Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This is an excellent post! I could not agree more. I have been meaning to make a similar post with some facts from past winters associated, but have had tons of Holiday activities with family and friends and have taken the time to only read the doom and gloom many have been spouting. Anyone that believed the wall to wall cold that was being hyped here among other places was destined for disappointment. If you can't get at least a little excited about the coming cold shot and potential pattern beyond that, then maybe you should consider gardening as a hobby. There is certainly more opportunities for that in the SE. The whole "doom and gloom many have been spouting" argument is a straw man, and it keeps coming up. Nobody has seriously canceled winter, well, except maybe Max. Discussing that December sucked isn't doom and gloom. Discussing that the models have shown good patterns in the LR that have yet to verify isn't doom and gloom. Discussing things that can mess up a pattern or a potential snowstorm isn't doom and gloom. I mean, it's fun and all to see pretty red colors over Greenland and big west coast ridges 15 days away and purple colors in the SE and 2 day long snowstorms, but how many times do you see that modeled compared to how many times it turns out that way? It's hard to get snow in the SE. It's not just bad luck every time. It's hard to get snow. So some degree of skepticism is justified and even wise. To me, that's not do and gloom -- it's realism. I don't really see all these doom and gloom people that are writing off winter that you guys are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 LR Euro continues to be a dumpster fire. Good news is, it'll probably change. We will probably get attacked arctically twice. There is currently no clear winter storm threat showing up, although the pattern should present a few windows for it. At least this a step in the right direction, kinda like that Pathfinder game on the old Price Is Right. We've stepped on the second correct number. Only 3 more to go! If I recall, numerous LR Euro forecasts valid for mid to late next week were showing above normal to even blow torch conditions. Those will bust badly. Putting stock in any model beyond a few days right now is dangerous. The LR Euro has behaved very badly. Weighing too much on them does little more than fuel emotions. Best option is to try to put all of the puzzle pieces together to try to see trends. It is apparent to me and many others that the sum of all of the pieces being discussed are starting to point in the right direction. Cold next week is becoming obvious. The pattern beyond that is beginning to look more promising. Not based on one model run, but the whole picture. Let's all stop for a minute and look where we were last Saturday. Now look where we are now. Are we moving in the right direction? I think the answer is obvious. If you are angry until you have 12" of snow IYBY, I guess I can't help that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I like how the euro ensembles deepen the Aleutian low, build heights over Canada, and deepen the trough over the se. They have been doing this for about 6 runs now. Hopefully a true Nino pattern can lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It must be wrong, it's not showing a SE ridge! :-) LOL Ind euro members are starting to show more southern frozen solutions. Especially NC compared to the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Ind euro members are starting to show more southern frozen solutions. Especially NC compared to the last few runs. Yeah, wasn't going to bring that up, seems to be a lot of EPS haters in our region. LOL. I don't really get excited about ice threats, but day 8-11..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah, wasn't going to bring that up, seems to be a lot of EPS haters in our region. LOL. I don't really get excited about ice threats, but day 8-11..... Because the snow algorithm uses 3rd grade math, the verbatim output is unreliable at best. I use it as a clue to get an idea of storm tracks and temps being marginal at worst. The mslp tracks are all over the place. Little clarity but a half decent run overall. Looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If I recall, numerous LR Euro forecasts valid for mid to late next week were showing above normal to even blow torch conditions. Those will bust badly. Putting stock in any model beyond a few days right now is dangerous. The LR Euro has behaved very badly. Weighing too much on them does little more than fuel emotions. Best option is to try to put all of the puzzle pieces together to try to see trends. It is apparent to me and many others that the sum of all of the pieces being discussed are starting to point in the right direction. Cold next week is becoming obvious. The pattern beyond that is beginning to look more promising. Not based on one model run, but the whole picture. Let's all stop for a minute and look where we were last Saturday. Now look where we are now. Are we moving in the right direction? I think the answer is obvious. If you are angry until you have 12" of snow IYBY, I guess I can't help that right now. Good post. We definitely appear to be headed to a better place. It'll be fun when we have some real threats to track. A little disappointment in how things have gone thus far shouldn't be unexpected, given how things looked in November. But there is reason to be somewhat more optimistic (and realistic), going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm only out to hour 177 on the 18z GFS but this would definitely be potential: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=177ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150103+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm only out to hour 177 on the 18z GFS but this would definitely be potential: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=177ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150103+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model That just looks like a frontal passage between arctic shots?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 That just looks like a frontal passage between arctic shots?? The air is still cold from the initial shot. Look at hour 168: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150103+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just past hour 177 it looks like it strings out the moisture and doesn't allow anything to the east. Doesn't look right to me. I would still say this is a time period we need to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Quote from JB when he saw the EPS 11-15 day pattern.... "That is a positive PNA with the positive in the area that would support storminess in the east and south." Since the EPS sucks in the LR I guess we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ATL's warmest MJO in Jan (back to 1975) has been phase 5 outside of the circle while phase 8 somewhat within or barely outside the circle (amplitude of 0.50 to 1.25) has been the coldest:Temp. anomalies after normalization:Phase 5 (amplitude >1):MB 13%, B 4% N 13%, A 19%, MA 51%Phase 8 (amplitude 1.25 to 0.50):MB 48%, B 26% N 16%, A 0%, MA 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Oh boy! Don't look now, but I Think*** the GFS** is going to be just as good as the 12z run, maybe even more moisture by early in the weekend. The moisture trying do die out, but its something. VERY LIGHT tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Its very light at best, but it might be something to watch for. My guess is it will stay dry, but it wouldn't take much with a frozen ground and a nice fresh airmass inbound from the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Good lord what a setup for us in the southern plains and into the SE. The GFS is soooooooo close for something BIG. Kick that evergy SE out of the rockies and we are in super biz. The nice 1040mb high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 HR180, a 1045mb high over eastern IA/western IL and we have a weak area of low pressure over the WGOM, EVERYONE pretty much below freezing at 2m over the central and northern portions of the states. IF we get that sucker moving EAST from the WGOM, it will be at least an ICY MESS!! ZR MESS over TX and LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 HR180, a 1045mb high over eastern IA/western IL and we have a weak area of low pressure over the WGOM, EVERYONE pretty much below freezing at 2m over the central and northern portions of the states. IF we get that sucker moving EAST from the WGOM, it will be at least an ICY MESS!! ZR MESS over TX and LA Yep, that's the best look at 500mb I have seen this season. This could be the ticket folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yep, that's the best look at 500mb I have seen this season. This could be the ticket folks. I Agree! Best setup all winter so far, by far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z para puts out an inch or 2 of snow north AL, north GA saturday. Could Marietta get its seasonal avg by this time next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And for the record, I think this is a ICE shot only, not a snow setup, IMHO. Maybe near I-40, but I would think it would mostly be a nice low level cold 2m temp Arctic airmass kind of thing. What a beautiful shot at a winter weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GGEM is big ice event next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Some Morning thoughts on the Rain moving through now, and looking ahead to next week and beyond. Will have full video update later after the 12z GFS, CMC and EURO come out. Good Morning everyone, now its nap time as I was up at times overnight with the Heavy Rain...UGH! LOL https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Incoming weenie run on GFS day 7, winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Notice at 150 the 12z GFS has the 850 0 deg sagging back into the northern tier of North Carolina as light precip is starting to show up on radar in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Very small precip over NGA at 144, not very exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Anybody have a report on the euro ensembles from overnight? Thanks! Yeah, Euro is coming around in the LR. Looping through some of the LR patterns I'm pretty optimistic after 240...People say to not look at the models this far out and whatever but I try to look for trends, no matter how far out it is...if they are present, you can't dismiss them. We've been talking about 1/15+ for a while now and if you glance at teleconnections you can see the models are sniffing out a super positive +PNA, and the AO/NAO is headed at least neutral at this time. With that said, you see solutions like this on the GFS OP...block over the top and deep cold? Contrast that with the GFS ensemble...check out the negative anomaly off the coast of NC and the general look here with the +PNA... Then you look at the Euro. I've said the Euro EPS seems to be terrible lately in the LR...but it's still trying to put a little trough over the SE...This map may trend to an awesome pattern...I see on the Euro control s/w after s/w coming through the SE, tapping the gulf and riding off the coast. In fact, the last frame is a low over north florida with a pretty deep high over NY. To me, anyone looking the LR for a stormy + decent cold pattern should be excited. Given it's 288hrs out we need to keep an eye on it, once inside 240 we'll start to get an idea on most of the models what exactly 1/15+ holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It is much wetter due to the Miller A on the 12Z GFS but the Arctic high to the north us quite a bit weaker and it is a good bit warmer (too warm for many). I'm sure this is all related (warmer but wetter). Still time to change later, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 168 looks like alot of precip incoming, big high over lakes and one in NE. I imagine a good wedge could set up, but doesn't look cold enough at this time!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think we really need to monitor next weekend. It's got potential. As that bulk of moisture leaves the Gulf and heads our way a CAD signal is present and around 180 there are 2m temps showing up below freezing for a brief time for parts of NC. It looks WAA takes over but it's something to keep an eye on for ice I think. Would love for the smarter people to chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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