GaWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm disappointed to see that the 2nd Arctic plunge for mid month hasn't been on the last four GFS runs after being on several in a row. That is now being shunted into the NE US and E Canada instead of plunging down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think we really need to monitor next weekend. It's got potential. As that bulk of moisture leaves the Gulf and heads our way a CAD signal is present and around 180 there are 2m temps showing up below freezing for a brief time for parts of NC. It looks WAA takes over but it's something to keep an eye on for ice I think. Would love for the smarter people to chime in. It will depend heavily on the track of the surface low and the 850 low as to what type of precip we get, and if the wedge will get scoured out as quickly as shown. if there is no GL low to screw it up, a southern track would be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Couldn't a 1038 over NY get it done? Is the air just not cold enough? I thought the basic set up looked good There's a high over WS and one in NY, 1040, 1038 1018 lp off CHS Monday , N of 40 in NC looks extremely icy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Couldn't a 1038 over NY get it done? Is the air just not cold enough? I thought the basic set up looked good There's a high over WS and one in NY, 1040, 1038 Yes, especially because of the initial cold that will be in place. If there is a wedge it will hold onto the cold more than the models currently show. There is a some signs of the wedge on the GFS but I believe it is not strong enough. I think this definitely has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The GFS actually was close to blowing up, it dampens the southern SW, if not could have been big. A big storm is not what our area wants but could be fun for TN to the MA/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It is much wetter due to the Miller A on the 12Z GFS but the Arctic high to the north us quite a bit weaker and it is a good bit warmer (too warm for many). I'm sure this is all related (warmer but wetter). Still time to change later, of course. Larry, your right, But I think that will change. I actually look at that setup and go...hmmmm...Things are highly interesting to me. I think the longer range we will see that trend better with that. Jon, thanks for the update with the EURO LR....ITs trying to get better, and the trof underneath with moisture under-cutting big highs=trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm disappointed to see that the 2nd Arctic plunge for mid month hasn't been on the last four GFS runs after being on several in a row. That is now being shunted into the NE US and E Canada instead of plunging down. True but remember the coming blast was at one point centered over New England as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Couldn't a 1038 over NY get it done? Is the air just not cold enough? I thought the basic set up looked good There's a high over WS and one in NY, 1040, 1038 1018 lp off CHS Monday , N of 40 in NC looks extremely icy ! I could be wrong, but I think the orientation of the HP is not optimal. We need the banana HP to funnel the low level cold dry air down. Snow pack suck too Plenty of time for changes hopefully for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 True but remember the coming blast was at one point centered over New England as well.... 12z para shows it. But it also shows a warmer look for the day 6/7 event. Knowing our luck the para will be right about the event and the old GFS right about the secondary cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Chris just wanted to thank you your an outstanding met we need more of them i truly appreciate all that you do for the se crew!!!! God bless you my freind! Thank you for the very kind words..I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The DOC is up to the mic and it has a 1059-1060mb high moving through the DAkotas by 12z wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Need to see what the doc has to say for the wed- Sun time period coming up. It's been getting jerked around like all other models, but more so lately here in the LR. HOWEVER IT'S STILL THE KING DAY 3-7, so I weigh it heavily along side/for/ or aginst the other models in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Need to see what the doc has to say for the wed- Sun time period coming up. It's been getting jerked around like all other models, but more so lately here in the LR. HOWEVER IT'S STILL THE KING DAY 3-7, so I weigh it heavily along side/for/ or aginst the other models in this time frame.That 1060 high in the plains is a good start! That's not something you see everyday here in the states. Been pretty consistant on that number though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think we will see a major snow/ice most likely Ice storm within the next 10 days for many in the SE!!! Just a snowmans gut feeling!!! Like Chris been saying will be hard to get out of this pattern without at least an Ice event......... Lots of highs to the north and we should start seeing some kind of undercutting pattern, which is good for SE winter lovers. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think we will see a major snow/ice most likely Ice storm within the next 10 days for many in the SE!!! Just a snowmans gut feeling!!! Like Chris been saying will be hard to get out of this pattern without at least an Ice event......... Lots of highs to the north and we should start seeing some kind of undercutting pattern, which is good for SE winter lovers. JMO I agree snowman. We are ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Very weird feeling today with the warm temps and storms around. And then it is going to get really cold. I would not be surprised if we get a winter storm soon. We often go from one extreme to another here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EURO is a nice rainstorm for just about everyone. First high pushes out by Sunday and there moisture is still a bit west of us. THE EURO is slower with that other high that comes down like the GFS over the OHV. euro doesn't have that high. or it does but its back in Montana...This WONT get it done on this run.. Atleast we have a few players on the field for next weekend. upper 30's to 50's when QPF is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 EURO is a nice rainstorm for just about everyone. First high pushes out by Sunday and there moisture is still a bit west of us. THE EURO is slower with that other high that comes down like the GFS over the OHV. euro doesn't have that high. or it does but its back in Montana...This WONT get it done on this run.. Atleast we have a few players on the field for next weekend. upper 30's to 50's when QPF is around. Lol, ain't that just par for the course! I don't like to see it, but I'm not buying the euro right now. it's been less than stellar lately. But with our luck it will probably be right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Lol, ain't that just par for the course! I don't like to see it, but I'm not buying the euro right now. it's been less than stellar lately. But with our luck it will probably be right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS vs EURO on the potential ice/mix for next Sunday night into Monday. Only a matter of time before the GFS caves. Canadian is just "meh" with a mix in the mountains and rain everywhere else. GFS is pretty textbook, with a banana high to the north from Wisconsin to NY and the slp tracking off the lower NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think we will see a major snow/ice most likely Ice storm within the next 10 days for many in the SE!!! Just a snowmans gut feeling!!! Like Chris been saying will be hard to get out of this pattern without at least an Ice event......... Lots of highs to the north and we should start seeing some kind of undercutting pattern, which is good for SE winter lovers. JMO Since you created this thread, some of us can take that to the bank. We know how the wedge scenarios are always modeled too weak and short. Since it's so far out and we have a signal of something happening, it's a good sign imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Excellent. Everything is going perfectly according to plan. Not sure why anyone would think it would change. I mean yeah, we're getting cold for two days. Woohoo! Our second arctic blast for the mid month period is now off the table on all models. The MJO isn't going anywhere, the AO/NAO is going "close" to neutral at best in the foreseeable future. GFS vs EURO on the potential ice/mix for next Sunday night into Monday. Only a matter of time before the GFS caves. Canadian is just "meh" with a mix in the mountains and rain everywhere else. GFS is pretty textbook, with a banana high to the north from Wisconsin to NY and the slp tracking off the lower NC coast. We all know that fairy tale isn't happening. Even our "arctic attack" is looking weaker. May not have to wrap the pipes after all. (Not that I'm complaining about that anyway.) Nothing to see here, move it along! So, I'm guessing from your post, you are saying that the good things today's model runs are showing will not verify and the bad things that today's model runs are showing will verify. Is that based on the fact that it has not been as cold and snowy the last 4 weeks as you would have liked? Not trying to be overly critical. Just trying to get a better handle on how so many are so slow to be excited about progress in the pattern and so quick to jump of everything that is not cold and snowy and take it as gospel. I guess we all have are different levels of optimism/pessimism and seeing the glass half empty vs half full. I tend to think we are headed in the right direction. Putting too much stock in what 12Z or 0Z or any other run is showing will often lead to either false hope or much weeping and gnashing of teeth. Look at all the puzzle pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 So, I'm guessing from your post, you are saying that the good things today's model runs are showing will not verify and the bad things that today's model runs are showing will verify. Is that based on the fact that it has not been as cold and snowy the last 4 weeks as you would have liked? Not trying to be overly critical. Just trying to get a better handle on how so many are so slow to be excited about progress in the pattern and so quick to jump of everything that is not cold and snowy and take it as gospel. I guess we all have are different levels of optimism/pessimism and seeing the glass half empty vs half full. I tend to think we are headed in the right direction. Putting too much stock in what 12Z or 0Z or any other run is showing will often lead to either false hope or much weeping and gnashing of teeth. Look at all the puzzle pieces. Good post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The EPS is actually colder then the Op day 7-8, nice signal for an event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Did snowstorm or Marietta sign up under a new name?? Idk, I'm like excited about the cold shot and the pattern we are moving towards has a lot more potential than the garbage we have had. I passed my pessimism on to another poster and it left me. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Hot off the presses folks! LOL All new weather video is up. I really think y'all will like it. There is a BUNCH of weather talk, duh...but we talk about the Arctic airmass coming down and how I feel like the models will likely be a little to warm with it, Especially the EURO. Also, how I think the models will ***MORE THAN LIKELY** be kicking out the airmass toward the weekend. PLUS we talk about the *POTENTIAL* weekend fun.. again, potential and TRENDS not a forecast. The players are on the field, but do we kick a field goal, fumble or hit the end zone?? Enjoy and thank y'all for liking and sharing the videos and page. Really means a lot to me. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EPS had some interesting changes. The 0z run has below avg 2m temps through day 8, not counting today/tomorrow. The 12z has below normal 2m temps through day 14, for the S/SE. After that it gets warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 EPS had some interesting changes. The 0z run has below avg 2m temps through day 8, not counting today/tomorrow. The 12z has below normal 2m temps through day 14, for the S/SE. After that it gets warmer.lol the eps only go out to day 15. Are you saYing after 14 days of below normal we have 1 above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Chris aka delta loved the video. Thank you for your time and effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 lol the eps only go out to day 15. Are you saYing after 14 days of below normal we have 1 above?Yep, and actually day 15 it's normal. The ENS snow mean is improved for the period of day 8-14, has most of NC in the 1.5-2" range. Very active. I don't remember the last time the EPS showed below avg 2m temps that deep into the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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