has 30 more days to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The SE can still get a major winter storm during a predominant +NAO/AO period. Look no further than 3/12-13/1993, the Storm of the Century! There are others, too. That being said, the OPI and SAI appear as of now to be heading toward colossal failure and that is actually putting it mildly. I am still on the fence. If we average a predominately strong -AO from end of Jan for several weeks then I think it would be successful. But if not, you can essentially throw it out the window for any future winters. Yeah it might play a small role but it would be a very small role, assuming it does fail. Webber posted this, so far we are target, we are seeing the PV weaken/warm by end of Dec into early Jan. Now we need the 2nd step of it propagating into the trophosphere for Jan. We should see this happening mid/end of Jan if this thing is worth a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Well the GFS has a high amplitude MJO coming into phase 7/8 by Jan.10th-15th. This has a chance to be correct,considering the MJO has trended stronger and faster than forecasted.ECMWF has it stalling in 5 going COD,I would like to see it come into more agreement with the GFS before I buy it. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I am still on the fence. If we average a predominately strong -AO from end of Jan for several weeks then I think it would be successful. But if not, you can essentially throw it out the window for any future winters. Yeah it might play a small role but it would be a very small role, assuming it does fail. Webber posted this, so far we are target, we are seeing the PV weaken/warm by end of Dec into early Jan. Now we need the 2nd step of it propagating into the trophosphere for Jan. We should see this happening mid/end of Jan if this thing is worth a crap. Pack, The big guy himself, Judah Cohen, has explicitly stated that a high SAI is associated with a -AO averaged DJF as per this: "The strongest signal in the model is the October Siberian snow cover, which is the second highest ever observed in the record. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter." If the DJF averaged AO doesn't end up solidly negative, I'll consider the SAI a solid failure for 2014-5. IF so, let's see how Cohen would handle himself. Will he be honest and humble about his major failure for 2014-5 if it indeed ends up a failure? If so, I'll continue to respect him as he does seem brilliant. **Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12Z Good Doctor coming in frigid for the SE 17-/8! Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12Z Good Doctor coming in frigid for the SE 17-/8! Edited Awesome to see the Doc cave to GFS ! Bow to the new king: GFS and GFS para! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Pack, The big guy himself, Judah Cohen, has explicitly stated that a high SAI is associated with a -AO averaged DJF as per this: "The strongest signal in the model is the October Siberian snow cover, which is the second highest ever observed in the record. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter." If the DJF averaged AO doesn't end up solidly negative, I'll consider the SAI a solid failure for 2014-5. IF so, let's see how Cohen would handle himself. Will he be honest and humble about his major failure for 2014-5 if it indeed ends up a failure? If so, I'll continue to respect him as he does seem brilliant. **Edited This is what he said last month....so his theory, atleast in his mind is still on target. Typically the [fall Eurasian] snow signal doesn’t arrive [or manifest itself] in North America until sometime in January. So based on [fall Eurasian] snow cover alone, the forecast from January through March is clearer. So for years with high snow cover [like this one], I expect the period from late January through March to be colder than December through early-to-mid January. There have been some great examples of this recently but especially 2012-13. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12Z Good Doctor coming in frigid for the SE 17-/8! Edited Wow, understatement there Larry. -21c at 850 here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Awesome to see the Doc cave to GFS ! Bow to the new king: GFS and GFS para! Correct me if I am wrong, but I think it's the period just after this, where the GFS reloads and the euro warms that is the bigger question..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is what he said last month....so his theory, atleast in his mind is still on target. Typically the [fall Eurasian] snow signal doesn’t arrive [or manifest itself] in North America until sometime in January. So based on [fall Eurasian] snow cover alone, the forecast from January through March is clearer. So for years with high snow cover [like this one], I expect the period from late January through March to be colder than December through early-to-mid January. There have been some great examples of this recently but especially 2012-13. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/ Pack, I understand. However, notwithstanding what you cited, his theory is that there is a strong correlation between the SAI and met. winter/DJF averaged AO. March is irrelevant to that number (since it is in met. spring) and Dec. is relevant. If he's now looking at Jan-Mar, he would need to amend his theory. Regardless, all of the stats are based on DJF. Refocusing on JFM would be moving the goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wow, understatement there Larry. -21c at 850 here!I'm assuming, it's a dry cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Good lord someone pissed off the DOC. The "KING" has dropped the HAMMER on the SE next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Good lord someone pissed off the DOC. The "KING" has dropped the HAMMER on the SE next week. Just looking at the extracted data, it looks as cold as last years cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 EURO is going to have an ICY look at D9-10 IMO Not there yet, but a nice 1040mb high over PRIME CAD areas on a refrigerated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Just looking at the extracted data, it looks as cold as last years cold shot. Ya, do we believe it tho? IMHO I say YES! Maybe not that severe, but GFS looks Cold, CMC looks cold and PARA looks even colder. JB, btw, HAMMERED the EURO EPS today on his video.. JS, its been AWFUL!!! The run from this past monday, for next week is gonna bust HARDCORE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ya, do we believe it tho? IMHO I say YES! Maybe not that severe, but GFS looks Cold, CMC looks cold and PARA looks even colder. JB, btw, HAMMERED the EURO EPS today on his video.. JS, its been AWFUL!!! The run from this past monday, for next week is gonna bust HARDCORE!This period is really were the euro excels. So to speak this is in the euros wheelhouse for accuracy. May modify but wow is that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is what he said last month....so his theory, atleast in his mind is still on target. Typically the [fall Eurasian] snow signal doesn’t arrive [or manifest itself] in North America until sometime in January. So based on [fall Eurasian] snow cover alone, the forecast from January through March is clearer. So for years with high snow cover [like this one], I expect the period from late January through March to be colder than December through early-to-mid January. There have been some great examples of this recently but especially 2012-13. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/ I hope he's not saying this will be similar to 2012-13. Horrible winter and it didn't get cold until the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Now that's a wedge... Straight from the source... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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