toxictwister00 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 LOL, going down with the ship on this one...I still wouldn't be surprised to see this come back in the next couple of days. The day 10 look is a pipe dream at this point. I have been lectured since early Dec that the day 10 look on the models are wrong and now it shows a nice setup and we are supposed to believe that. :-) Ditto. Although regarding the system this weekend, I guess the red herring/red flag has always been the ECMWF. It's not a good sign when it's the Euro against everyone else. It's even worse when the other side begins to concede to the Euro... I wish the first system in TX on Fri had the oomph to come in sooner. I wouldn't even care what the following one right behind it on Sun/Mon did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's pretty pointless to get too up or down at this point. Just looking at the gfs/euro comparison maps, they couldn't be more different on the evolution of the STJ. There are a million pieces of energy that will be coming along over the next 10 days. This pattern matches up very well with nino climo. This first wave everyone was keying in on for Sunday appears too weak to me for much other than some freezing drizzle. The GFS finally caught on at the sfc as far just how dry the airmass will be and that weak s/w was not going to do the trick. What's interesting to me is the larger piece of energy behind it on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 When was the most recent widespread freezing rain system in either Nc Sc or Ga? I feel like it was a while ago but I have only been following wider regional weather more closely over the past five years so it could have been fairly recently and I didn't realize it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 When was the most recent widespread freezing rain system in either Nc Sc or Ga? I feel like it was a while ago but I have only been following wider regional weather more closely over the past five years so it could have been fairly recently and I didn't realize it. Thanks! 2/12-3/14 was a widespread major ZR from S/E ATL burbs eastward to Augusta as well as SEward to Forsyth/Macon (Forsyth hit harder than Macon I think) and then into much of central SC and even to CHS! It was a doozy and widespread! Worst in some areas in decades. I took a trip from ATL to Savannah not too long afterward and it looked really bad in some areas to near Macon. Also, areas further north got some ZR including N ATL burbs to NE GA including AHN/some of NW SC and some of NC including Charlotte I think. It was the heaviest ZR in parts of ATL in at least 9 years. It occurred during neutral negative ENSO, a favored ENSO phase for major ZR in parts of the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Augusta got trashed. Over an inch according to some friends over there. Really tore up their neighborhood. I'm still dealing with destruction here from last year, and it was nothing much here, yet I have trees dropping limbs, or just falling over even now. Broken limbs a hundred feet up, letting go finally. I'm surprised at how much damaged that little bit did last year. ..and ongoing. I hate those things......with a passion. Nasty, evil things...zmonsters. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 2/12-3/14 was a widespread major ZR from S/E ATL burbs eastward to Augusta as well as SEward to Forsyth/Macon (Forsyth hit harder than Macon I think) and then into much of central SC and even to CHS! It was a doozy and widespread! Worst in some areas in decades. I took a trip from ATL to Savannah not too long afterward and it looked really bad in some areas to near Macon. Also, areas further north got some ZR including N ATL burbs to NE GA including AHN/some of NW SC and some of NC including Charlotte I think. It was the heaviest ZR in parts of ATL in at least 9 years. It occurred during neutral negative ENSO, a favored ENSO phase for major ZR in parts of the SE US. Ya, for Macon proper it wasn't the worst, but some of our counties north of here had over .50" of ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It has been they kept up with on another board it's right about 8 days. I see your point I just think it's funny now we are already looking at a ten day storm when the models can't even agree on a day 5 storm. I agree there is a strong signal but we have seen strong signals muted in the past It is nice to finally get some things to show up on the models, even 10 days out, and even if it goes away down the road. We were not even getting that in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Decent wedging on the 18z GFS... but zero precip in NC. Wonderful. Well, I would rather have no precip if it just meant rain anyway. This one looms like either rain or nothing now it the Para saying no ice now. Maybe the system around the 15th will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 New weather video is up, and we talk the Arctic cold, and my thoughts on what the Weekend weather might or might not bring. Thanks for watching everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Augusta got trashed. Over an inch according to some friends over there. Really tore up their neighborhood. I'm still dealing with destruction here from last year, and it was nothing much here, yet I have trees dropping limbs, or just falling over even now. Broken limbs a hundred feet up, letting go finally. I'm surprised at how much damaged that little bit did last year. ..and ongoing. I hate those things......with a passion. Nasty, evil things...zmonsters. T It was even worse N/NW of the city in Columbia County - lots of neighborhoods here carved out of rural areas that were cut off for days and days. Some people went a week without power. I've never seen a fast food line so long, it's like no one has stocked pantries anymore. Definitely NOT wanting to see that again any time in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Let's rock! Got the 1059 high about to drop into ND, so that's consistant ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 One of the SW's survived the trek on the GFS day 5-6. HP slides out and 2nd is not as fast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 ya for mid 30's to upper 30's and rain..lol by 6z Mon. Maybe* some light icing over N AR *IF the 00z GFS is right with 2m temps verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS very euro like, go figure. Good thing we didn't start a thread, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GO WEST, YOUNG MAN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Another high dropping in plains on Sun, maybe it'll get into position, if there is any moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 LOL, GFS does flip to ice/snow for good part of NC, day 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 00z GFS says game's back on, at least for NC. Best it's looked in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 There are 1040+ highs in the lakes area and SE Canada, at the time the bulk of precip comes in, guess that's providing the cold? Shouldn't be able to cut into the highs? A miller B , I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 NC gets some love TUE am and through the day. I would guess that is ZR as a nice High parked over NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Para looks awful, though. EDIT: Actually, it doesn't. Delayed 24 hours, but not denied. Certainly better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 NC gets some love TUE am and through the day. I would guess that is ZR as a nice High parked over NE I know ice is bad but it is beautiful when not too heavy so I'll take it. Nice to see those highs keep building in. I love CAD. I hate to see the threat sliding back to day 6/7 though and would sure like it to come in quicker so you guys to my South could also get in on the party. Of course this will change again. Hopefully for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Para looks awful, though. EDIT: Actually, it doesnt. Delayed 24 hours, but not denied. Looks a little dry, but monster wedge and nice 1051 high in SE Canada, all we need is moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Looks a little dry, but monster wedge and nice 1051 high in SE Canada, all we need is moisture Yeah, it's probably a solid mid level advisory event. Could be a big deal on the roads with the cold weather preceding it. I wouldn't expect many power outages with the Para's depiction, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 00z LR is ugly ugly ugly . Kinda fits the winter theme so far. Will be interested in seeing what all ensembles look like in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I wouldn't sweat gfs LR. I watch Para LR, But goofy is as bad as it ever has been day 11-15 no matter snow or 90 degree weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS looks much more realistic this go around and matches up better with the euro. The first wave is virga. The second hp is slighly stronger on the GFS and allows the CAD to penetrate into NC. Would probably be a rain to zr to sleet situation on the second wave early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Canadian looks like it might be a major ice storm for NC, though it might change over to rain eventually. There's plenty of precip, in any case. The better maps should be out in a bit. It looks quite a bit different than the other modeling, so I'm not sure what should be made of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty wild. We don't know which southern stream shortwave or surface high to track, lol. Either looking for a sfc high to 'hold on' and not retreat off the coast, or another one to come in fast and replace if with cold air. There's a steady diet of sfc highs though moving out of Canada into the midwest due to the W Canada ridging. On the precip front, one thing I will say is that historically even dinky little waves can produce good precip when embedded in a long fetch of WSW or SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Thanks james. That would be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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