packfan98 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para...this is all ice but shows the hit. Yuck! How much liquid qpf is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yuck! How much liquid qpf is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Thanks packbacker...I think. This could be a real mess! I'm not a fan of losing power! .5 of all frozen is a major winter storm. I'm sure this won't be the correct solution in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Thanks packbacker...I think. This could be a real mess! I'm not a fan of losing power! Well, your in luck as the Para is by itself now. I doubt the GFS/Euro/CMC are all going to wrong and the Para correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow! Warmer and drier on GFS ! Dissapointing for snow and ice lovers! Big difference. I suppose it caved towards the euro. Crazy run it warms Sunday then cools Monday dramatically ..... Don't buy it Just one run, but it does look more like the Euro. Then the para comes in with the big ice storm still. Crazy back and forth again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well, your in luck as the Para is by itself now. I doubt the GFS/Euro/CMC are all going to wrong and the Para correct. I agree... I had my doubts when it was just the GFS and para showing it. I really have my doubts now. I can't remember the last storm that verified where the GFS had no other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I agree... I had my doubts when it was just the GFS and para showing it. I really have my doubts now. I can't remember the last storm that verified where the GFS had no other model support. I'm pretty sure in the 15 years I've been deep into this hobby, that has never happened. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well, your in luck as the Para is by itself now. I doubt the GFS/Euro/CMC are all going to wrong and the Para correct. It would be funny if the euro flipped to the ice solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 But the Canadian is now icy, lol...not as cold as Para though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm pretty sure in the 15 years I've been deep into this hobby, that has never happened. Ever. I can't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 But the Canadian is now icy, lol...not as cold as Para though Just looking at that. I wouldn't fret over the GFS or Euro for that matter yet at this range. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro come in icy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 So the Euro is wet but too warm, GGEM is wet but too warm, GFS goes from ice storm to dry, while the para is still showing a big ice storm. Wonder what it would be if you take a blend of all of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 So the Euro is wet but too warm, GGEM is wet but too warm, GFS goes from ice storm to dry, while the para is still showing a big ice storm. Wonder what it would be if you take a blend of all of them? CMC isn't warm. It's a big ice storm for central/western NC and up through NoVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It would be funny if the euro flipped to the ice solution. It would be right on que if it did But the Canadian is now icy, lol...not as cold as Para though Mayhem continues I can't either. There is a first for everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Just looking at that. I wouldn't fret over the GFS or Euro for that matter yet at this range. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro come in icy either. The PARA and Euro have seemed to be in tandem very often in the medium range, I would not be surprised to see the Euro bite...also the GFS ensembles may show a different story when they come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 CMC isn't warm. It's a big ice storm for central/western NC and up through NoVA. Well, I guess it's 2 for and 2 against. Really, the GFS was for ice and then all of a sudden it goes dry. Now it's Canadian and para vs GFS and Euro. Which one changes next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The PARA and Euro have seemed to be in tandem very often in the medium range, I would not be surprised to see the Euro bite...also the GFS ensembles may show a different story when they come in. That's going to be interesting when we don't have the old GFS anymore. It was always nice having models with known biases with different solutions, you could always blend. Now with the Para and Euro somewhat in sync we won't have to do that, assuming the Para keeps this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 So the Euro is wet but too warm, GGEM is wet but too warm, GFS goes from ice storm to dry, while the para is still showing a big ice storm. Wonder what it would be if you take a blend of all of them? A warm storm of dry ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 A warm storm of dry ice. That would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 CMC went nuts with the precip bands...I am sure it's wrong but interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 CMC went nuts with the precip bands...I am sure it's wrong but interesting...It is weird! Looks like three seperate low pressures and tracks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The GFS didnt cave to the Euro, it actually shows an entirely different solution from all other guidance. The GFS digs the trough over the Gulf of Alaska sufficiently to slip a vorticity lobe underneath the PNA ridge and it attempts to phase it with the cut-off ULL currently near Baja California that will be eventually re-entering the streamflow in the southern branch of the jet, and this interaction slows down our incipient system enough to cause the solution to flip entirely as the configuration of the northern stream becomes unfavorable just a day or two later. I'm not saying this solution is complete garbage, but considering it has no support from the other guidance and may be a spurious run, I dont think it's likely to verify. Not to mention the GEM/ECMWF are actually in the para's camp (i.e. no phasing w/ the GOA trough) just slower, which is what one would expect knowing their inherent bias to drag their feet in the southwestern US. I'm actually a little surprised the GFS operational maintained this kind of consistency in the medium range, a seemingly erroneous run or two like this was bound to show up sooner rather than later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well, your in luck as the Para is by itself now. I doubt the GFS/Euro/CMC are all going to wrong and the Para correct. Last night's Euro was still a major ice storm for myself and packfan's neck of the woods. We'll see what the Doc has to say in a few minutes, though. Looks like the Canadian has went from a warm rainstorm to a major ice storm in a couple runs, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Last night's Euro was still a major ice storm for myself and packfan's neck of the woods. We'll see what the Doc has to say in a few minutes, though. Looks like the Canadian has went from a warm rainstorm to a major ice storm in a couple runs, LOL. Oh, canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Imo it's not a moisture issue, yea not certain of amounts, but for the board as a whole is hp placement and confluence up north. This is the issue that needs to get resolved. As far as my neck of woods we stand a high chance of dealing with advisory or storm warning frozen precip. Just hope it gets neutralized with pinged,preferably flakes to offset frzng rain. Long ways to go with this one. Para could be wrong but it has been the most consistent. Can was wet as all get out yesterday but was way warmer than today's run. I'll wait till Thurs before going to get the chainsaw sharpened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Dewpoints are lower here, slightly, on the Canadian than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Frz Rain accumulation on the Canadian - it's showing a prolonged southwest flow precip event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Imo it's not a moisture issue, yea not certain of amounts, but for the board as a whole is hp placement and confluence up north. This is the issue that needs to get resolved. As far as my neck of woods we stand a high chance of dealing with advisory or storm warning frozen precip. Just hope it gets neutralized with pinged,preferably flakes to offset frzng rain. Long ways to go with this one. Para could be wrong but it has been the most consistent. Can was wet as all get out yesterday but was way warmer than today's run. I'll wait till Thurs before going to get the chainsaw sharpened up. Para has been consistent for sure. GFS had been until the last run. Then the Caandian flips to ice. It's chaos right now with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Frz Rain accumulation on the Canadian - it's showing a prolonged southwest flow precip event Man, that's a weird ZR accumulation map. Almost backward of what we're used to seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Man, that's a weird ZR accumulation map. Almost backward of what we're used to seeing. I wonder if the model is picking up on more snow/sleet in the foothills causing the backwards looking map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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