Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

[GaWx]

I wonder if it makes any difference where it enters the COD? Your data shows that phase 8 COD is the best. But what I'm wondering is if it had previously entered that area from phase 8 or if it had entered that area from a warmer phase? It may not matter. I was just curious if you saw anything there.

 

 

1) Thanks, Wow.

 

2) CR,

 For the most part, it didn't enter COD 8 from non-COD 8:

 

 1. 1977: was in COD phase 5 before entering phase 6 COD. It did go outside COD for four days into phases 6-7 before reentering the COD in the 7-8 area. Regardless, it was very cold for the week immediately after leaving COD phase 5.

2. 1988: was outside COD in phases 7-8 during the 12 days immediately preceding entry into the COD phase 8.

3. 1994: was in COD phase 5 before entering phase 6-7-8-1-2-3 COD.

4. 1996: was barely outside COD in phase 8 for two days right before entering the COD phase 8-1-2.

5. 2000: was in COD phase 5 before entering phase 6-7-8-1-2-3 COD.

6. 2003: was barely outside the COD for five days in phase 5 and then 6 before entering the COD in phase 7 and then 8.

7. 2014: came from a 12 day period within the COD mainly in 5 before coming into the COD 6-7-8-1-2-3

 

 

 So, of the 7, only 1988 came from a nontrivial existence in non-COD 8. 1996 did but only on a technicality. The other 5 of 7 were in COD 5 just prior to entering COD 6-7.

 

 94, 00, and 14 were very similar to my hypothetical optimal path by the way.

[JoshM]

Are you ready for a wild ride on the weather coaster??  LOL  A lot of changes coming to the forecast and pattern.  New video is up.  Let me know what y'all think.  

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

 

Great video as always... I'm with you on the CAD storms, pattern screams ice storm.

[Cold Rain]

1) Thanks, Wow.

2) CR,

For the most part, it didn't enter COD 8 from non-COD 8:

1. 1977: was in COD phase 5 before entering phase 6 COD. It did go outside COD for four days into phases 6-7 before reentering the COD in the 7-8 area. Regardless, it was very cold for the week immediately after leaving COD phase 5.

2. 1988: was outside COD in phases 7-8 during the 12 days immediately preceding entry into the COD phase 8.

3. 1994: was in COD phase 5 before entering phase 6-7-8-1-2-3 COD.

4. 1996: was barely outside COD in phase 8 for two days right before entering the COD phase 8-1-2.

5. 2000: was in COD phase 5 before entering phase 6-7-8-1-2-3 COD.

6. 2003: was barely outside the COD for five days in phase 5 and then 6 before entering the COD in phase 7 and then 8.

7. 2014: came from a 12 day period within the COD mainly in 5 before coming into the COD 6-7-8-1-2-3

So, of the 7, only 1988 came from a nontrivial existence in non-COD 8. 1996 did but only on a technicality. The other 5 of 7 were in COD 5 just prior to entering COD 6-7.

94, 00, and 14 were very similar to my hypothetical optimal path by the way.

Thanks Larry! Always love reading your data and analyses.

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

It sounds like COD or close proximity to COD it what we want for 6,7,8 ,1,and 2. Just look at all that precipitation along with the Arctic front that is snow. Then look at all of the precipitation that will join the other later on further to the North. I just hope that is us later on. Jealous!    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

[BullCityWx]

This run of the GFS has some ice in the stale cold aftermath

[deltadog03]

Great video as always... I'm with you on the CAD storms, pattern screams ice storm.

Thanks Josh!  I really think its only a matter of time!

[deltadog03]

This run of the GFS has some ice in the stale cold aftermath

I am still HIGHLY interested in next weekend.  I really think that might** produce something for the CAD areas.

[LithiaWx]

I am still HIGHLY interested in next weekend.  I really think that might** produce something for the CAD areas.

Wouldn't it be an in-situ CAD due to no reinforcing NE winds? Also do you have any concerns with the amount of WAA modeled?

[mackerel_sky]

Wouldn't it be an in-situ CAD due to no reinforcing NE winds? Also do you have any concerns with the amount of WAA modeled?

Not too many concerns 8 or so days out. The models can't handle the anomalous cold and dry of this type of cold, so dp's , I would imagine , could end up being alot lower than what is showing at this point and alot of times, wedges are slower to erode than what is shown, and in situ wedge , could get the job done also

[deltadog03]

Wouldn't it be an in-situ CAD due to no reinforcing NE winds? Also do you have any concerns with the amount of WAA modeled?

 

Too early for those details, but Yea, for sure that could be an issue.

[deltadog03]

EURO does have some energy over the southern plains by next sat am, but just nada on qpf.  The meat grinder might kill that.  Nice 1040mb+ high sliding across the OHV

[deltadog03]

that is the energy that has to make it through, or there obviously won't be jack...We are all cold enough for ICE.  Haven't looked at 850, would image it would be an icy setup.  The high is strengthening and in PRIME CAD position.  1043-1044mb

[deltadog03]

ya, still looks meh, and high is sliding off.  Still cold at 2m  Will have to see.  This is going to take awhile *few days* to really dislodge this low level cold IMHO  Especially with highs keep sliding across.

[GaWx]

 ^Chris,

 ^{My maps show a teeny tiny bit of wintry precip. ( up to 0.1" QPF) for some of the CAD areas fwiw on 1/11 AM.}

[deltadog03]

 ^Chris,

 ^{My maps show a teeny tiny bit of wintry precip, for some of the CAD areas fwiw on 1/11 AM.}

I saw that as well.  Looked like it was under .10" maybe? Would def. by ICE.  Heck, 0c line is down to MCN still at that point, or close by   ***IF*** I remember correctly.

[Cold Rain]

Outside the cold temps next week, the 0z GFS is unimpressive -- not even a legit fantasy threat. The 6z would imply a couple of winter storm threats beyond 192. The CMC is worthless, if you're looking for snow, and the Euro looks like monkey butt after the arctic blast. I can't get too worked up over the outside chance if .05" of ice either.

This winter so far is heading for a top five all time most boring, useless, non-charismatic, uninspiring piece of monkey crap Cold Rain has ever seen.

I guess we shouldn't worry too much about it yet, though. Our climo period starts in April...so I guess we just need to continue to be patient.

[Cold Rain]

It looks like the AO gets up to about 4, but then it dives negative late in the cycle. The NAO gets up to about 2 before falling to neutral late. The PNA heads toward 1 in the LR. I guess if all of that plays out, that's good. I'm still sticking with my call that things will start looking better after 1/15. Oh, and the GFS takes the MJO to 7, but the Euro still looks like garbage.

[burgertime]

It looks like the AO gets up to about 4, but then it dives negative late in the cycle. The NAO gets up to about 2 before falling to neutral late. The PNA heads toward 1 in the LR. I guess if all of that plays out, that's good. I'm still sticking with my call that things will start looking better after 1/15. Oh, and the GFS takes the MJO to 7, but the Euro still looks like garbage.

 

I didn't think the 00z looked too bad. At least it has some arctic air reaching us in the LR. Actually every model had it last night in the LR....which is a good sign considering where we've been. Sucks it looks like we might have to wait until Jan. 15th.....which by that time we might have to wait until the 28th lol.....but again I thought the LR was actually a breath of fresh air compared to the last couple of cycles. 

[Cold Rain]

I didn't think the 00z looked too bad. At least it has some arctic air reaching us in the LR. Actually every model had it last night in the LR....which is a good sign considering where we've been. Sucks it looks like we might have to wait until Jan. 15th.....which by that time we might have to wait until the 28th lol.....but again I thought the LR was actually a breath of fresh air compared to the last couple of cycles.

Oh I agree, the model didn't look like a disaster. In fact, I was glad to see the LR look ok. Just ready for a legitate threat to track. That's part of the fun of winter. You certainly won't catch all of the storms you chase, but it's fun to actually have something to chase. Right now, nothing.

[mrgolf]

Cold rain, I don't see how with not a neg ao or nao we see any sustained cold or winter storm threat that looks likely. The thing I'm confused about is why aren't the ao and nao going neg? What's main culprit and how likely is it to change

[GaWx]

Cold rain, I don't see how with not a neg ao or nao we see any sustained cold or winter storm threat that looks likely. The thing I'm confused about is why aren't the ao and nao going neg? What's main culprit and how likely is it to change

IMO, the negativity isn't warranted. I think that in addition to next week's cold shot as well as the potential GFS based follow up cold shot near mid month, it is looking potentially promising for the bulk of the 2nd half of Jan. if the MJO were to go where it appears it may per the last Euro projection I saw (as of 1/1). The last half of Jan is the peak for ATL for overall wintry precip (major ZR's peak last 10 days of Jan) while the SN/IP peak extends also into the 1st half of Feb.

If we get the kind of MJO path that the 1/1 Euro suggests, we may be golden in the 2nd half of Jan for extensive cold then regardless of the NAO/AO as last night's MJO based posts showed.

Has anyone seen a Euro MJO fcast later than the one from 1/1?

[mrgolf]

IMO, the negativity isn't warranted. I think that in addition to next week's cold shot as well as the potential GFS based follow up cold shot near mid month, the second half of Jan is looking potentially promising for the bulk of the 2nd half of Jan. if the MJO were to go where it appears it may per the last Euro projection I saw (as of 1/1). The last half of Jan is the peak for ATL for overall wintry precip (major ZR's peak last 10 days of Jan) while the SN/IP peak extends also into the 1st half of Feb.

If we get the kind of MJO path that the 1/1 Euro suggests, we may be golden in the 2nd half of Jan for extensive cold then regardless of the NAO/AO as last night's MJO based posts showed.

Has anyone seen a Euro MJO fcast later than the one from 1/1?

Larry, don't they have them at CPC site?

[GaWx]

Larry, don't they have them at CPC site?

The last update I saw was from 1/1.

By the way, I'm still not abandoning 1939-40. Despite the not cold first week or so of Jan and mainly mild last week of Dec and the lack of -AO/NAO, the rest of Dec and earlier matched it very well. Looking at the GFS as well as considering the various MJO fcasts of 1/1, the rest of Jan and into Feb could very well be somewhat similar to 1940. The last half of Jan had extreme cold as well as a quite big and extensive snowstorm in the SE.

Note the huge failure the Euro weeklies of 12/25 and 12/22 are about to have for next week.

[FallsLake]

IMO, the negativity isn't warranted. I think that in addition to next week's cold shot as well as the potential GFS based follow up cold shot near mid month, the second half of Jan is looking potentially promising for the bulk of the 2nd half of Jan. if the MJO were to go where it appears it may per the last Euro projection I saw (as of 1/1). The last half of Jan is the peak for ATL for overall wintry precip (major ZR's peak last 10 days of Jan) while the SN/IP peak extends also into the 1st half of Feb.

If we get the kind of MJO path that the 1/1 Euro suggests, we may be golden in the 2nd half of Jan for extensive cold then regardless of the NAO/AO as last night's MJO based posts showed.

Has anyone seen a Euro MJO fcast later than the one from 1/1?

Plus we saw how last year had an overall bad look to the indices but was able to produce. We did have the EPO on our side just like it looks to be on our side this year. Now it is very good to also have the AO, NAO, and PNA on your side. Good news on that front:

PNA - looks to go positive and stay that way in the LR

AO - Now looks to definitely go negative in the LR

NAO - Looks to go to neutral in the LR; which if extrapolated would continue negative.

 

So in short, it's looking really promising for the mid to late part of January.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[mackerel_sky]

Outside the cold temps next week, the 0z GFS is unimpressive -- not even a legit fantasy threat. The 6z would imply a couple of winter storm threats beyond 192. The CMC is worthless, if you're looking for snow, and the Euro looks like monkey butt after the arctic blast. I can't get too worked up over the outside chance if .05" of ice either.

This winter so far is heading for a top five all time most boring, useless, non-charismatic, uninspiring piece of monkey crap Cold Rain has ever seen.

I guess we shouldn't worry too much about it yet, though. Our climo period starts in April...so I guess we just need to continue to be patient.

I don't understand the negativity!? I mean , who can't get excited about pipe- busting cold and then warming up just enough to get that .05 of precip to be a cold rain! I think snow jam 14, looked pretty anemic until about 2-3 days out, then inched up as we got closer and went from about .05 to about .25 at go time?? # faiths n flurry

[GaWx]

I don't understand the negativity!? I mean , who can't get excited about pipe- busting cold and then warming up just enough to get that .05 of precip to be a cold rain! I think snow jam 14, looked pretty anemic until about 2-3 days out, then inched up as we got closer and went from about .05 to about .25 at go time?? # faiths n flurry

Mack,

In addition to what I said, you've already had a bonus SN in Nov. Why are you so negative? And now you're complaining about a dry cold shot, which is common with Arctic plunges. You're becoming a negative Nelly IMO. Disappointing.

[HKY_WX]

The extended 00z euro ens (out past mid jan) looks pretty seasonal apart from the sharp cold snap next week. No large warm up or SE ridge. However, the pattern lacks any pieces needed for a significant snowstorm. The atlantic is just not cooperating this year so far. Without any blocking, there's decreased chances for phasing opportunities. Most systems will come into the east and simply follow the seasonal path through the ohio valley or great lakes and sprint offshore. There's nothing to back the pattern up and spark a phased cutoff. We'll see if that changes later on into winter. That said, I still like the idea of a possible icestorm at some point, given the mutliple CAD setups we've had this winter/fall. The timing will likely be good enough at some point to spark a ZR event. 

[mackerel_sky]

Mack,

In addition to what I said, you've already had a bonus SN in Nov. Why are you so negative? And now you're complaining about a dry cold shot? You're becoming a negative Nelly IMO. Disappointing.

My post was only slightly negative. CR post seemed like he typed it in mid air, between the ledge and floor of the cliff! I am looking forward to a possible shot at single digits, really! That doesn't happen alot around here anymore, and back to back winters with single digit lowes would be cool!

[packbacker]

These have been posted recently, looks worse from a few days ago...

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

[GaWx]

The extended 00z euro ens (out past mid jan) looks pretty seasonal apart from the sharp cold snap next week. No large warm up or SE ridge. However, the pattern lacks any pieces needed for a significant snowstorm. The atlantic is just not cooperating this year so far. Without any blocking, there's decreased chances for phasing opportunities. Most systems will come into the east and simply follow the seasonal path through the ohio valley or great lakes and sprint offshore. There's nothing to back the pattern up and spark a phased cutoff. We'll see if that changes later on into winter. That said, I still like the idea of a possible icestorm at some point, given the mutliple CAD setups we've had this winter/fall. The timing will likely be good enough at some point to spark a ZR event.

HKY,

1) Based on the recent major failures of the Euro ens 11-15 as well as Euro weeklies for 1/5-11 (see my post from a few days ago), I'd take any 11-15 EPS progs with a huge grain right now.

2) Keeping that in mind and considering other factors I noted earlier, the lack of blocking to this point is far from being anything close to a signal that the last half of Jan can't be quite memorable.

3) Phasing is not at all needed for a big and widespread SE winter storm as per my posts showing that most of the big SE SN/ IP were produced by WEAK Miller A's while in the Gulf. Strong storms in the GOM tend to not track as far south and bring up too much warm air for most of the SE.

Related: most of the big and widespread SE SN/IP were not produced by cutoffs. 3/1/09 was more of the exception rather than the rule. We IMO need to root for a weak Miller A that comes across while or just after a very cold and large high moves across to our NW and N.

edited