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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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  On 1/6/2015 at 5:49 PM, Queencitywx said:

The canadian has to be suffering from some sort of convective feedback. There's three precip maximas with not much in between. Solution doesnt make sense.

it's not an organized piece of energy it's trying to key on multiple pieces along with stream interaction. That is why we keep seeing different solutions.
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  On 1/6/2015 at 6:35 PM, packbacker said:

NW of it's 0z run. It's a OH-V to NE winter storm. Euro is always humbling for us SE folks.

Thanks for the update Pack. It was only out to hr 51 during my lunch and I'm now back in a meeting. Your update is about what I was expecting.

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  On 1/6/2015 at 6:44 PM, superjames1992 said:

Cold rain for us.

It's still much slower. Weenieology 101 tells me to attribute this to the Euro's bias, so I'll do that. Maybe it's overamping systems, as usual, too.

 

LOL, yeah let's toss the Euro, it will shift 300 miles SE in the next few days.   :yikes:

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  On 1/6/2015 at 6:47 PM, franklin NCwx said:

I'm still shoveling all the fantasy snow the euro has given me in Dec am the past three years.

The euro is like the 40 year old Cy young winner from 5 years ago with an Era the last few years of 4.5.

 

Still a long ways out....the models have really struggled all winter at this range.  5 days ago the models had this clipper hitting the NE, next thing you know it's giving the MA a 3-6" snow event.  

 

Can't believe they got a "south trend" from 5 days out and over performed on a clipper with 3-6", they got the hot hand over the past 5-6 years.

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  On 1/6/2015 at 6:54 PM, packbacker said:

Still a long ways out....the models have really struggled all winter at this range. 5 days ago the models had this clipper hitting the NE, next thing you know it's giving the MA a 3-6" snow event.

Can't believe they got a "south trend" from 5 days out and over performed on a clipper with 3-6", they got the hot hand over the past 5-6 years.

they did pretty much get skunked in 10-11. It was great seeing their meltdowns while I picked up over 30" that year. They do seem to be a lucky bunch.
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  On 1/6/2015 at 7:20 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

So it's basically euro versus all the rest? I like our chances

I don't. the Euro is the king for a reason. With that said, the Para showed the cool down long before anyone else. I think this test will go a long way if we can trust the Para going forward or if it got lucky with the cold snap. 

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  On 1/6/2015 at 7:24 PM, pcgamecock2001 said:

I don't. the Euro is the king for a reason. With that said, the Para showed the cool down long before anyone else. I think this test will go a long way if we can trust the Para going forward or if it got lucky with the cold snap. 

 

Yep, and for me the Para is still up in the air.  I think some more changes need to be made and I anticipate another delay in it taking over for the GFS.

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