packbacker Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Did no one mention the weeklies today? I saw them, they aren't bad at all for the rest of the month compared to previous runs IMO. Week 4 actually had several days with cold across the conus, which is a first since early Dec runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Did no one mention the weeklies today? I saw them, they aren't bad at all for the rest of the month compared to previous runs IMO. yeah, looks like something big early next month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Oh, I thought so...My thing is, if we have at least a run showing it a day...there is a chance something could happen..I know its a LONG shot for sure, but who cares...aren't all wintry events not good odds around the SE? I think the odds are actually pretty decent for this. We look to have a couple of strong arctic highs that build nicely into the NE. The southern stream trajectories are out of the SW with impulses in the flow (timing and strength determined by which model you believe). And many of the rain events we've had this winter so far have been under-modeled. This may end up very well as all rain or a bunch of dry cold. But for the reasons I mentioned, I think the odds are actually pretty good that the CAD areas see at least a portion of the event frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Week 4 actually had several days with cold across the conus, which is a first since early Dec runs. yeah, looks like something big early next month? Yeah besides the mid month potential at the end of the month 1st of feb looks like there can either be another cold shot or a pretty productive pattern looking at NH...also, looking at the control there is a stout +PNA/-EPO look on Jan 30-Feb 1st...on the mean it's drawn out but you can see the +PNA/-EPO there and the trough getting drawn out over the east coast, pretty cold look 646 hours out. Looks -AOish around this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 18z gfs still gives me and others in the cad area a pretty potent ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 18z gfs still gives me and others in the cad area a pretty potent ice storm. Yeah, it certainly looks like it could be a warning criteria event along 85 and north. I keep harping on this but people shouldnt underestimate how cold the ground will be come this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro ensembles keep banging the drums for a system in the Southeast around day 10. The op and control run now shows a system on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I think the odds are actually pretty decent for this. We look to have a couple of strong arctic highs that build nicely into the NE. The southern stream trajectories are out of the SW with impulses in the flow (timing and strength determined by which model you believe). And many of the rain events we've had this winter so far have been under-modeled. This may end up very well as all rain or a bunch of dry cold. But for the reasons I mentioned, I think the odds are actually pretty good that the CAD areas see at least a portion of the event frozen. Great points!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah, it certainly looks like it could be a warning criteria event along 85 and north. I keep harping on this but people shouldnt underestimate how cold the ground will be come this weekend. Perfect Advise!! We will be frozen after Wed-Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah, it certainly looks like it could be a warning criteria event along 85 and north. I keep harping on this but people shouldnt underestimate how cold the ground will be come this weekend. Great point. Looking at going below for close to 48 around our area. Ground should be nice and frozen. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah, it certainly looks like it could be a warning criteria event along 85 and north. I keep harping on this but people shouldnt underestimate how cold the ground will be come this weekend. Totally agree. I have no idea what ground temperatures will be but they will definitely be colder than normal. Any ice can cause issues but what the gfs was showing would cause some major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 n00b here but why is there a distinct hole in FZRN along the I-85 corridor (from NE GA into Upstate SC) on the 18Z GFS? I realize this system is 7 days away but this is puzzling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Y'all ready for the Cold? Ready for more *Potential fun and games for the weekend?* More details in the video below. Im sorry its a long video, but I really think it will be a good video for everyone to have an idea on what I think could happen for the Arctic blast and the weekend. Enjoy! Thanks for watching. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 n00b here but why is there a distinct hole in FZRN along the I-85 corridor (from NE GA into Upstate SC) on the 18Z GFS? I realize this system is 7 days away but this is puzzling Absolutely par for the course. See just about every other winter weather event over the past 15 years for reference. About the only exceptions I can think of are the ice storms of Dec 2002 and 2005, and the Jan snow of 2011. We have talked m uch about the snow hole of NEGA/ Western Upstate. It's uncanny, yet continues to be a bullseye for warm system rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Y'all ready for the Cold? Ready for more *Potential fun and games for the weekend?* More details in the video below. Im sorry its a long video, but I really think it will be a good video for everyone to have an idea on what I think could happen for the Arctic blast and the weekend. Enjoy! Thanks for watching. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Great video. Thanks Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah, it certainly looks like it could be a warning criteria event along 85 and north. I keep harping on this but people shouldnt underestimate how cold the ground will be come this weekend. Yeah, that will be key to having the ice stick to the roads, soil, etc. and make the event all the more high-impact if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 n00b here but why is there a distinct hole in FZRN along the I-85 corridor (from NE GA into Upstate SC) on the 18Z GFS? I realize this system is 7 days away but this is puzzling Absolutely par for the course. See just about every other winter weather event over the past 15 years for reference. About the only exceptions I can think of are the ice storms of Dec 2002 and 2005, and the Jan snow of 2011. We have talked m uch about the snow hole of NEGA/ Western Upstate. It's uncanny, yet continues to be a bullseye for warm system rains I would have to disagree. The "snow hole" tends to occur in the lee of the Apps due to the downsloping effect of the Appalachian Mountains. That happens most frequently in clipper-type systems that approach from the NW. This system will be coming from the SW, not the NW. The reason that precipitation is not very evident in the lee of the Apps this time is that the surface low just happens to be pretty near the coast and is rather weak. This system is still so far out in the future that there is plenty of time for the low to strengthen and/or take a slightly more northward track, in which case the upstate and western piedmont of NC would get all the ice/sleet they could want. In conclusion, it's way too early to worry about who is going to get what type of precipitation and how much. It's all about the general storm track and potential at this point in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't know about "frozen" grounds... But they will be much colder, yes. Last January was quite cold around this time and that set things up for us at the end of January. Again, I don't think things will be "frozen," but they will most certainly be colder. I've found this tool since last winter. I'm not sure how accurate the 5-day forecast is, but it doesn't seem outlandish. http://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soiltempmaps.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Good video Chris! Also Jeremy that is the understatement with this system if it indeed pops enough precip. All it takes is .10 - .20 with a cold ground and upper 20's for highs to make the roads practically undriveable. I'm also thinking there could be some frozen fog/mist with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't know about "frozen" grounds... But they will be much colder, yes. Last January was quite cold around this time and that set things up for us at the end of January. Again, I don't think things will be "frozen," but they will most certainly be colder. I've found this tool since last winter. I'm not sure how accurate the 5-day forecast is, but it doesn't seem outlandish. http://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soiltempmaps.aspx Nice!! It might not be "frozen" tech. but yeah, a fresh arctic airmass should help things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Good video Chris! Also Jeremy that is the understatement with this system if it indeed pops enough precip. All it takes is .10 - .20 with a cold ground and upper 20's for highs to make the roads practically undriveable. I'm also thinking there could be some frozen fog/mist with this one. Thanks bud! I can easily see that happen...It won't take much..In fact, this is the PERFECT setup for ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great video. Thanks Chris Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great work Chris! You need to catch your breath bud. So, will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the King flinch? I'm speaking on the gulf moisture move/location being projected. One has to blink in the next 48hrs I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Good video Chris! Also Jeremy that is the understatement with this system if it indeed pops enough precip. All it takes is .10 - .20 with a cold ground and upper 20's for highs to make the roads practically undriveable. I'm also thinking there could be some frozen fog/mist with this one. I suspect there will be a dry column to saturate first though. If so, a good part of that .10-.20 might get 'wrung out' in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I suspect there will be a dry column to saturate first though. If so, a good part of that .10-.20 might get 'wrung out' in the process. Yeah, you got that right. That's always a concern with light events. I suspect that there will be enough precip to saturate the column and eventually make it's way to the ground. I believe the perturbations in the flow that will generate lift are not well modeled yet and will come into better focus in a couple of days. The coming cold shot will cool the ground, like Jeremy has mentioned, which should make what falls efficiently accrue. The antecedent conditions are pretty darn good, so if we do get enough precipitation, we should see efficient accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I suspect there will be a dry column to saturate first though. If so, a good part of that .10-.20 might get 'wrung out' in the process. The models take this into account when they spit out QPF, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great points!! Well, NWS has snow in my forecast for Sat. So much for the torch winter T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The models take this into account when they spit out QPF, though.Do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1045 hp in MT at 18z Fri, precip building in TX, LA, high needs speed up, I think 12z Sat highs in a weird place like WV, but precip backed up in TX near Austin or so? Don't think this will work, high will be long gone IF precip ever comes our way! Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1045 hp in MT at 18z Fri, precip building in TX, LA, high needs speed up, I think Looks like this run is really holding back the moisture. Still mostly in south TX at 18Z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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