Shawn Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Like Chris and I were discussing I think SC would have major potential for ice especially CAE. That is a monster wedge and you would probably see temps in the upper 20's if I had to guess with that. CLT would probably be sitting at 27 or so. You guys thinking it's too warm? Quite possibly. I notice the further on it goes, the Upstate gets in on it too. My source is slow tonight. Edit: Now I see the heavier precip into the Midlands. Ouch if it is modeled too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It's a weird motion on the precip. I can't remember an ice storm with precip moving from the coast to the west, ever!? Most of the precip is the shield associated with the weak low...not so much a low bombing out and pumping moisture in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This late next weekend timeframe has really got the attention of me and the guys who I work with on our site and social media pages here in the foothills... The airmass part looks near perfect, I think the GFS in this day 6-7 timeframe is just doing its usual tricks of spitting bits and pieces out there not know ultimately at which time the whole thing will be coming through... I think once we get inside of 5 days, you'll see the GFS make its decision on when exactly this storm would form and slide through the region...the key here is to be patient, this has the makings of our first event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS PARA is interesting. Weak low tracking from FL panhandle across southern SC with a 1040 high in OV and and another one sitting in the GL area. That's a solution that could trend better. That does sound like a very nice potential solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 You guys thinking it's too warm? Quite possibly. I notice the further on it goes, the Upstate gets in on it too. My source is slow tonight. I would say it is def. too warm....IF the high strength and placement is correct. Not too mention what could be a descent snow pack in the NE. That will need to be watched as well. How much snow falls from NY to VA just before this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Rdu gets like 40 hrs of precip. Almost.75 ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The GFS trend has been less moisture since 12z But the 0Z GFS is colder than the 12Z GFS..probably related. the 12Z setup was no good..it was too warm. Meanwhile, Arctic batch #2 is starting to try to make a comeback for midmonth fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS does get/show ZR into CAE and GSP at times from what I can tell. Love that Marion wx...The gfs is likely spitting out energy vs just pushing the whole thing out. Again, too freakin early to get all worked up right now, but you have to admit...the players are on the field...Who's the coach and do they listen to what they need to do to produce?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I would say it is def. too warm....IF the high strength and placement is correct. Not too mention what could be a descent snow pack in the NE. That will need to be watched as well. How much snow falls from NY to VA just before this storm. Good points. Even the "35f" line on these fancy maps is starting to turn it over to ice. I'd assume it will definitely be modeled too warm... although I haven't even taken a look at dewpoints for evap cooling yet. Could end up really nasty around a lot of GA/SC/NC. The GEFS plumes of late have been trying to give a major ice storm in KCAE for the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I would say it is def. too warm....IF the high strength and placement is correct. Not too mention what could be a descent snow pack in the NE. That will need to be watched as well. How much snow falls from NY to VA just before this storm. No doubt the airmass would be colder. everyone would be colder. The CAD areas are super enhanced as well...WHY? there is some weakness off the coast enhancing the NE FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS has the perfect setup for ice accretion. Light but steady precip and a frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 through 192 fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS has the perfect setup for ice accretion. Light but steady precip and a frozen ground. Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS has the perfect setup for ice accretion. Light but steady precip and a frozen ground. BINGO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like RDU's in a wheelhouse of nasty on the GFS precip maps. Of course it's a week plus out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like RDU's in a wheelhouse of nasty on the GFS precip maps. Of course it's a week plus out. Fingers crossed it will somehow end up on the sleet and snow solution and not something worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS PARA is close to a perfect track at 5h for a storm around the 240 mark. Energy drops in to the SW and digs east meanwhile PV is dropping at the perfect time with a lot of associated energy. If the two linked up you would see fireworks. Not likely to happen but shows potential in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I just don't see the precip moving north and east to affect areas like northern alabama and georgia. Am I along on this thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I just don't see the precip moving north and east to affect areas like northern alabama and georgia. Am I along on this thought? I meant to say that I don't see it not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 New GFS has a miller Bish storm late next weekend, low is rather weak because of it. imo, should be more miller A, but low speeds up and high stays more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks a bit Icy for many this far out, but of course it will change many times in the next 7 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Well thankfully the GFS PARA just keeps repeating with arctic blasts in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS PARA is close to a perfect track at 5h for a storm around the 240 mark. Energy drops in to the SW and digs east meanwhile PV is dropping at the perfect time with a lot of associated energy. If the two linked up you would see fireworks. Not likely to happen but shows potential in this pattern. That would be sick!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I will put it this way, the GFS is PERFECT for ZR accum. Slow and steady will ALWAYS win the ZR race. My *GUESS* is that ALL of SC would be in play and NE GA as well with that look at the SFC with the high situation. Models likely too warm. Again, that will all have to watch, too early for all of that. As is, this RUN*** shows a healthy ZR event from GSP-CAE to RDU and pretty close to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Well, off to bed. Looks like an interesting week of model watching to come. Oh, somebody want to give that SE ridge a hand with it's luggage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 New GFS has a miller Bish storm late next weekend, low is rather weak because of it. imo, should be more miller A, but low speeds up and high stays more west. Canadian looks like it's going to be a straight up Miller B...we shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 CMC is like "what CAD?". Straight up Miller B with WAA wrecking everything. Honestly I'll take that over close to an inch of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Well it actually has some ZR with the next storm...just shows that there is def. ice potential over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Might be time for big frosty to call his cousin "vanilla _ _ _ " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Might be time for big frosty to call his cousin "vanilla _ _ _ " Got'em on speed dial! CMC, Got a little Ice not like GFS though. But plenty of time for all kinds of changes! All I can say right now NCSNOW is check your chains out for your vehicle! lol CMC hour 159 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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