max100 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS is very cold for the SE, as we all know, not as cold as the EURO, about 8-10 degrees warmer. LOL Either way, we will meet somewhere in the middle and MANY of us won't get above FREEZING next THUR. Tell KFFC that...Plus it always has to back off, I want extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Tell KFFC that...Plus it always has to back off, I want extreme. You got extreme last year and swore up and down it wouldn't be extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Tell KFFC that...Plus it always has to back off, I want extreme.Forecasters just basically go with/ lean torwards climo, in the 5-10 day forecasts , even if models are showing crazy cold, and then trend temps down when it gets to 2-3 days out, happens every time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Forecasters just basically go with/ lean torwards climo, in the 5-10 day forecasts , even if models are showing crazy cold, and then trend temps down when it gets to 2-3 days out, happens every time! Yep, you are right....Thanks.. Right now we are 20/40 for next Thursday, probably take 10 degrees lower than that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yep, you are right....Thanks.. Right now we are 20/40 for next Thursday, probably take 10 degrees lower than that at least. Maybe, maybe not. 40/20 might end up being pretty accurate. That would still be well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Maybe, maybe not. 40/20 might end up being pretty accurate. That would still be well below normal. 40/20 is nothing at all unusual for Atlanta.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Maybe, maybe not. 40/20 might end up being pretty accurate. That would still be well below normal. As I mentioned yesterday, the coldest mean temp. for any day at KATL in JAN since 1975 while within phase 5 outside the COD is 25. So, something like a high near, say, 35 and low near 15 would, itself, be quite noteworthy, especially if the MJO is then still in phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 40/20 is nothing at all unusual for Atlanta.... It's not terribly unusual, but it would be a stark contrast to how this winter has been so far (since December 1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's not terribly unusual, but it would be a stark contrast to how this winter has been so far (since December 1). I lived in Paulding County for 8 years up until 2011, and it seemed like we had at least 20 days a winter that were 40F or lower. The strong northwest flow behind fronts always kept us cloudy in the 30s and 40s when it could be 50 or higher from Athens to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 EPS builds an ok +PNA in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I lived in Paulding County for 8 years up until 2011, and it seemed like we had at least 20 days a winter that were 40F or lower. The strong northwest flow behind fronts always kept us cloudy in the 30s and 40s when it could be 50 or higher from Athens to Charlotte. Agree, winters have changed........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 EPS builds an ok +PNA in the LR The lower heights across the southern US is interesting, gets stronger as it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The lower heights across the southern US is interesting, gets stronger as it goes. Caught that too, along with the higher than normal heights in the northeast. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Problem would be we are quickly loosing the confluence and the high. Sounds like the same tale of the last few winters. Even last winter was the same way. The high moved offshore with the February 12th-13th storm and we lost our cold air feed, which turned us over to sleet (though we did go back over to snow with the ULL on the following morning/afternoon). That storm was interesting as the intense CAD had kept temperatures at 21 for the entire storm here, but temperatures warmed up into the mid-30s the following afternoon when the ULL came through. In addition, the early March ice storm here turned over to rain at the end here as the high moved offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Here goes that polar vortex split I've been patiently waiting for, even this minor SSWE is having a profound effect on the vortex... I would like to see the heights come up over the Barents Sea & Scandinavia for further wave driving/heat flux, but that doesn't appear likely for at least the next 10-14 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Sounds like the same tale of the last few winters. Even last winter was the same way. The high moved offshore with the February 12th-13th storm and we lost our cold air feed, which turned us over to sleet (though we did go back over to snow with the ULL on the following morning/afternoon). That storm was interesting as the intense CAD had kept temperatures at 21 for the entire storm here, but temperatures warmed up into the mid-30s the following afternoon when the ULL came through. In addition, the early March ice storm here turned over to rain at the end here as the high moved offshore. +NAO ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 LOL...I love my daily laughs from this forum.. I put up the CMC, GFS and EURO 12z runs side by side on my FB. I rekon I will do a video later. Most of yall know what it will be about tho...COLD!! LOL https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS just looks "meh" in the LR. However the GFS PARA is interesting there is some major cold air hanging around in Canada just after 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS just looks "meh" in the LR. However the GFS PARA is interesting there is some major cold air hanging around in Canada just after 240. I'll take the GFS lr its active with a western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The para is the New LR guru for day 10-15. However from day 3-10 the gfs and gfs para are still what they always have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I've finally completed my weeklong MJO phase by phase analysis. The following two attachments summarize my surprising findings....yes, coldest within certain phases within the COD! For an explanation and much more details, go here if interested: . http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45286-optimal-mjo-path-for-cold-it-isnt-what-many-think/#entry3226246 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 great work, Larry!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I agree. Great work Larry and VERY interesting wrt Phases 7 and 8. Would have thought colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Are you ready for a wild ride on the weather coaster?? LOL A lot of changes coming to the forecast and pattern. New video is up. Let me know what y'all think. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Thanks, Chris and Tnwxnut. I was surprised, myself. Technically, however, phases 7 and 8 are actually quite cold on average...but only when they are under 1.0 amplitude (in COD)! That's the catch/surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Thanks, Chris and Tnwxnut. I was surprised, myself. Technically, however, phases 7 and 8 are actually quite cold on average...but only when they are under 1.0 amplitude (in COD)! That's the catch/surprise. I wonder if it makes any difference where it enters the COD? Your data shows that phase 8 COD is the best. But what I'm wondering is if it had previously entered that area from phase 8 or if it had entered that area from a warmer phase? It may not matter. I was just curious if you saw anything there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I wonder if it makes any difference where it enters the COD? Your data shows that phase 8 COD is the best. But what I'm wondering is if it had previously entered that area from phase 8 or if it had entered that area from a warmer phase? It may not matter. I was just curious if you saw anything there. 1) CR, Fantastic Q! I'll check that out ASAP and will report back to you. 2) Folks, Regarding the 7 listed cold COD periods in the linked thread, note that a solid -NAO existed only in/near the 1977 and 1996 noted periods. Also, the -AO wasn't persistently solidly negative in/near the 1988, 2000, and 2003 noted periods. In other words, the Pacific, alone, with the help of the favorable parts of the COD MJO is fully capable of allowing for a lengthy solid cold period even without good -AO/-NAO type blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 great work, Larry!! Agreed.. that's a very interesting analysis Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I like what the Euro is depicting for NC right after the cold spell. If that confluence in the NE can hang around a little longer we could be in business. Weak impulses coming out of the SW with enough cold air in place can get this party started. I sure hope so. I am going to be po'd if all we get out if this extreme cold are outrageous heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I sure hope so. I am going to be po'd if all we get out if this extreme cold are outrageous heating bills. This should make you happy, best week 3/4 of the CFS I have seen in a while. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20150102.z500.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.