franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yep, and actually day 15 it's normal. The ENS snow mean is improved for the period of day 8-14, has most of NC in the 1.5-2" range. Very active. I don't remember the last time the EPS showed below avg 2m temps that deep into the run. it's been deepening the low heights in the Southeast for awhile not. It's also building heights over Hudson bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 it's been deepening the low heights in the Southeast for awhile not. It's also building heights over Hudson bay. Going to jinx us...thats a wintery run on the EPS day 8-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Jonathan said nothing is happening for two weeks, so we are good. That and the EPS sucks in the LR, we toss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think next weekend we really might be talking about winter storms. There is something to that old wives tales about thunderstorms in the winter. The pendulum has to swing back the other way to get everything even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Jonathan said nothing is happening for two weeks, so we are good. I cleaned up my post, Frankie. Things are looking up. Now let's have it verify for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yep, and actually day 15 it's normal. The ENS snow mean is improved for the period of day 8-14, has most of NC in the 1.5-2" range. Very active. I don't remember the last time the EPS showed below avg 2m temps that deep into the run. this is what I was talking about in my earlier post to packfan....not a bad trend in the 8-14...you can see how much it's changed just with one run...heading towards the GEFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 this is what I was talking about in my earlier post to packfan....not a bad trend in the 8-14...you can see how much it's changed just with one run...heading towards the GEFS solution. Where did the SE ridge go on the EPS, it's been there for 6 weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Hot off the presses folks! LOL All new weather video is up. I really think y'all will like it. There is a BUNCH of weather talk, duh...but we talk about the Arctic airmass coming down and how I feel like the models will likely be a little to warm with it, Especially the EURO. Also, how I think the models will ***MORE THAN LIKELY** be kicking out the airmass toward the weekend. PLUS we talk about the *POTENTIAL* weekend fun.. again, potential and TRENDS not a forecast. The players are on the field, but do we kick a field goal, fumble or hit the end zone?? Enjoy and thank y'all for liking and sharing the videos and page. Really means a lot to me. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Awesome vid Chris. You are so much better than the NWS...They just go by the book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Where did the SE ridge go on the EPS, it's been there for 6 weeks now.the same place the - west based NAO went. Into the pockets of the company that owns the rights to the ecwmf. Anybody seen grit lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 the same place the - west based NAO went. Into the pockets of the company that owns the rights to the ecwmf. Anybody seen grit lately? Bored like the rest of us probably. You see Isotherm's and Larry's post on the main thread. The models look bleak with the potential for a -AO, hopefully Isotherm is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Bored like the rest of us probably. You see Isotherm's and Larry's post on the main thread. The models look bleak with the potential for a -AO, hopefully Isotherm is on to something. I will go check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Bored like the rest of us probably. You see Isotherm's and Larry's post on the main thread. The models look bleak with the potential for a -AO, hopefully Isotherm is on to something. Yeah I just read there exchange and like what I am hearing. I think to many people panicked in December about this winter. Just my opinion but we have. Lot of time left and the teleconnections looks better and better in the mid month period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Chris aka delta loved the video. Thank you for your time and effort. Thanks I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Thanks I appreciate it! Great video. I think u are right about the cold air sticking around. But, with a southwest flow it can warm it up quickly and time of day also . I think what will happen is it will be too dry initially then a period of snow to sleet very light though to rain. This system looks like a perfect system to split one to the east of greensboro to charlotte to Greenville Spartenburg and west of the Apps Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Regardless of what effect it may have on our weather, I really hope the MJO can get into phases 8-1 before the end of the month. We need all the indices we can have on our side. The CFS is trying to nudge that way in its 30 day forecast, although at the end of the month it heads back into the COD zone and back into the unfavorable phases. Stark contrast with the EURO projections, which are downright ugly. Also, as noted before by others, the NAO looks to go near neutral and maybe even a smidge negative between mid month and late month. That's the timeframe everyone's looking at now for a possible storm. (I've highlighted in blue) Let's hope we can squeeze something nice out of that period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z GFS starting to catch on to the colder wedge solution. Now has a good portion of NC(into upstate SC) in the ice. I think this will continue to trend a little more colder in time. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150104+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z GFS starting to catch on to the colder wedge solution. Now has a good portion of NC(into upstate SC) in the ice. I think this will continue to trend a little more colder in time. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150104+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 How strong and where is the high placement on 18z?It looked prime on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 How strong and where is the high placement on 18z? It looked prime on 12z It's a beaut, Clark! 1044 over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 How strong and where is the high placement on 18z? It looked prime on 12z It's even more prime 18z....in fact, it's 1038 over KY/WV at 138 (I know, redundant numbers, lol) but this allows for ZR near the FL panhandle and deep south/gulf states...there's almost frozen in Waycross. By 162 there's a 1041 high over PA...by 180 there's a 1043 in the lakes and by 192 Just look at the difference here...one run. This has potential to push frozen into NC and the deep south the way it's trending stronger early starting 138hrs... 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Get much more of a wedge and we could be talking snow or at least sleet along I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Stark contrast with the EURO projections, which are downright ugly. IMG_19069262558030.jpeg Jonathan, I disagree about the Euro projections being ugly since I'd like to see COD, especially in the good phases, based on my analysis of January days since 1975 for ATL. However, I'm not sure the Euro projection is all that credible just yet due to its initialization within the COD when it supposedly is outside the COD in phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Get much more of a wedge and we could be talking snow or at least sleet along I-40.I hate that it's 7 days away, but it looks like the Dec 2002 ice set up! CLT and north started as brief heavy snow before the changeover, and I remember here having alot more sleet mixed in than expected. Still the worst ice storm I've personally experienced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I hate that it's 7 days away, but it looks like the Dec 2002 ice set up! CLT and north started as brief heavy snow before the changeover, and I remember here having alot more sleet mixed in than expected. Still the worst ice storm I've personally experienced! How much precip we talkin, Mack? The HP strength and placement look good on the maps posted, but I don't get a feel for the precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 How much precip we talkin, Mack? The HP strength and placement look good on the maps posted, but I don't get a feel for the precip amounts.Haven't looked at 18z, but 12z looked pretty juicy for Sun /Mon. Don't know amounts , new at this map reading/ model stuff , but I'm trying to learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Haven't looked at 18z, but 12z looked pretty juicy for Sun /Mon. Don't know amounts , new at this map reading/ model stuff , but I'm trying to learn! It was less juicy from what I can tell...hoping the ensembles will be better for your region and mine but it's a long way out there in model land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thanks guys. I've been out this evening and haven't been able to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Regardless of what effect it may have on our weather, I really hope the MJO can get into phases 8-1 before the end of the month. We need all the indices we can have on our side. The CFS is trying to nudge that way in its 30 day forecast, although at the end of the month it heads back into the COD zone and back into the unfavorable phases. IMG_19056861801194.jpeg Stark contrast with the EURO projections, which are downright ugly. IMG_19069262558030.jpeg Also, as noted before by others, the NAO looks to go near neutral and maybe even a smidge negative between mid month and late month. That's the timeframe everyone's looking at now for a possible storm. (I've highlighted in blue) Let's hope we can squeeze something nice out of that period! 2015-01-04 17.45.03.png did u notice the date for the euro mjo ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thanks guys. I've been out this evening and haven't been able to look.Outback? Carrabas ? I think this is a legit chance. Don't know how GFS is in 7 day range, but amounts aren't that important this far out, of course. But a possible storm and some cold, the possibility is intriguing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Outback? Carrabas ? I think this is a legit chance. Don't know how GFS is in 7 day range, but amounts aren't that important this far out, of course. But a possible storm and some cold, the possibility is intriguing ! Nope, just Wal Mart for 2 hours tonight. I just saw the 18z. I like the nice -NAO at the end of the run. Would be nice to see it hold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I hate that it's 7 days away, but it looks like the Dec 2002 ice set up! CLT and north started as brief heavy snow before the changeover, and I remember here having alot more sleet mixed in than expected. Still the worst ice storm I've personally experienced! I certainly don't want to see that again. Hope it will be snow and sleet only. Ice storms can stay away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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