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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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It's trying past 200 but that low in the lakes is like, "sup?".

Lol, we've had so many Lakes Lows the past several years. Seems like it's impossible to get a Lakes High, a MJO phase 1, a -NAO, or anything else that would be remotely helpful in getting a solid winter pattern into the SE.

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Lol, we've had so many Lakes Lows the past several years. Seems like it's impossible to get a Lakes High, a MJO phase 1, a -NAO, or anything else that would be remotely helpful in getting a solid winter pattern into the SE.

 

GFS looks very interesting in the LR...granted it's two weeks away but damn it lines up pretty durn good with last year's major arctic outbreak. 

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NCSkywarn - to your ZR question (topic got locked on me)...it's close to ZR in all those hours...issue could be a few things, I haven't seen the soundings, but I'm only guessing that the ground temp is either not cold enough (just below freezing at 300 and 312), the melting/warm layer might be too large causing complete melting, not enough time to supercool the rain drops, I'm guessing there's too much warmth somewhere in the sounding and not enough could at the surface...I think 925mb's aren't that cold at 300 and 312 as well from text output I saw. Bottom line is, it's close...might as well be ZR this far out.

Jon, I think it showed the 2m temp as 29-31 for all those hours, so I'm guessing it's just an error, not that it matters at this point.

Thanks Jon and Superjames1992

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Canadian has most of the SE with a high in the 20's and 30's next Thursday and Friday. Def. not a torch. 

 

The thing I found most interesting is this piece of energy near the NP.

post-1807-0-81299000-1420105415_thumb.pn

 

It originates from Siberia and is heading towards NA. It'll be interesting to see what subsequent model runs do with this, but it's what caught my eye. Don't believe me...? Watch the loop of it at 500 mb then of the 2m temp. You'll see the swirl head our (North America's) direction as we go into the 12-14th time-frame.

 

This is kinda-sorta what causes the GFS to get so cold in Fantasy land. That, imo, is the thing to watch as we go towards mid-January.

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Happy New Year! GFS PARA also says pattern change coming after Jan 15th. 

I hope so.  It is winter and we need a pattern change soon to enjoy some winter weather before the sun angle starts getting to high in the sky.  I do know we have plenty of time for some good snowstorms so we shouldn't sweat it I guess.  :snowing:

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Wow, the 00z Euro looks better.  There's even a clipper that drops light snow across NC/VA on 1/8.

 

EDIT: Well, it does get ugly by D10, but it's definitely better than the 12z run.

 

Euro is really cold next week, but then get's really warm....all in all, really boring next few weeks coming up.

post-2311-0-90578700-1420118585_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-19874900-1420118594_thumb.pn

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The thing I found most interesting is this piece of energy near the NP.

 

 

It originates from Siberia and is heading towards NA. It'll be interesting to see what subsequent model runs do with this, but it's what caught my eye. Don't believe me...? Watch the loop of it at 500 mb then of the 2m temp. You'll see the swirl head our (North America's) direction as we go into the 12-14th time-frame.

 

This is kinda-sorta what causes the GFS to get so cold in Fantasy land. That, imo, is the thing to watch as we go towards mid-January.

 

Yep that looks to me and the models keep hinting to it of a classic reloading pattern for cold here in the SE.  If that happens it will just be a timing game which will be a question of when not if we get a winter storm. 

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Yep that looks to me and the models keep hinting to it of a classic reloading pattern for cold here in the SE. If that happens it will just be a timing game which will be a question of when not if we get a winter storm.

exactly burger. Really looking at the pattern it does not to that bad. Will we have relaxation in the pattern? Of course we will but hey you got to take the positives with the negatives.
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19 imby this a.m. Jan is starting off polar opposite of Dec thankfully. I remeber 2 weeks ago looking at the models and all of them, particularly euro showing a couple of threats/potential as we got past Christmas and headed toward nyd. All are pointing toward a cold outbreak late next week and sticking with normal to below normal through day 15, except euro as pack showed it warms by 3rd week. Interested to see which ones come closes to getting the LR correct.

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A bit of a model war d10-15. Gefs likes the +pna idea and the euro likes the eastern ridge/warmth idea.

Imo- I think a continuation of what we are going through right now is more likely so the gefs may be correct here. Still not a great snow pattern for either of us but not a shutout look either. We'll see how it goes over the next week but I'm kinda expecting the ec to cave a bit.

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Wow, the 00z Euro looks better. There's even a clipper that drops light snow across NC/VA on 1/8.

EDIT: Well, it does get ugly by D10, but it's definitely better than the 12z run.

It had a miller b look to it yesterday evening im on my phone cant look but the gfs had a low comin up ec an another sittin around ohiowith hp to the west im very interested in this time frame. Edit Sorry james i was looking at gfs not euro lol my bad

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A bit of a model war d10-15. Gefs likes the +pna idea and the euro likes the eastern ridge/warmth idea.

Imo- I think a continuation of what we are going through right now is more likely so the gefs may be correct here. Still not a great snow pattern for either of us but not a shutout look either. We'll see how it goes over the next week but I'm kinda expecting the ec to cave a bit.

 

Yeah, I agree, I think we do get the west coast ridging after mid-month.  I actually won't be surprised if we are only warm/zonal for a few days before we start battling the same stuff we are going through now.  I am really holding out hope for -AO by end of Jan though, I may be a glutton for punishment though.   Hopefully the weeklies throw us a bone tonight.

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Yeah, I agree, I think we do get the west coast ridging after mid-month. I actually won't be surprised if we are only warm/zonal for a few days before we start battling the same stuff we are going through now. I am really holding out hope for -AO by end of Jan though, I may be a glutton for punishment though. Hopefully the weeklies throw us a bone tonight.

Don't worry pack, Cohen will be along later next week with a thriving update telling us to wait only a few weeks for the AO...ZZZZZZZZZZZZ

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Pack, i don't want to see a continuation of the 0z euro ens run. Lol. Might be a good day to skip the weeklies.

We only have one stable feature affecting the conus (+ao/nao). The rest of the pattern is fast and in flux all the time. Awful tough for any model to figure out long lead stuff. Or even medium lead for that matter

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Don't worry pack, Cohen will be along later next week with a thriving update telling us to wait only a few weeks for the AO...ZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Metwannabe,

I don't know if you saw my SSW related post in the main thread, but I'm clearly disappointed right now as the current SW appears to be maxing out well below what the progs from just five days ago showed. So, this tells me that those progs are unreliable:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gif

My post in the main thread:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/?p=3223582

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