burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 By the way 6z PARA is a huge ice storm for NC/SC. Looks like .75 falls as ice for a lot of NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Also GFS PARA I think has the right of it more aloft. You can see both tonight and last night it's dragging that 850 line further south the closer we get to the event at the onset. I think this starts as SN/IP for many before switching over to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Just to clarify about the Euro...it went from this: To this: In the second image notice the 1040 high to the north...next frame has it as a 1036 sliding off...either way it was a major step to the GFS IMO. I'll bet you see it totally cave today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Also GFS PARA I think has the right of it more aloft. You can see both tonight and last night it's dragging that 850 line further south the closer we get to the event at the onset. I think this starts as SN/IP for many before switching over to ZR. Yeah 6z PARA looks very close to starting as snow in WNC while column temps on the 6z GFS don't really support anything other then a cold rain. Freezing line stays above 700mb but keeps temps around 3-5c below. It doesn't look like the GFS thinks WNC will be effected by the wedge nearly as much which is very common, but it is a crapshoot right now. If the high ticks a bit stronger WNC could really be a mess along with much of NC. Anyone on the VA/NC line looks to be in the best position for wintery precipitation imo as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I thought Euro took a big step to the GFS solution....it's just a little delayed. Also GFS PARA looked fantastic. Much colder aloft so it's closer to snow for a lot in NC...then it has an ULL drop in which would bring more snow to NC. I really think after Monday is our first real shot at some snow. Euro had a similar look at the end of it's run as well. RAH mentions the later(Monday) chance for wintery precip. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXACERBATED BY UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW EJECTS...SUCH THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE ARRIVES AND INTERACTS WITH THE COLD HIGH(S) OVER THE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS TIMING LATER SUN-SUN NIGHT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY LIQUID THROUGH MON. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO ARRIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY SUN...FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS FURTHER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION...SUCH THAT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WOULD USHER A FRESH ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST LATE MON-MID-WEEK...WHICH WOULD (RE- )INTRODUCE A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...IF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER NC...MON NIGHT-TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 So is the Euro showing a miller A? Or the GFS ? Does it start in the gulf and move off the Carolinas? I thought yesterday, it was looking like some strung out energy and overrunning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Folky folks, For the LR the models seem to be trending towards a coastal low at 10 days. This could be our shot at snow instead of ice. The Euro EPS is improved with the anomaly signature on this day and there is tons of energy involved with this system that some operationals are having trouble with. I think this is a "perfect timing" type of system where the placement of the high and the moisture on the backside of the low can give NC/SC some winter wx. Whether or not this can trend into a stronger system and/or bomb remains to be seen but I like the signature showing up. There is a ton of energy involved with this so solutions will change as we get closer, maybe for the better. 00z Euro EPS 00z Euro Vorticity 06z GFS PARA Euro weeklies had this system as well. The only issue may be cold but this far out who knows, the trend is there for some coastal system during this time frame and it's on time with what would be our next cold shot, although not as deep/strong as this coming one this week, which is a good thing because we won't have suppression if this system decides to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Jon, I was just about to comment on that. Depending on which model you believe, there is high pressure building across the north or a pesky low up there. Like you said, the good thing is, there is a strong signal across many model/ens suites for a storm at that time in that area. Something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ya, Jon, I agree...if you are looking for a "Big dawg" storm, its not happening this weekend... Just not going too. That will be a purely light, but most effective way, to get ZR to accumulate. The potential for a bigger storm is there mid next week, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It will be interesting to see the GFS products today. The EURO is stubborn on this, the CMC is somewhat there, not quite...I MAINLY account for it not being to see a proper wedge, so I count that more toward the GFS side. We shall see. Lots of time to watch this, but shockingly we have another american vs the the world debate. Who will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 So is the Euro showing a miller A? Or the GFS ? Does it start in the gulf and move off the Carolinas? I thought yesterday, it was looking like some strung out energy and overrunning ? I guess you can say Miller A although the low is weak (1008mb off the coast of wilmington) and slides off into the atlantic without touching the NE...so I would go with the Euro was kinda screwy this run really giving that little bit of energy all it can and got it a little ramped up. We'll see what the 12z does with it. Jon, I was just about to comment on that. Depending on which model you believe, there is high pressure building across the north or a pesky low up there. Like you said, the good thing is, there is a strong signal across many model/ens suites for a storm at that time in that area. Something to keep an eye on for sure. Yeah definitely something to watch. The models haven't backed off the solution since I posted about them on the 4th, which is a good sign. Several GFS ens members have some kind of coastal storm, with a few giving snow to NC and the SE. It will be interesting to see how models further develop this storm but I know all the focus is on the first one so just want to keep people updated on the potential fireworks near mid-month as well. For those who thought winter was cancelled they should be getting a wake-up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I thought Euro took a big step to the GFS solution....it's just a little delayed. Also GFS PARA looked fantastic. Much colder aloft so it's closer to snow for a lot in NC...then it has an ULL drop in which would bring more snow to NC. I really think after Monday is our first real shot at some snow. Euro had a similar look at the end of it's run as well. Yep, that's exactly what I'm seeing, and the primary difference in the various solutions comes down to how fast the piece of energy sitting off the Baja California emerges into the mean flow... The ECMWF & GEM are as usual, much slower/further south compared the GFS suite & the Parallel, and knowing how slow the Euro is w/ disturbances in the southwestern US (& the GEM as well, often is worse than the Euro in fact), I'm inclined to think the icy solution that has been consistently offered by the GFS/Para will win out. We'll have a better handle on this system once a trough sitting back over the Gulf of Alaska erodes the PNA ridge enough to create a weakness for the system to slip back eastward & come ashore in northern Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well.....it looks like CAE is paying attention .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPERTROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ABRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOMEMODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND RESULT IN WARMERTEMPERATURES AIDED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH TEMPERATURESWILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILLSLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNINGTO THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED IN THE 20S.UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKAS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND MID LEVEL 500MB FLOWBECOMES MORE ZONAL AND CONFLUENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THECOUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING 1040MB SURFACE HIGHPRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATESWHICH RIDGES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY. UPPERLEVEL FLOW BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATESRESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE ANDSTRENGTHENING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND AS THE WEDGESTRENGTHENS DUE TO INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARM MOIST AIRATOP THE MODIFIED SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS...FORECAST SOUNDINGSINDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP AND POSSIBLE FREEZINGRAIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS WETTER AS WELL GIVING NEARLY A QUARTERINCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...WHICH ITS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGESTFALLING AS FREEZING RAIN. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THEMOISTURE RETURN AND QPF AND SLOWER OVERALL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OFTHE PRECIPITATION AND THEREFORE ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOBECOME WARMER AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION IS LIQUID RAIN. THE GFSHAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF FOR MANY RUNS SHOWING THE COLDERSOLUTION AND GEFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR WINTRYPRECIP AS WELL. IN GENERAL MODELS TEND TO HANDLE SHALLOW ARCTICAIR POORLY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TOO QUICKLY AND WITH THE DRYNATURE OF THE AIRMASS WITH WETBULB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOWFREEZING...THINK THERE IS REALISTIC POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ORSOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP AT THE ONSET SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTIONIN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ALSO TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE WEATHERAND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL INCLUDE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX EARLYSUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. AGAIN THE PRECIPITATIONCHANCES REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THIS FORECAST.PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKWITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO NEAR AN INCH BY MONDAY WILL KEEP RAINCHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELLBELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BUT WARM BACK UP A BIT ON MONDAY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Brad Panovich Meteorologist added 2 new photos. 5 mins · Sunday ice threat still in the cards, if anything the set-up is becoming more favorable for wintry weather. Still early but the chances of wintry weather are up to around 30% right now. The set-up is still cold & dry surface air with warmer air above that. This is is going to be sleet and freezing rain. The threat is still ice. Stay tuned! Like · · Share · 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ^ That write-up from Columbia was good. The northern and southern stream interaction & confluence pattern is different between the Euro and GFS, and the Euro is moving the surface high off the VA/NC coast while the GFS suite is holding the high over the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast in good damming position. Euro is warmer/drier. GFS is colder/wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hello all. I don't have time to post here a lot but do drop in from time to time. Looking through previous post I saw a few about concern over the ground being frozen for this event so I'm posting the 06Z Para GFS modeled soil temperatures. This is right before precipitation begins to fall over most of the Carolinas. Looks like frozen ground may be a problem around and to the north of a line from ATL, GSP, CLT, to RDU. This is the avg soil temperature for the top 10cm (4in) so the actual surface temp could deviate a degree or so. In this way this event is somewhat different as usually with freezing rain ground temps outside of the mountains and foothills are warm enough to prevent ice accumulation on paved surfaces. This is all assuming the evolution depicted by the GFS is correct of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ^ That write-up from Columbia was good. The northern and southern stream interaction & confluence pattern is different between the Euro and GFS, and the Euro is moving the surface high off the VA/NC coast while the GFS suite is holding the high over the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast in good damming position. Euro is warmer/drier. GFS is colder/wetter. Yeah, I agree....RAH had a similar write up I believe...need more model agreement before you go running with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hello all. I don't have time to post here a lot but do drop in from time to time. Looking through previous post I saw a few about concern over the ground being frozen for this event so I'm posting the 06Z Para GFS modeled soil temperatures. This is right before precipitation begins to fall over most of the Carolinas. Looks like frozen ground may be a problem around and to the north of a line from ATL, GSP, CLT, to RDU. This is the avg soil temperature for the top 10cm (4in) so the actual surface temp could deviate a degree or so. In this way this event is somewhat different as usually with freezing rain ground temps outside of the mountains and foothills are warm enough to prevent ice accumulation on paved surfaces. This is all assuming the evolution depicted by the GFS is correct of course. Thanks for posting this UNCCmetgrad. Great discussion you provided above. I welcome your continued frequent posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow! Warmer and drier on GFS ! Dissapointing for snow and ice lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow! Warmer and drier on GFS ! Dissapointing for snow and ice lovers! Big difference. I suppose it caved towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wow! Warmer and drier on GFS ! Dissapointing for snow and ice lovers! Crazy run it warms Sunday then cools Monday dramatically ..... Don't buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 This is the latest regarding this weekend form NWS in Wakefield, VA. They cover the NE section of NC. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEKEND. NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE...WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI. ASSOCIATED DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER AS H85 TEMPS RETURN TO ~-5C. HIGHS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT AS STRONG 1030-1040MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS SAT ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS NWD SUN AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE SE COAST. SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SE SUN...AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN SWLY FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON FOR WAA/OVERRUNNING PRECIP. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN THE THERMAL PROFILE. TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND REMAIN COOL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THRU THE PERIOD WARM FROM THE UPPER TEENS THURS MORNING TO THE LOW 30S THRU THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hello all. I don't have time to post here a lot but do drop in from time to time. Looking through previous post I saw a few about concern over the ground being frozen for this event so I'm posting the 06Z Para GFS modeled soil temperatures. This is right before precipitation begins to fall over most of the Carolinas. Looks like frozen ground may be a problem around and to the north of a line from ATL, GSP, CLT, to RDU. This is the avg soil temperature for the top 10cm (4in) so the actual surface temp could deviate a degree or so. In this way this event is somewhat different as usually with freezing rain ground temps outside of the mountains and foothills are warm enough to prevent ice accumulation on paved surfaces. This is all assuming the evolution depicted by the GFS is correct of course. Hey man, you got red tagged! Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The GFS is only warmer because it's drier, IMO. Of course, it's pretty much been the only model who's been advertising the ice scenario so I'm not surprised if it completely goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ^ That write-up from Columbia was good. The northern and southern stream interaction & confluence pattern is different between the Euro and GFS, and the Euro is moving the surface high off the VA/NC coast while the GFS suite is holding the high over the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast in good damming position. Euro is warmer/drier. GFS is colder/wetter. It was good, and I would like to see more just like this Yeah, I agree....RAH had a similar write up I believe...need more model agreement before you go running with this one. Agree Big difference. I suppose it caved towards the euro. Don't worry......it will change again soon Hello all. I don't have time to post here a lot but do drop in from time to time. Looking through previous post I saw a few about concern over the ground being frozen for this event so I'm posting the 06Z Para GFS modeled soil temperatures. This is right before precipitation begins to fall over most of the Carolinas. Looks like frozen ground may be a problem around and to the north of a line from ATL, GSP, CLT, to RDU. This is the avg soil temperature for the top 10cm (4in) so the actual surface temp could deviate a degree or so. In this way this event is somewhat different as usually with freezing rain ground temps outside of the mountains and foothills are warm enough to prevent ice accumulation on paved surfaces. This is all assuming the evolution depicted by the GFS is correct of course. Congrats on the red tag!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para a big hit still for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para GFS is advertising some snow flurries in Charlotte on Saturday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Long time no see fellas. Perfect opportunity to see how well the Para compares to the outgoing GFS inside 5-6 days. Worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ot gonna happen this run, as obviously yall have said. I have said from the get go, It always made me nervous the GFS is the only one showing the icing. *outside of NC* Not saying this is right, the euro is always right..nothing like that, but it would do good for confidence if they agreed somewhat. Hope that made sense? I agree the GFS is only warmer because its drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para...this is all ice but shows the hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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