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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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Just bumping this thread, as it still remains pertinent.  Snowfall next Saturday for the Carolinas?  It's only six days out...

 

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The ground temperatures look a little warm, but rates can overcome that!  :D

 

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True confession:  This post is mainly to jab at those looking forward to spring, since they love to joyfully pronounce the end of winter.  Spring is just the harbinger of summer.  Who wants that?  Long live winter!!

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Although I wouldn't yet bet on any specifics for NC, parts of NC getting measurable snow around then wouldn't at all be shocking , especially considering the weak Niño, which is more conducive for late snows than most or all other ENSO.

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 As the chart below shows for the E 1/4 of the US through 3/21, the vast majority did well with snowfall vs. normals until you get down to S/SE NC (south of RDU), most of GA..say ATL area-GVL south (far N GA did quite well and there was also a major ZR for a good part of N GA), and SC (though I believe that upstate SC got a good bit of ZR and/or sleet, which doesn't show too well in the snowfall #). Of course, those areas are much more hit and miss from winter to winter and, therefore, harder to predict vs normals.

 

 Asheville's 8.6" normal through 3/21 does look low to me. I thought it was close to 12". Even so, they were slightly above normal. I do wonder if there are any other normals that are off in this chart. Charlotte's 4.2" looks about right.

 

 Actually, ATL didn't even make the chart because it is too far west.

 

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True confession:  This post is mainly to jab at those looking forward to spring, since they love to joyfully pronounce the end of winter.  Spring is just the harbinger of summer.  Who wants that?  Long live winter!!

Now there is the truth!  Bless you for your steadfastness, and right thinking!  Never give up, and go kicking and screaming :)  The only perfect season is fading, but it ain't blinked out yet, lol. T

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Now there is the truth!  Bless you for your steadfastness, and right thinking!  Never give up, and go kicking and screaming :)  The only perfect season is fading, but it ain't blinked out yet, lol. T

 

Tony,

 The 12Z Doc says you're right. Don't you usually say wait at least til after Easter to declare winter over?

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I hope it snows hard on the folks wanting more. That said snow is hardly ever more than a novelty this time of year in the southeast. 10:1 ratios will be exceedingly hard to get in late March/ early April.

 

Well said, sir.  Kudos.  :D

 

I still tend toward the chances of this coming to fruition as highly unlikely, but I can still dream...

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