deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Matter of fact, the Doc doesn't like anyone. it shows a little FZDZ around GSP by early Sun, but then everyone warms up above freezing as the rains coming in from the west and Southwest. The southern plains, you ask? That is ALL rain as well. *from what I can tell* I am afraid this is going to be closer to reality than what the GFS/GFS Para and maybe CMC has as well. Looks worse for sure today, but doesn't mean it can't go back the other way. The EURO may very well be wrong, but you really can't beat it in this range..I am siding more and more with the EURO as well. UGH!!! **EDIT** the end of the run for the euro has a ton of potential with that energy rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 not really, euro has a vastly different solution than its 0z run. The only model not showing freezing rain for NC CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The only model not showing freezing rain for NC CAD areas.GFS has nothing, but that doesn't mean it's 500mb projection is the same as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GFS has nothing, but that doesn't mean it's 500mb projection is the same as 0z. First run of GFS that hasn't had it in days. Para still had it and was sig ice for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Matter of fact, the Doc doesn't like anyone. it shows a little FZDZ around GSP by early Sun, but then everyone warms up above freezing as the rains coming in from the west and Southwest. The southern plains, you ask? That is ALL rain as well. *from what I can tell* I am afraid this is going to be closer to reality than what the GFS/GFS Para and maybe CMC has as well. Looks worse for sure today, but doesn't mean it can't go back the other way. The EURO may very well be wrong, but you really can't beat it in this range..I am siding more and more with the EURO as well. UGH!!! **EDIT** the end of the run for the euro has a ton of potential with that energy rolling through. Maybe it shows something in 10 days but, as you said, the EURO has only been decent within 5 days or so and pretty useless outside that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ^ Superjames scores again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yikes... Check please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 We have seen the GFS lose a system like this before. It has locked on to a system only to lose it, then brings it back later on. The para gfs has not done this...could we be seeing improvements with the para gfs by not losing the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Para GFS also shows a possible storm out at about 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Interesting that RAH is model hugging the Euro for Sun/Mon ice/rain event. Can't blame them, this would be a huge shift for the Euro from day 6-7 if the SLP shifted to our SE. With the Euro track it's still probably ice for western NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That's a pretty strong high up there, Pack, but the Euro hauls ace to the NE with the northern stream wave. Confluence pulls out, no precip falls fast enough to lock in the wedge, and bye bye winter storm. It's not an unreasonable solution, and it's not really an amped up solution. It's just a timing thing really, and the fact that I think the Euro is keying in on a different piece of southern stream energy. Like I said, it's not an unreasonable solution. But it also doesn't mean it's right either. It was a deviation from the previous run. The troubling thing is, the Euro hasn't shown a widespread winter storm like the GFS, para, and CMC have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I find it suspicious that the Euro has had multiple solutions while for the most part the GFS/GFSP/CMC have all been consistent. With the flow of energy I suspect Euro probably is more likely....but again I'm certainly not taking it to the bank. I thought for sure it would fold at 12z and instead it stuck to it's guns but with a weaker faster moving high. Either way I'm more interested in the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I find it suspicious that the Euro has had multiple solutions while for the most part the GFS/GFSP/CMC have all been consistent. With the flow of energy I suspect Euro probably is more likely....but again I'm certainly not taking it to the bank. I thought for sure it would fold at 12z and instead it stuck to it's guns but with a weaker faster moving high. Either way I'm more interested in the following weekend. The ten day stom??? Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The ten day stom??? Ok Hey call me a sucker for punishment I just can't get hyped about an ice storm even if it's two days away. Much rather track a Miller A snowstorm 10 days away....plus the indices line up well for something more than anything has the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The ten day stom??? Ok It's been literally modeled since the 4th or at least that's when I posted on here about it...it hasn't backed down since. That's why I haven't posted about the upcoming ice threat because I have a feeling once models lock we'll get a better idea on that one anyway (like when the NAM gets in range and what not) but both the GFS and Euro have had a deep anomaly in the SE for days now, whereas the ice storm potential is so small if you had looked at it at Day 10 you would have seen no anomaly present. Thats how much of a wimp that system is...at least the Day 10 storm has tons of energy involved ready to go boom if it gets together at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's been literally modeled since the 4th or at least that's when I posted on here about it...it hasn't backed down since. That's why I haven't posted about the upcoming ice threat because I have a feeling once models lock we'll get a better idea on that one anyway (like when the NAM gets in range and what not) but both the GFS and Euro have had a deep anomaly in the SE for days now, whereas the ice storm potential is so small if you had looked at it at Day 10 you would have seen no anomaly present. Thats how much of a wimp that system is...at least the Day 10 storm has tons of energy involved ready to go boom if it gets together at the right time. Ok and this weekends " event " has been modeled on the GGEM and GFS for well over a week and for a while it robust . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GFS looks more like the Euro to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yep lots of potential with that one I think. Potential failure as has happened so often this winter? Sorry... I am getting discouraged with winter and the hype presented with no results. I know it's still early but at what point do we present a level playing field and look at a potential model forecast failure along with these anticipated winter storm events. There must be a reason for these continued swings in the models from long to near range forecasts. Are we trying to fine tune the models beyond their capacities or have we stretched them beyond what they can comfortably see and putting too much value in the results? This board used to be much better than that, helping us rookie weather enthusiasts to learn what potential busts to look for in the forecasts, IMHO. I'm thinking of Lookout et al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ok and this weekends " event " has been modeled on the GGEM and GFS for well over a week and for a while it robust . I don't think it's been modeled well over a week that just sounds silly considering it's still pretty far out. GGEM/GFS combo isn't exactly the powerhouse either. My point was seeing signal that looks like the above on both the GFS and Euro means, and what you saw when it was 300+ hours out, it's not just going to go away. It's a stronger signal for a storm.This ice threat just kinda showed up from some overruning precip and a wedge that just happened to trend stronger. I remember when we were posting on how strong the wedge was trending on the GFS, it didn't used to be that cold. If this ice storm were to go away it wouldn't surprise me, but if the storm on Day 10 goes away it would indeed shock the hell out of me. Too strong of a signal. Whether or not it's hugging the coast, way off the coast, or if we have enough cold remains to be seen, but it's going to be there. I think a storm thread should be started for this potential ice event since this is being discussed play by play anyway just in the "pattern" thread but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Next weeks storm looks pretty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't think it's been modeled well over a week that just sounds silly considering it's still pretty far out. GGEM/GFS combo isn't exactly the powerhouse either. My point was seeing signal that looks like the above on both the GFS and Euro means, and what you saw when it was 300+ hours out, it's not just going to go away. It's a stronger signal for a storm.This ice threat just kinda showed up from some overruning precip and a wedge that just happened to trend stronger. I remember when we were posting on how strong the wedge was trending on the GFS, it didn't used to be that cold. If this ice storm were to go away it wouldn't surprise me, but if the storm on Day 10 goes away it would indeed shock the hell out of me. Too strong of a signal. Whether or not it's hugging the coast, way off the coast, or if we have enough cold remains to be seen, but it's going to be there. I think a storm thread should be started for this potential ice event since this is being discussed play by play anyway just in the "pattern" thread but I digress. It has been they kept up with on another board it's right about 8 days. I see your point I just think it's funny now we are already looking at a ten day storm when the models can't even agree on a day 5 storm. I agree there is a strong signal but we have seen strong signals muted in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Decent wedging on the 18z GFS... but zero precip in NC. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 To many angles i think some people need to look at the big picture the pattern is changing does it produce?....well see but i agree jon burger the signal has bein there for serveral daus certainly has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Down goes the 18z para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 FWIW, the CFS seems to think we'll see a big snowstorm by the 12th... It's probably just a modeling hiccup, since (I presume) there aren't any signs for a big snowstorm in the short-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Para still has some light icing for N NC. Not a lot of precip, though. If there was more precip, I would guess it would be colder. Not a huge surprise considering the old GFS decided to go bone dry at 18z. I'm not going to pretend that this is not a bad sign, but I'm still in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GFS looks more like the Euro to me. Agreed...This one is loosing its potential..Not gone for sure...PLENTY of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Para still has some light icing for N NC. Not a lot of precip, though. If there was more precip, I would guess it would be colder. Not a huge surprise considering the old GFS decided to go bone dry at 18z. I'm not going to pretend that this is not a bad sign, but I'm still in. LOL, going down with the ship on this one...I still wouldn't be surprised to see this come back in the next couple of days. The day 10 look is a pipe dream at this point. I have been lectured since early Dec that the day 10 look on the models are wrong and now it shows a nice setup and we are supposed to believe that. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yikes... So, that cold 10 day EPS map (solid +PNA) is as of 1/16. Note that today's EPS MJO forecast maintains the path to the COD, including the coldest of all on average, COD 8, ~1/15-6. Coincidence? I don't know, but it wouldn't at all be surprising if that period is cold dominated based on the quite large sample size suggesting that 3/4 of the days in Jan at ATL when phase 8 is 0.5-1.25 amplitude were colder than normal. Updated EPS MJO fcast (JMA ens. is pretty similar): It is almost exactly where I'd choose if I could for the period starting ~1/13: lots of cold domination potential based on 40 Jan.'s of stats for in/near the COD phases 7-8-1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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