mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Looks like this run is really holding back the moisture. Still mostly in south TX at 18Z SaturdayStarting to move at 00z, looks like first inkling of damming sig in the isobars, but nothing's gonna hold the high in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 00z GFS brings in some ZR around here by 6z to 12z SUN then magically blasts the area back into the mid to upper 30's...the WEDGE looks to be in great position this run as well. by 18z its rain here *if you believe the temp profile* ICING for ALL of SC (CAE to GSP) then its moving into NC as icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Still icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The 00z GFS brings in some ZR around here by 6z to 12z SUN then magically blasts the area back into the mid to upper 30's...the WEDGE looks to be in great position this run as well. by 18z its rain here *if you believe the temp profile* ICING for ALL of SC (CAE to GSP) then its moving into NC as icing Almost had ice to Savannah, for a frame!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I would have to disagree. The "snow hole" tends to occur in the lee of the Apps due to the downsloping effect of the Appalachian Mountains. That happens most frequently in clipper-type systems that approach from the NW. This system will be coming from the SW, not the NW. The reason that precipitation is not very evident in the lee of the Apps this time is that the surface low just happens to be pretty near the coast and is rather weak. This system is still so far out in the future that there is plenty of time for the low to strengthen and/or take a slightly more northward track, in which case the upstate and western piedmont of NC would get all the ice/sleet they could want. In conclusion, it's way too early to worry about who is going to get what type of precipitation and how much. It's all about the general storm track and potential at this point in the game. 99 percent correct! Excellent points. Only thing I would say different is that this area tends get missed a lot on the southern storms that go a little to far south and either go out to sea, or ride off the coast. Examples would be the Carolina crusher of 2000, Dec 89 storm, and Feb 73. All tracked too far south at our longitude and turned a little northward too far to our east. So it usually either gets downsloped or missed in suppression to the SE. In addition, the weaker CADs don't make it here, and usually only make it to around rock hill / Gaffney/ Union. The ones that work for us are the middle ground ones like Jan 88, Jan 96, and Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para is gonna be ice er than gfs for most it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Almost had ice to Savannah, for a frame!! yup..I wouldn't be surprised if that happened...give me that look with a almost fresh airmass...Its possible, still think the Carolinas have the best shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Keeps me in the ice through hr 156! That would be alot of ice, no matter how light!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 This storm is slowly trending to a possible mess but atleast its something to track. Wedge seems a little stronger on the 00z. Might have to stay up to see if the Euro folds to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Like the 0z much better cause it gets the ground white here in NC , always preferred over frzng rn, but there's still plenty of that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 Like the 0z much better cause it gets the ground white here in NC , always preferred over frzng rn, but there's still plenty of that as well. Yeah, I just hope we can hang on to this chance? still a long ways off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't see much of a warmup in the long range FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Like the 0z much better cause it gets the ground white here in NC , always preferred over frzng rn, but there's still plenty of that as well.Kind of like Dec 2002!? The 00z GFS was a tree breaker , I believe , and looks pretty bad, verbatim , I know it's still 5 or so days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's like Dec. 2002's baby brother... For those who aren't familiar with the storm or need a refresher, http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Can't remember the model trend back then, but I wasn't as avid of a weather watcher as I am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 02 was a huge, expansive storm. This won't be an 02. Maybe more like 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para clown has like 3 to 4 inches right through brick and packs back yard. All of NC in couple inches of snow. Grain of salt needed, sure this clown is just like rest in ptype crazinesss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 02 was a huge, expansive storm. This won't be an 02. Maybe more like 05. Different storm no doubt, but in terms of High Placement and precip type it has some '02 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GFS has been consistent at least. if we see the other models jump on tonight, we'll finally have a fish on the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Canadian looks the same at the surface but I cannot see precip frames yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Quite frankly the 0z GFS looks like an icy disaster for interior North Carolina and down I-85 to GSP and Anderson. We're sitting at 28 and light to moderate frozen precip during the heart of the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Canadian is 10 degrees warmer than the GFS at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Canadian is 10 degrees warmer than the GFS at the sfc Its never gonna see the wedge at this range, its amazing the GFS even does...technically it probably does not its just that its such a strong high it can pick it up, even the GFS would likely verify too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GFS and para are very different in terms of progression and strength of high pressures which is key for maintaining wintry precipitation for the southeast in most situations. Similarly, the models seem to have issues with the time, intensity and number of impulses off the southeast coast. Also, while I'm not up to date on the para which may not do as well with large scale features, I imagine the higher resolution would better represent cold air damning. Regardless we are seeing signs of a winter storm or storms however things will likely materialize significantly differntly then what we are seeing now given the complexity of these type of events. Fingers crossed that the potential impending system trends in an even more wintry direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 00z euro is dry as a bone through 00z sun..only qpf is in south texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 00z euro is dry as a bone through 00z sun..only qpf is in south texasYep and has our high over Outer Banks of NC, so no cold or precip on the "king" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 nope...and by time some light stuff shows up by monday am....the high, as you said is off shore..there is another one back to our NW, but not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Euro's like, "hey, let's do March 6-7, 2014 again, K?" Bad ice storm for the same hard-hit areas. The coastal bombs in the Atlantic. EDIT: Well, it's not nearly as bad, but still warning-criteria. Verbatim, it looks like rain-to-ice. If I corrected the temperatures down a couple degrees Fahrenheit and assumed the Euro is too warm as I hear it is in CAD situations, it would be a bad, bad one. Seems a bit weenieish, though, so I won't. Verbatim, it's probably 1/2" of ZR and/or IP for GSO, though! Lowest temp is 30! The icing is confined to the NW Piedmont. RDU and CLT are all rain as is the rest of the SE. Verbatim, of course. There's a 1045 mb HP that slides down from Ontario into New York during the storm. 925 mb temperatures start out really warm, but fall below freezing for I-85 N/W after hr 180, so maybe there could be some sleet in there towards the end. Atlanta is in the mid-40s, so it's not close there. NW SC is in the mid to upper 30s. RDU and CLT are kind of borderline, but a little too warm. Given that 12z had no precip at all here for the most part, I think it's a positive step if you want ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GFS and para are very different in terms of progression and strength of high pressures which is key for maintaining wintry precipitation for the southeast in most situations. Similarly, the models seem to have issues with the time, intensity and number of impulses off the southeast coast. Also, while I'm not up to date on the para which may not do as well with large scale features, I imagine the higher resolution would better represent cold air damning. Regardless we are seeing signs of a winter storm or storms however things will likely materialize significantly differntly then what we are seeing now given the complexity of these type of events. Fingers crossed that the potential impending system trends in an even more wintry direction! The increased resolution hurts the parallel GFS, according to NOAA, it has a stronger warm bias in the boundary layer than the regular GFS (which is traded for less of a warm bias in the mid-levels, a feature that should quell the formation of "ghost" canes often observed in the long range on the regular GFS). This implies the parallel GFS is actually even worse w/ CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well the 6z GFS was a step back for precip amounts. Maybe gets close to .25 liquid for RDU. It still shows many in SC and NC receiving freezing rain. Even GA starts off as freezing rain. Even has NC switching to light snow at the end of this two day (light)event. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150106+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 As stated before we can expect the models to wobble on the setup and amounts this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I thought Euro took a big step to the GFS solution....it's just a little delayed. Also GFS PARA looked fantastic. Much colder aloft so it's closer to snow for a lot in NC...then it has an ULL drop in which would bring more snow to NC. I really think after Monday is our first real shot at some snow. Euro had a similar look at the end of it's run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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